Recent legal setbacks have kept trader sentiment balanced around the 53% "No" implied probability. Spain’s Supreme Court refused to extend the amnesty law to Puigdemont’s malversación charges despite a favorable CJEU ruling, preserving active arrest warrants and leaving his return contingent on a pending Constitutional Court decision. At the same time, the Junts leader’s September interview outlined concrete return scenarios and a plan to “immerse” himself in Catalonia this autumn, signaling political momentum if the amnesty clears. Upcoming TC deliberations, any fresh government negotiations, and symbolic October dates tied to the procés remain the clearest swing factors that could shift the market decisively in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено42% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
42% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent legal setbacks have kept trader sentiment balanced around the 53% "No" implied probability. Spain’s Supreme Court refused to extend the amnesty law to Puigdemont’s malversación charges despite a favorable CJEU ruling, preserving active arrest warrants and leaving his return contingent on a pending Constitutional Court decision. At the same time, the Junts leader’s September interview outlined concrete return scenarios and a plan to “immerse” himself in Catalonia this autumn, signaling political momentum if the amnesty clears. Upcoming TC deliberations, any fresh government negotiations, and symbolic October dates tied to the procés remain the clearest swing factors that could shift the market decisively in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Объем
$6,702Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent legal setbacks have kept trader sentiment balanced around the 53% "No" implied probability. Spain’s Supreme Court refused to extend the amnesty law to Puigdemont’s malversación charges despite a favorable CJEU ruling, preserving active arrest warrants and leaving his return contingent on a pending Constitutional Court decision. At the same time, the Junts leader’s September interview outlined concrete return scenarios and a plan to “immerse” himself in Catalonia this autumn, signaling political momentum if the amnesty clears. Upcoming TC deliberations, any fresh government negotiations, and symbolic October dates tied to the procés remain the clearest swing factors that could shift the market decisively in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Объем
$6,702Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent legal setbacks have kept trader sentiment balanced around the 53% "No" implied probability. Spain’s Supreme Court refused to extend the amnesty law to Puigdemont’s malversación charges despite a favorable CJEU ruling, preserving active arrest warrants and leaving his return contingent on a pending Constitutional Court decision. At the same time, the Junts leader’s September interview outlined concrete return scenarios and a plan to “immerse” himself in Catalonia this autumn, signaling political momentum if the amnesty clears. Upcoming TC deliberations, any fresh government negotiations, and symbolic October dates tied to the procés remain the clearest swing factors that could shift the market decisively in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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