Recent national polling in Canada shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding consistent double-digit leads over the Conservatives, with August 2026 surveys placing Liberals at 44-47% support versus 27-31% for the opposition. Seat projections from multiple analysts reflect this gap, forecasting substantial Liberal gains from Conservative-held ridings if an election were held now. These trends follow the Liberals' 2025 plurality victory, their subsequent attainment of a parliamentary majority through by-elections and floor crossings, and sustained approval ratings into 2026. The resulting trader consensus of roughly 95% against Conservative seat flips in 2026 polls stems from the absence of meaningful momentum shifts for the opposition. Late developments such as economic shocks, major policy reversals, or unexpected leadership changes could still narrow gaps before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent national polling in Canada shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding consistent double-digit leads over the Conservatives, with August 2026 surveys placing Liberals at 44-47% support versus 27-31% for the opposition. Seat projections from multiple analysts reflect this gap, forecasting substantial Liberal gains from Conservative-held ridings if an election were held now. These trends follow the Liberals' 2025 plurality victory, their subsequent attainment of a parliamentary majority through by-elections and floor crossings, and sustained approval ratings into 2026. The resulting trader consensus of roughly 95% against Conservative seat flips in 2026 polls stems from the absence of meaningful momentum shifts for the opposition. Late developments such as economic shocks, major policy reversals, or unexpected leadership changes could still narrow gaps before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Объем
$8,095Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent national polling in Canada shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding consistent double-digit leads over the Conservatives, with August 2026 surveys placing Liberals at 44-47% support versus 27-31% for the opposition. Seat projections from multiple analysts reflect this gap, forecasting substantial Liberal gains from Conservative-held ridings if an election were held now. These trends follow the Liberals' 2025 plurality victory, their subsequent attainment of a parliamentary majority through by-elections and floor crossings, and sustained approval ratings into 2026. The resulting trader consensus of roughly 95% against Conservative seat flips in 2026 polls stems from the absence of meaningful momentum shifts for the opposition. Late developments such as economic shocks, major policy reversals, or unexpected leadership changes could still narrow gaps before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Объем
$8,095Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent national polling in Canada shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding consistent double-digit leads over the Conservatives, with August 2026 surveys placing Liberals at 44-47% support versus 27-31% for the opposition. Seat projections from multiple analysts reflect this gap, forecasting substantial Liberal gains from Conservative-held ridings if an election were held now. These trends follow the Liberals' 2025 plurality victory, their subsequent attainment of a parliamentary majority through by-elections and floor crossings, and sustained approval ratings into 2026. The resulting trader consensus of roughly 95% against Conservative seat flips in 2026 polls stems from the absence of meaningful momentum shifts for the opposition. Late developments such as economic shocks, major policy reversals, or unexpected leadership changes could still narrow gaps before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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