Brennan Day holds an 88.5% implied probability in the Courtenay-Comox riding as the Conservative incumbent who secured the seat by just 93 votes in the 2024 election. Traders assign this dominant position to his established local profile, record as rural health and seniors critic, and the riding’s recent shift toward Conservatives amid a snap provincial election called for October 24, 2026. Will Cole-Hamilton of the NDP, the main challenger and former local councillor, sits at 6.5%, reflecting limited momentum despite party leader visits and health-care emphasis. Minor candidates Jay Van Oostdam (Green) and Jason Cook (CentreBC) trail at 0.5% and 0.1%, consistent with historical vote shares in this four-candidate contest. Advance voting concluded October 21 with final results expected shortly after polls close.