Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and framework for further nuclear talks, but the text remains undisclosed and the nuclear provisions unresolved. Under the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, any comprehensive agreement must be transmitted to Congress within five days, triggering a 30-day review window for a disapproval resolution. Bipartisan senators, including Republicans Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, have publicly demanded submission, briefings, and a vote, citing durability concerns and conditions such as limits on enrichment and missile activities. Trader consensus at 51% Yes reflects uncertainty over whether a final, approvable deal will be finalized and formally submitted this calendar year versus an executive framework that bypasses or delays congressional action. Key variables that could shift probabilities include release of detailed terms, Senate Republican unity behind conditions, Israeli compliance pressures, or breakdown in the ongoing 60-day negotiations.