China's government established a 4.5-5% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March Two Sessions, marking the lowest since the 1990s amid ongoing property sector contraction and subdued domestic consumption. First-quarter GDP rose 5% year-on-year in April data from the National Bureau of Statistics, exceeding expectations of 4.8% and fueled by robust exports and manufacturing alongside fiscal stimulus measures. IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts cluster around 4.4-4.8%, anchoring trader consensus at 75.5% for 4.0-5.0% while assigning 19.8% to 5.0-6.0% on potential Q2 momentum; persistent real estate drags and policy responses will shape the full-year outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 76%
5,0–6,0% 19.2%
6,0–7,0% 2.1%
3,0–4,0% 2.0%
$515,541 Объем
$515,541 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
76%
5,0–6,0%
19%
6,0–7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 76%
5,0–6,0% 19.2%
6,0–7,0% 2.1%
3,0–4,0% 2.0%
$515,541 Объем
$515,541 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
$41,191 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$40,116 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$20,784 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$42,806 Объем
2%
4,0–5,0%
$130,133 Объем
76%
5,0–6,0%
$47,904 Объем
19%
6,0–7,0%
$45,827 Объем
2%
7,0–8,0%
$43,992 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$19,714 Объем
<1%
9,0%+
$83,075 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government established a 4.5-5% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March Two Sessions, marking the lowest since the 1990s amid ongoing property sector contraction and subdued domestic consumption. First-quarter GDP rose 5% year-on-year in April data from the National Bureau of Statistics, exceeding expectations of 4.8% and fueled by robust exports and manufacturing alongside fiscal stimulus measures. IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts cluster around 4.4-4.8%, anchoring trader consensus at 75.5% for 4.0-5.0% while assigning 19.8% to 5.0-6.0% on potential Q2 momentum; persistent real estate drags and policy responses will shape the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$515,541Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government established a 4.5-5% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March Two Sessions, marking the lowest since the 1990s amid ongoing property sector contraction and subdued domestic consumption. First-quarter GDP rose 5% year-on-year in April data from the National Bureau of Statistics, exceeding expectations of 4.8% and fueled by robust exports and manufacturing alongside fiscal stimulus measures. IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts cluster around 4.4-4.8%, anchoring trader consensus at 75.5% for 4.0-5.0% while assigning 19.8% to 5.0-6.0% on potential Q2 momentum; persistent real estate drags and policy responses will shape the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$515,541Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's government established a 4.5-5% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March Two Sessions, marking the lowest since the 1990s amid ongoing property sector contraction and subdued domestic consumption. First-quarter GDP rose 5% year-on-year in April data from the National Bureau of Statistics, exceeding expectations of 4.8% and fueled by robust exports and manufacturing alongside fiscal stimulus measures. IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts cluster around 4.4-4.8%, anchoring trader consensus at 75.5% for 4.0-5.0% while assigning 19.8% to 5.0-6.0% on potential Q2 momentum; persistent real estate drags and policy responses will shape the full-year outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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