Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено50% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
50% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Объем
$6,832Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Объем
$6,832Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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