Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 is shaped by the federal government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while sharply cutting new temporary resident targets, including a 49% drop in international students and 37% reduction in temporary workers. These measures, introduced in late 2025, seek to bring the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and Statistics Canada data indicate that outflows of non-permanent residents are offsetting permanent inflows and natural increase, resulting in flat or contracting population growth through mid-2026. Trader consensus assigning 62.5% probability to a decline reflects these verified policy-driven reductions in net migration.