**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” on congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 because U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled amid deep disagreements over sequencing, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day window for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions waivers, and related issues under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), but indirect talks mediated by Qatar have produced no final agreement. Recent statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance highlight Iran’s refusal to accept “meaningful” enrichment reductions or verifiable constraints, while Tehran continues to assert its enrichment rights and conditions any concessions on upfront U.S. sanctions relief and asset releases. Congressional Republicans have largely backed the administration’s approach, with symbolic war-powers resolutions passing in divided votes that underscore partisan limits on broader diplomacy. These factors have kept the odds heavily against any deal reaching the floor for formal approval before year-end.