Gavin Newsom holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination amid a fragmented field of more than 40 options, with Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez close behind as no candidate has formally declared. The tight spread stems from limited name recognition for many governors and senators, varying early polling that sometimes favors Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg, and debates over general-election viability versus progressive base appeal. Recent market movement shows Ossoff gaining on Newsom through heightened visibility, while structural factors like primary timing and midterm results could shift positioning before any decisive separation emerges in the still-distant race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%4%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the pack of potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominees, reflecting her growing support in an early primary state.
Kamala Harris confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged she is considering a 2028 presidential campaign, marking her most open remarks about her political future and maintaining her position as a top contender.
Jon Ossoff's market price rises amid 2026 reelection campaign momentum
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%
Jon Ossoff's market price increased in August 2026 reflecting growing confidence in his 2026 Senate reelection prospects and potential 2028 presidential candidacy.
Yahoo/YouGov poll shows Gavin Newsom surging to front of Democratic primary pack
A late August 2026 Yahoo/YouGov poll showed Gavin Newsom with 21% support among Democratic-leaning voters, slightly ahead of Kamala Harris, reinforcing his front-runner status despite market price declines.
Andy Beshear hints at 2028 presidential run amid rising national profile
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear’s active role in 2026 midterms and public statements about considering a presidential run increased his visibility as a potential 2028 candidate.
Jon Ossoff's Senate reelection campaign gains momentum in Georgia
Jon Ossoff rises to 13%1%
Ossoff's improving position in the 2026 Senate race increased his visibility but only modestly improved his market odds for the presidential nomination.
Pete Buttigieg leads latest Emerson College poll for 2028 Democratic nomination
Pete Buttigieg rises to 6%1%
Buttigieg's poll lead reinforced his status as a top contender, contributing to a modest increase in his market price.
Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
In late July 2026, Kamala Harris stated she was "thinking about" running for president in 2028, maintaining her frontrunner status in polls and stabilizing her market position despite competition from rising candidates.
Kamala Harris officially secures Democratic presidential nomination
Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%
Kamala Harris won enough delegate votes to become the official Democratic presidential nominee, solidifying her position despite lower market odds compared to some rivals.
Kamala Harris endorses Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson after last-minute nomination
Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%
Kamala Harris's endorsement of Troy Jackson on July 25, 2026, demonstrated her ongoing involvement in Democratic politics and maintained her visibility, though her market odds remained steady.
Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 run with public appearances and book tour
Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%
Harris maintained steady polling and market support by engaging in public events and a book tour, reinforcing her position as a top contender despite no formal campaign announcement.
Pete Buttigieg signals potential 2028 presidential run in media appearances
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, while campaigning for Democrats in early primary states, indicated he is considering a 2028 presidential bid, maintaining his status as a leading candidate in early polls.
Gavin Newsom faces criticism over California's economic and social challenges
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%4%
Newsom faced scrutiny for California's high poverty and homelessness rates, which may have contributed to the decline in his market odds in mid-2026.
Polling shows Josh Shapiro among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination
New polling placed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro among the leading Democratic contenders for 2028, highlighting his growing national recognition and potential candidacy.
Gavin Newsom publicly weighs 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom drops to 19%5%
Newsom's public statements about considering a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms increased his visibility and market interest, though his price declined slightly from earlier highs during the analysis window.
Polling shows Jon Ossoff among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%
Polls released in late July 2026 showed Jon Ossoff gaining favor as a potential 2028 nominee, despite his public statements that he is not running, reflecting market optimism about his prospects.
Jon Ossoff climbs to second place in 2028 Democratic nomination polls despite denial of candidacy
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%
Polling and market data in late July showed Ossoff rising to a strong second place in the 2028 Democratic nomination race, despite his public denials of running, pushing his market price to 15%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads New Hampshire Democratic poll for 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%7%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Ocasio-Cortez narrowly leading the Democratic field, boosting her market price from 8% to 15%. This reflected growing progressive enthusiasm and her emergence as a party ideological leader.
Poll shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading New Hampshire Democratic primary field
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 15%1%
A University of New Hampshire poll released in late July 2026 showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the top pick among potential Democratic contenders, boosting her market price and signaling growing support within the party's progressive wing.
Poll shows Jon Ossoff among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination despite his denial
Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%9%
An Emerson College poll included Jon Ossoff as a possible 2028 Democratic nominee for the first time, showing him at 13% support, increasing his market visibility despite his repeated denials of running.
Emerson College poll shows Jon Ossoff tied for third in 2028 Democratic primary
Jon Ossoff rises to 16%2%
A new poll including Ossoff for the first time showed him tied with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for third place, reflecting growing recognition and supporting his rising market price.
Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%2%
An Emerson poll conducted July 19-20, 2026, showed Jon Ossoff receiving 13% support, tying with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and indicating his rising stature in the 2028 Democratic primary field.
Polls show Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez among top Democratic contenders for 2028 nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 15%1%
Recent polls placed Ocasio-Cortez as a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, which corresponded with a rise in her market price and increased media attention.
Poll shows Ossoff among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination despite denial
Jon Ossoff rises to 16%2%
An Emerson College poll included Ossoff as a top choice for the 2028 Democratic nominee for the first time, showing him tied with Ocasio-Cortez and above Kamala Harris, despite his repeated denials of running.
CNN polling crowns Jon Ossoff as new frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%4%
CNN polling data showed a surge in interest for Jon Ossoff, with Google searches up 300% and market odds climbing, marking him as a rising contender despite his public denials of running.
CNN analyst names Jon Ossoff as potential 2028 Democratic nominee frontrunner
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%2%
CNN analyst Harry Enten highlighted Ossoff's rising popularity and potential as the 2028 Democratic nominee, coinciding with a surge in Google searches and market odds, boosting his perceived viability.
CNN analyst predicts Jon Ossoff could be 2028 Democratic nominee
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%2%
CNN analyst Harry Enten highlighted Ossoff's rising profile and potential as the Democratic nominee, coinciding with a surge in his market price and public interest.
Jon Ossoff surges as 2028 Democratic frontrunner in CNN polling and prediction markets
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%3%
CNN polling and prediction markets showed a surge in interest for Jon Ossoff as a leading 2028 Democratic contender, coinciding with a 300% increase in Google searches and rising market odds despite his denials of running.
Jon Ossoff surges in polls and prediction markets as 2028 Democratic frontrunner
Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%7%
Jon Ossoff's profile rose sharply due to viral campaign speeches and favorable polling, leading to a significant increase in his market odds and media recognition as a leading 2028 contender.
Criticism mounts over Kamala Harris's viability as 2028 nominee despite polling lead
Despite leading some polls, Kamala Harris faced growing criticism from commentators and donors questioning her electability and campaign effectiveness, which kept her market odds stagnant.
CNN analyst declares Jon Ossoff a frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%2%
CNN analyst Harry Enten highlighted Ossoff's surge in popularity and media attention, noting his rise in prediction markets and Google searches, which boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Jon Ossoff emerges as a top contender despite denying 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%4%
In late July 2026, Jon Ossoff's profile surged with viral speeches and increased polling support, making him a leading contender in prediction markets even as he publicly denied plans to run for president in 2028.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains progressive support during 'Fighting Oligarchy' tour with Bernie Sanders
Ocasio-Cortez's active campaigning with Sanders energized her progressive base and media attention, supporting her market position as a leading nominee contender.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez considered a top Democratic leader with 2028 front-runner status in New Hampshire poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%4%
A New Hampshire poll showed AOC leading potential Democratic candidates for 2028, solidifying her status as a party ideological leader and increasing market interest.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains renewed attention as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%2%
Ocasio-Cortez's evolving rhetoric and national tour with Bernie Sanders have increased her visibility and support among progressive Democrats ahead of 2028.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hints at 2028 presidential run during campaign events
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while campaigning for progressive candidates, did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, signaling her ambition to change the country and energizing her progressive base.
Jon Ossoff ties Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Emerson poll for 2028 Democratic nomination
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%2%
In the July 19-20 Emerson poll, Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez both polled at 13%, marking a notable rise for Ossoff and reinforcing his growing stature in the race, which was reflected in market price increases.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading among potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential nomination, highlighting her rising influence within the party despite mixed opinions on her electability.
Jon Ossoff's 2028 presidential momentum grows amid strong fundraising and rising profile
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%4%
By July 20, 2026, Ossoff's fundraising success and growing national profile, including endorsements and campaign strength, boosted his market odds significantly during the analysis window.
Pete Buttigieg leads 2028 Democratic primary in new Emerson College poll
Pete Buttigieg rises to 19%1%
An Emerson College poll released in July 2026 showed Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic field for 2028, reinforcing his position as a front-runner and contributing to his market price increase.
Jon Ossoff intensifies attacks on Trump in 2026 Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%3%
Ossoff's aggressive stance against Trump and his administration during his 2026 reelection campaign raised his national profile, fueling speculation about his presidential prospects and driving up his market odds.
Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff ties Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 13% support
Jon Ossoff rises to 13%3%
The Emerson poll conducted July 19-20 showed Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 13% support for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reflecting Ossoff's rising stature in the race despite his public denials of running.
Jon Ossoff intensifies anti-Trump messaging in 2026 reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
Ossoff's strong anti-Trump rhetoric and campaign fundraising surge in mid-2026 raised his profile as a 2028 contender, impacting his market price positively after prior declines.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerges as party ideological leader amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%
Following a New Hampshire poll showing her as a frontrunner, Ocasio-Cortez solidified her role as a progressive leader, though some Democrats remain uncertain about her presidential viability, reflected in a market rise from 8% to 14%.
Veteran strategist James Carville says Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has no shot at 2028 Democratic nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 13%2%
On July 18, 2026, James Carville publicly stated that AOC has no chance at winning the Democratic nomination, which tempered some enthusiasm and may have contributed to a slight market correction for her odds.
Jon Ossoff gains attention with strong anti-Trump messaging and fundraising
Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff increased his national profile through vocal opposition to Donald Trump and significant fundraising, positioning himself as a potential 2028 presidential candidate despite challenges in his 2026 Senate re-election race.
Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump
Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%
On July 15, 2026, Ossoff's pointed questioning of Jay Clayton, Trump's nominee for national intelligence director, and his vocal opposition to Trump administration policies raised his national profile and contributed to a significant rise in his market odds.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a rising Democratic star with viral speeches
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%
Jon Ossoff's viral speeches criticizing Donald Trump and his growing media presence increased his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, reflected in a significant rise in market odds during July 2026.
Justice Department investigation into Gavin Newsom surfaces amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%
Reports of a Justice Department investigation into Newsom led to negative media coverage and market skepticism, causing his nomination odds to decline during mid-July 2026.
Jon Ossoff aggressively challenges Trump nominee at Senate hearing
Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%11%
Jon Ossoff gained national attention by questioning Jay Clayton, Trump's nominee for national intelligence director, on the legitimacy of the 2020 election, enhancing his profile as a strong Trump critic and potential 2028 candidate.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leading 2028 Democratic nomination race
A new poll showed Gavin Newsom leading among Democratic primary contenders for 2028, boosting his market price and reinforcing his front-runner status.
Jon Ossoff questions Trump nominee during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff publicly challenged President Trump's nominee for national intelligence director on the legitimacy of the 2020 election, raising his profile as a vocal opponent of Trump and boosting his standing as a 2028 presidential contender.
Jon Ossoff rises in polls and prediction markets as 2028 Democratic nominee contender
Jon Ossoff jumps to 15%12%
Senator Jon Ossoff's profile surged with viral speeches and strong fundraising, leading to increased polling support and prediction market odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Jon Ossoff targets Republican opponent over Epstein files in new ad
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Ossoff's aggressive campaign tactics in his 2026 Senate race increased his visibility but did not translate into higher market odds for the presidential nomination.
Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff among top 2028 Democratic contenders
Jon Ossoff jumps to 15%9%
In July 2026, Emerson College polling included Jon Ossoff as a leading option for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the first time, boosting his market support from 6% to 15%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff gain in polls and prediction markets
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%6%
By mid-July 2026, polls and prediction markets showed rising support for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff, narrowing the gap with Gavin Newsom and reflecting increased public interest and speculation about their potential candidacies.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increases national campaigning and fundraising for 2028 positioning
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%6%
AOC ramped up her national presence and fundraising efforts in mid-2026, boosting her profile as a potential 2028 candidate and contributing to her market price increase from 9% to 15%.
Pete Buttigieg to keynote Iowa Democratic Party’s Liberty & Justice dinner, signaling 2028 run
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg's keynote at a major Iowa event increased his visibility in a key early primary state, supporting a price rise from 4% to 5%.
Pete Buttigieg leads in Emerson College poll for 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg topped a new Emerson College poll as the leading choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, boosting his market odds.
Gavin Newsom campaigns nationally ahead of 2026 midterms, hints at 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%
Newsom's national campaign tour to support Democrats and his statements about considering a 2028 presidential run after midterms helped maintain his status as a top contender, though his market price declined slightly.
Poll shows Kamala Harris beating Gavin Newsom by double digits for 2028 nomination
A July 2026 national poll found Kamala Harris leading Gavin Newsom by 17.6 points, reinforcing her early advantage in the Democratic field, though her market odds remained lower than Newsom's.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads new national Democratic poll for 2028 nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 13%5%
A May 2026 AtlasIntel poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field nationally with 26% support, boosting her market odds and signaling her rising prominence as a potential candidate.
Gavin Newsom campaigns in Nevada amid criticism from Republicans
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%2%
Newsom's Nevada campaign tour to support Democrats drew Republican criticism highlighting California's issues, which may have pressured his market price downward amid concerns about electability in swing states.
Kamala Harris signals 2028 presidential ambitions during National Action Network Convention
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
At the 2026 National Action Network Convention, Kamala Harris stated she was "thinking about" running for president in 2028, maintaining her profile as a potential candidate despite mixed reactions.
Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Gavin Newsom in 2028 Democratic primary
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%
A July 2026 poll by Echelon Insights showed Kamala Harris with a 7-point lead over Gavin Newsom, indicating a shift in voter preference and contributing to Newsom's declining market price.
Gavin Newsom launches national tour to boost Democrats and lay groundwork for 2028 run
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Governor Gavin Newsom began a national political swing including Nevada and the South to support Democrats in the 2026 midterms and build relationships for a potential 2028 presidential campaign, influencing his market position.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in polls amid speculation of 2028 run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 16%7%
Ocasio-Cortez's support rose sharply in early July polls, reaching a high of 16%, as she kept her options open about a presidential run and gained recognition as a progressive leader, boosting her market price.
Reports suggest Jon Ossoff laying groundwork for 2028 presidential run with national ad buys
Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%
Reporting indicated that Senator Jon Ossoff has spent significant campaign funds on ads in early primary and swing states outside Georgia, signaling preparation for a 2028 presidential run. This increased his market odds despite his public denials of interest.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in national polls and fundraising
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%
AOC's increased national campaigning and fundraising efforts led to a significant rise in her polling and market price from 9% to 14%, reflecting growing support as a potential 2028 nominee.
Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff surge in 2028 Democratic nomination prediction markets
Polymarket data showed Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff increasing their chances significantly, with Ossoff doubling his odds to 14% and Ocasio-Cortez rising to 14%, while Newsom's odds declined, reflecting shifting market confidence.
Rahm Emanuel delivers critical speech on Israel-US relations in Tel Aviv
Emanuel's speech criticizing Netanyahu and addressing the US-Israel relationship raised his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez national campaigning and fundraising boost 2028 prospects
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%7%
AOC increased her national presence and fundraising efforts in mid-2026, which helped raise her market price from 8% to 15% by early August, reflecting growing market confidence in her candidacy.
Investigation and poll damage Gavin Newsom's frontrunner status
Gavin Newsom drops to 19%5%
Reports of a Justice Department investigation into Gavin Newsom and a poll showing Kamala Harris narrowly leading Newsom contributed to a decline in Newsom's market price from 24% to around 19-20%, reflecting concerns about his electability and legal challenges.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum with increased visibility and polling support
Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%8%
Jon Ossoff's market price rose from 6% to 14% over the analysis window, with notable jumps in early July 2026 due to increased visibility and favorable polling, signaling growing viability as a nominee.
Rahm Emanuel tours early primary states, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions
Rahm Emanuel's visits to New Hampshire and South Carolina, along with media appearances, indicated serious consideration of a 2028 presidential run, raising his profile among Democratic voters.
Justice Department probe into Gavin Newsom and wife announced
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%2%
A Justice Department investigation into Gavin Newsom and his wife over possible tax issues related to nonprofit groups was reported, causing a decline in Newsom's market price from 21% to 19%.
Poll shows Kamala Harris narrowly leads Gavin Newsom in ranked-choice simulation
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
A Lake Research Partners poll conducted in early May showed a competitive field with Kamala Harris narrowly leading Gavin Newsom 52% to 48% in a ranked-choice voting simulation, within the margin of error, reflecting a tight race and influencing market prices.
Poll reveals Democratic voters' skepticism toward Gavin Newsom's 2028 prospects
Gavin Newsom drops to 19%5%
A Daily Mail/JL Partners poll showed 27% of Democrats supporting a Justice Department probe into Newsom, reflecting skepticism that contributed to a decline in his market price from 24% to 19% in early July.
Pete Buttigieg endorses Jocelyn Benson in Michigan gubernatorial primary
Pete Buttigieg endorsed Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson for governor, signaling his active engagement in Democratic politics and maintaining his market presence around 5%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ramps up national campaigning and fundraising for 2028 bid
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%6%
In early July 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increased her national presence and fundraising efforts, which boosted her market price from 9% to 15% by early August, reflecting growing support.
JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will lead 2028 Democratic race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%
On July 3, 2026, JD Vance publicly predicted that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be the leading Democratic candidate for 2028, boosting her market odds from 8% to 14%.
Vice President JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will lead 2028 Democratic race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%
Vance's public prediction elevated Ocasio-Cortez's profile, contributing to a price increase from 8% to 14%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate Primary
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez waded into her first contested Senate primary of the 2026 cycle by endorsing progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, signaling her growing influence and leadership within the national party.
Fox News contributor predicts Kamala Harris will be 2028 Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
Fox News contributor Clay Travis predicted Kamala Harris would be the Democratic nominee in 2028, citing her polling strength and support among Black voters, which reinforced her market position despite some internal party skepticism.
Fox News Poll Shows Jon Ossoff Holding Double-Digit Lead in Georgia Senate Race
Jon Ossoff rises to 13%3%
A new Fox News poll showed incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Mike Collins by 13 points, reinforcing his image as a highly electable and rising star in the Democratic Party.
Kamala Harris says she is 'thinking about' running in 2028 presidential election
At the National Action Network Convention on July 1, 2026, Kamala Harris publicly stated she was considering a 2028 presidential run, maintaining her market position around 9%.
Jon Ossoff denies plans to run for president in 2028 amid rising speculation
Jon Ossoff dips to 10%2%
Despite rising market odds and media buzz, Jon Ossoff publicly stated he has no interest in a 2028 presidential run, which may have tempered further price increases.
Vice President JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as leading 2028 Democratic candidate
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%6%
JD Vance publicly named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the likely Democratic nominee for 2028, sparking media attention and a temporary boost in her market odds.
Gavin Newsom faces backlash over podcast with conservative guests
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Newsom's hosting of conservative figures on his podcast and controversial comments caused backlash within the Democratic Party, leading to a decline in his market price from highs earlier in June.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run amid mixed party support
Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%
Harris publicly stated she was 'thinking about' running in 2028, maintaining a national profile with book tours and speeches, but faced skepticism from some major donors and party figures, resulting in modest market movement.
JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be 2028 Democratic nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%3%
Republican Vice President JD Vance publicly named Ocasio-Cortez as the expected Democratic frontrunner for 2028, prompting media buzz and a viral response from Ocasio-Cortez, which further boosted her market odds.
JD Vance names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as expected 2028 Democratic frontrunner
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 11%2%
Vice President JD Vance singled out Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the likely 2028 Democratic nominee, sparking a viral exchange and boosting her market odds.
Vice President JD Vance names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as leading 2028 Democratic candidate
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
JD Vance publicly predicted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be the leading Democratic nominee in 2028, sparking media attention and a positive market reaction that boosted her price from 8% to 9%.
Jon Ossoff gains media attention amid 2028 speculation
Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%7%
Despite denying plans to run, Ossoff's viral speeches and rising media profile increased his market price from 7% to 14%, reflecting growing public interest and speculation about his candidacy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez responds to JD Vance's prediction of her 2028 nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%
Following JD Vance's public prediction that Ocasio-Cortez would be the leading Democratic nominee in 2028, she responded positively, fueling speculation and increasing her market odds during early July.
Kamala Harris Reaches Out to Progressives and Pro-Palestinian Activists
Kamala Harris dips to 6%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris held private meetings with progressive leaders, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, to build bridges ahead of 2028, though the outreach drew mixed reactions and skepticism from some party factions.
Jon Ossoff Reiterates He Has No Interest in Running for President in 2028
Jon Ossoff rises to 11%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff flatly denied any presidential ambitions to CNN, stating he is laser-focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.
Senator Jon Ossoff doubles down on denial of 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff rises to 11%1%
Despite growing online support and speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, Jon Ossoff publicly denied any interest in running, emphasizing his focus on the 2026 Senate race, which paradoxically kept him in the spotlight.
Jon Ossoff Adamantly Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run
Senator Jon Ossoff doubled down on his refusal to run for president in 2028, stating he is laser-focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign, which cooled his rising market odds.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's cross-country tour fuels fresh 2028 presidential buzz
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%
Ocasio-Cortez's national appearances and speeches, including at civil rights events, renewed speculation about her 2028 presidential ambitions, supporting a market price rise from 9% to 12%.
JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the 2028 Democratic nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%
Vice President JD Vance singled out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the expected 2028 Democratic frontrunner, prompting a viral response from the congresswoman and boosting her market price.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez responds to JD Vance's prediction of her 2028 nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%
JD Vance publicly predicted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be the leading Democratic candidate for president in 2028. Ocasio-Cortez's wry and noncommittal response was widely reported, fueling speculation and boosting her market odds from 9% to 14%.
Jon Ossoff denies 2028 presidential run amid rising speculation
Despite rising market odds and public speculation, Ossoff repeatedly stated he has no interest in running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his Senate reelection campaign.
Jon Ossoff publicly denies 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing focus on 2026 Senate race
Jon Ossoff rises to 14%2%
Despite rising speculation and market odds, Jon Ossoff reiterated he is not running for president in 2028, focusing on his 2026 Senate reelection, which tempered some market enthusiasm but maintained his elevated profile.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez responds wryly to JD Vance's 2028 nomination prediction
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance predicted Ocasio-Cortez as the leading Democratic candidate for 2028, and she responded with a wry smile and hopeful comment, which boosted her market price.
Senator Jon Ossoff flatly denies 2028 presidential ambitions to CNN
Senator Jon Ossoff reiterated that he is not running for president in 2028 and is entirely focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign, temporarily cooling some market speculation.
Senator Jon Ossoff Reiterates He Has Zero Interest in Running for President in 2028
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%
Despite growing online support and media speculation, Senator Jon Ossoff issued a firm statement denying any interest in a 2028 presidential run, calling the chatter a distraction.
AOC Responds to JD Vance's Prediction That She Will Be the 2028 Democratic Nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 11%1%
Vice President JD Vance predicted that Ocasio-Cortez would be the Democratic nominee in 2028, prompting a quick-witted response from her that fueled further media buzz and raised her market odds.
Jon Ossoff reiterates he is not running for president in 2028 amid rising speculation
Jon Ossoff dips to 6%3%
Despite rising market odds and media speculation, Ossoff publicly denied any interest in running for president in 2028, focusing on his 2026 Senate reelection campaign, which caused some market fluctuations.
AtlasIntel Poll Places Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the Top of Potential 2028 Democratic Field
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%
A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading potential Democratic contenders with 26 percent support, boosting her market odds significantly.
Jon Ossoff Adamantly Denies 2028 Presidential Ambitions
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%
Despite a surge in prediction market odds and national buzz, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly ruled out a 2028 presidential run, stating he is entirely focused on his competitive 2026 Georgia Senate reelection race.
Kamala Harris courts progressive leaders amid 2028 presidential speculation
Kamala Harris reached out to progressive figures like NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, signaling possible 2028 ambitions, but this did not significantly boost her market price, which remained low.
Vice President JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be 2028 Democratic nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%
JD Vance publicly named Ocasio-Cortez as the likely Democratic nominee in 2028, which sparked media attention and a subtle but positive response from Ocasio-Cortez, boosting her market price significantly.
Senator Jon Ossoff publicly rules out 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff dips to 9%1%
On June 29, 2026, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly stated he would not launch a presidential campaign for 2028, despite rising speculation and social media buzz. This announcement likely contributed to a temporary price dip or slowed growth in his nomination odds.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez cruises to primary victory, fueling 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%
Ocasio-Cortez's decisive primary win in New York solidified her position as a leading progressive voice and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in her market price rising from 9% to 12%.
Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies in Georgia went viral, showcasing his sharp criticism of Donald Trump and resonating with Democratic voters. Despite his repeated denials of interest in running for president, his rising profile and fundraising success increased his market odds from 6% to 10%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins Democratic primary, boosting 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%
AOC's decisive primary victory in New York solidified her position as a leading progressive voice and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in her market price rising from 9% to 12%.
Tucker Carlson reveals Trump views Gavin Newsom as a 2028 threat
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%1%
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson disclosed that former President Donald Trump considers Gavin Newsom a viable contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, which reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status despite ongoing challenges.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear positions for 2028 presidential run during 2026 midterms campaign
Andy Beshear dips to 2%4%
Beshear's active campaigning for Democrats in key 2026 races and his moderate positioning in a red state increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Andy Beshear positions himself for 2028 presidential run during midterms campaign
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear actively campaigned for Democrats in 2026 midterms while signaling his intention to run for president in 2028, enhancing his national profile and market interest.
Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation
Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%
Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies gained viral attention, increasing his national profile and market odds despite his repeated denials of presidential ambitions. This energized Democratic voters and raised his viability as a 2028 contender.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear campaigns in key 2026 races, signaling 2028 ambitions
Beshear's active campaigning and high approval ratings in a red state increased market confidence, reflected in his price stabilizing around 2%.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gains traction as potential 2028 presidential candidate
Andy Beshear dips to 2%1%
By mid-2026, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear was gaining popularity and polling as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, rising to around 2-3% in markets and polls, reflecting growing national attention.
Poll places Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as leading 2028 Democratic candidate
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%
An AtlasIntel poll showed Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field with 26% support, surpassing Harris and Newsom. This boosted her market odds from 8% to 14%, reflecting increased confidence in her candidacy.
Poll shows Kamala Harris's early lead tightening as Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez gain support
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
A McLaughlin poll indicated a tightening race among top Democratic contenders, with Kamala Harris's support declining while Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gained ground, reflecting shifting voter preferences.
New poll shows Kamala Harris's support waning amid calls for fresh Democratic candidates
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
A poll and donor sentiment in late June indicated declining enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 bid, with party leaders favoring fresh faces, contributing to her market price decline from 9% to 7%.
McLaughlin & Associates Poll Shows Kamala Harris Leading 2028 Field but with Tightening Support
A new national survey showed Kamala Harris leading Democratic voters with 26% support, but her early dominant lead continued to tighten as other potential candidates gained traction.
Kamala Harris market price declines amid skepticism about 2028 run
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
Despite earlier hints at running, skepticism grew about Harris's chances for the 2028 nomination, reflected in a market price decline from 9% to 6%, as some commentators questioned her viability and recent political impact.
Gavin Newsom and Wife Under Federal Investigation, Governor Claims Political Motivation
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under federal investigation, framing the probe as a politically motivated attack by Donald Trump due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.
Tucker Carlson reveals Trump views Gavin Newsom as viable 2028 Democratic nominee
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson disclosed that former President Donald Trump considers Gavin Newsom a strong contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status despite challenges.
Andy Beshear’s support rises in polls for 2028 presidential speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear showed a notable increase in polling support for a potential 2028 presidential run, reflecting growing recognition of his moderate appeal and electoral success in a red state.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces AI Data Center Moratorium Act
Ocasio-Cortez sponsored legislation addressing AI regulation, highlighting her progressive policy focus and maintaining her national profile ahead of 2028.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins primary, fueling 2028 presidential bid speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's easy primary victory in New York boosted her political clout and reignited speculation about a 2028 presidential run, leading to increased market prices for her nomination chances.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Cruises to Primary Victory as Socialists Sweep New York
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%3%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily defeated her primary challenger Marty Dolan, while three Democratic Socialists of America candidates swept their own primaries in New York City, boosting her 2028 presidential speculation.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals 2028 presidential interest
Andy Beshear has made media appearances and comments indicating he is considering a 2028 presidential run, supported by high approval ratings and bipartisan appeal, though he has not formally announced.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins New York Democratic primary
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily defeated a primary challenger in New York's 14th District, solidifying her political standing and fueling speculation about a 2028 run.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th Congressional District
Ocasio-Cortez securing her House nomination reinforced her political standing and potential as a 2028 presidential contender, impacting her market price positively.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secures Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th Congressional District
Ocasio-Cortez's renomination solidified her political base and maintained her national profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%
Axios reported that Gavin Newsom has been cultivating closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, emphasizing Biden's legislative record to secure Democratic goodwill. This strategic positioning reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status, maintaining his market lead despite a slight price dip.
Gavin Newsom aligns with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom cultivated closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, praising Biden's legislative record, which helped maintain his frontrunner status despite some market volatility.
Gavin Newsom embraces Joe Biden ahead of 2028 primary
Gavin Newsom publicly aligned himself with Joe Biden, betting that embracing the former president would be more popular among Democrats than distancing himself. This strategic positioning aimed to consolidate support within the party for his 2028 bid.
Jon Ossoff's Campaign Raises Over $1 Million in 24 Hours Following GOP Runoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%
Following the confirmation of his Republican opponent, Ossoff's general election campaign raised over $1 million in a single day, demonstrating his formidable fundraising power and national appeal.
Prediction Markets Price Jon Ossoff as 2028 Contender While Gavin Newsom Cools Off
Gavin Newsom dips to 21%3%
Traders heavily backed Jon Ossoff in 2028 nomination contracts, closing his gap with other top contenders, while former frontrunner Gavin Newsom experienced a slight decline in his market share.
New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff as Ideal 2028 Presidential Candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 13%4%
A prominent opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg in The New York Times detailed why Jon Ossoff is seen as an ideal candidate to bridge party divides, sparking national buzz and driving his prediction market price to its peak.
Jon Ossoff gains attention as a 2028 Democratic prospect amid Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff, while focused on his 2026 Senate reelection in Georgia, gained national attention as a potential 2028 presidential candidate due to his strong opposition to Trump and effective campaigning, influencing market perceptions of his viability.
Media highlights Jon Ossoff as rising Democratic star and 2028 contender
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%
On June 18, media coverage emphasized Ossoff's growing momentum and appeal as a young, authentic Democratic leader with strong fundraising and viral campaign videos, reinforcing his status as a leading 2028 presidential prospect and supporting the market price increase to 10%.
Jon Ossoff seen as 2028 presidential prospect but must win 2026 Senate race
Analysis highlighted Ossoff as a potential 2028 candidate contingent on winning his 2026 Senate reelection in Georgia, affecting his market price which had declined due to election risks.
Media analysis highlights Jon Ossoff's rising 2028 presidential prospects after Senate race
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%
Media coverage emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success, reinforcing market confidence and sustaining his elevated price near 10%.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral campaign speech boosting 2028 speculation
Jon Ossoff jumps to 15%9%
Ossoff's May 31 rally speech went viral, increasing his profile and market odds despite his repeated denials of a 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 6% to 15%.
Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies fuel 2028 presidential speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's energetic and viral campaign speeches increased his visibility and market odds from 6% to 10%, despite his repeated denials of presidential ambitions. His appeal as a Southern Democrat in a swing state attracted attention as a potential future nominee.
Jon Ossoff gains attention with viral campaign speech in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff's 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta went viral, boosting his profile and contributing to a rise in his market price from 7% to 10% in mid-June.
Jon Ossoff's 2026 Senate campaign boosts 2028 presidential speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Media coverage highlighted Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success. His viral campaign speeches and fundraising momentum increased market confidence, raising his nomination odds from 6% to 9%.
Analysis Highlights Jon Ossoff as a Rising 2028 Democratic Presidential Contender
Jon Ossoff dips to 9%1%
On June 18, 2026, media analysis emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success. This coverage reinforced market confidence, sustaining his elevated price near 10%.
Jon Ossoff emerges as a top 2028 Democratic prospect amid re-election campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%
Ossoff's rising profile as a potential 2028 candidate was highlighted by media and political analysts, despite his focus on winning the 2026 Senate race, boosting his polling and market odds from 9% to 12%.
Jon Ossoff Floated as 2028 Contender Ahead of Crucial 2026 Reelection Test
Jon Ossoff dips to 10%2%
Media analysis highlighted Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate, noting that a victory in his highly competitive 2026 Georgia Senate race would prove his broad appeal.
Federal investigation into Gavin Newsom raises questions but may bolster his 2028 chances
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%
Newsom announced he and his wife are under federal investigation, which initially caused some market uncertainty but ultimately may have rallied Democratic voters around him, keeping his price near 24-25% before a slight decline.
Jon Ossoff Becomes Internet Sensation and Potential 2028 Contender
Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%
National media highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff's growing momentum and viral campaign videos, framing him as a leading next-generation prospect for the 2028 nomination.
Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, raising questions about the impact on his 2028 presidential ambitions and causing a decline in his market price.
Gavin Newsom reveals federal investigation, boosting 2028 nomination odds
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a Department of Justice investigation, which increased media attention and paradoxically boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds despite potential risks.
Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rally sparks 2028 presidential speculation
Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%5%
Ossoff's viral speech and growing online support increased his market odds from 7% to 12%, despite his public denials of presidential ambitions, reflecting rising enthusiasm among Democrats.
Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%
Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife were under federal investigation, which introduced uncertainty about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats rallied around him viewing the probe as politically motivated, the market price for his nomination odds declined from 25% to around 20%.
Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run
Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%
The Washington Post reported that Newsom’s office confirmed a federal investigation into his administration on June 17. The announcement sparked speculation that legal trouble could derail a 2028 presidential bid, prompting the market’s price for Newsom to fall from a high of 27 % on June 15 to 20 % by July 1.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%6%
Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with market price peaking at 13% on June 17 before settling at 9%.
New York Times Opinion Piece Asks 'Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President'
Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%
A prominent New York Times opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg detailed why Jon Ossoff is seen as an ideal 2028 presidential candidate, sparking national buzz and driving his prediction market price to a peak.
Jon Ossoff Profiled as Rising Internet Sensation and Potential 2028 Contender
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%
A major profile by The New York Times highlighted Jon Ossoff's growing status as a Democratic internet sensation and potential 2028 presidential candidate, boosting his market odds.
DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions
Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%
A Washington Post report revealed that the DOJ had opened a federal investigation into Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife. The news sparked speculation that the probe could either damage his presidential prospects or rally Democratic voters, prompting a modest but noticeable decline in Newsom’s market price from the mid‑20s to the low‑20 % range by the end of June.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral 30-minute campaign speech boosting 2028 contender buzz
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%
Jon Ossoff's viral campaign speech in Atlanta increased his national profile and market confidence as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, contributing to a price rise from 9% to 10%.
Jon Ossoff's Senate runoff against Mike Collins intensifies 2028 speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%
The June 16 runoff election in Georgia between Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins heightened Ossoff's profile as a 2028 presidential contender, leading to a significant increase in his market odds.
Trump-Endorsed Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff
Representative Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, setting up a high-stakes Senate battle against Jon Ossoff, who is widely viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender.
Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, becoming Jon Ossoff's opponent in the 2026 Senate election. This improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, as a strong Senate position is seen as a stepping stone for presidential ambitions.
Georgia GOP Senate primary runoff concludes with Mike Collins as nominee to face Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
The Republican primary runoff ended with Mike Collins winning, setting up a high-stakes general election against Jon Ossoff. The divided GOP primary and Collins' nomination improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds from 6% to 9%.
Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff, Setting Up High-Stakes Race Against Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%
The conclusion of the Georgia Republican primary runoff set up a high-stakes general election matchup, boosting Ossoff's national profile and 2028 presidential speculation.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run during Vienna visit
Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris hinted at a 2028 presidential bid during a public appearance in Vienna, reinforcing her status as a frontrunner and maintaining steady market interest.
Jon Ossoff Publicly Rejects 2028 Presidential Speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%
Despite growing chatter and rising prediction market odds, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly stated he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, calling the speculation a distraction.
Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run speculation
Jon Stewart acknowledged public calls for him to run for president in 2028, attributing the interest to public dissatisfaction, but has not committed to a campaign, keeping his market odds low.
Media profiles tout Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as potential 2028 unity candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
Major features in the New York Times and Politico highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff's strong reelection polling and potential as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender, causing his prediction market odds to surge.
Gavin Newsom Preemptively Discloses Federal Investigation Into Himself and His Wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video announcing that he and his wife are under federal investigation, claiming the probe is politically motivated due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.
Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation into himself and wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%
Newsom publicly revealed a federal investigation into him and his wife, which briefly dented his presidential odds as concerns about his viability surfaced, contributing to a price decline from 25% to around 21%.
California Governor Gavin Newsom accuses DOJ of politically motivated investigation
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%
Newsom publicly claimed that the Trump administration's DOJ was investigating him and his wife as political retaliation linked to his potential 2028 presidential run. This controversy contributed to volatility and a slight decline in his market odds.
Gavin Newsom Claims DOJ Opened Investigation Into Him and His Wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
California Governor Gavin Newsom reported that the Department of Justice opened an investigation into him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, which he claimed was politically motivated.
DOJ investigation into Gavin Newsom and wife surfaces amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%
Newsom revealed that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, which he claims is politically motivated due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This news added controversy and pressure, contributing to a decline in his market price.
Politico Highlights Jon Ossoff as a Strong Potential 2028 Democratic Ticket Contender
An analysis by Politico argued that Georgia Senators Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock are highly likely to be on the 2028 Democratic ticket, highlighting Ossoff's appeal as an articulate, next-generation candidate.
Gavin Newsom Announces He and His Wife Are Under Federal Investigation
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under a federal DOJ investigation, claiming it is a politically motivated attack by Donald Trump due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.
Jon Ossoff gains 2028 presidential buzz with viral anti-Trump speech
Jon Ossoff plunges to 9%41%
Senator Jon Ossoff's viral speech criticizing Donald Trump increased his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, despite his public denials, leading to a rise in market odds and fundraising success.
Gavin Newsom maintains lead amid ongoing 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%2%
Despite some price fluctuations, Gavin Newsom's market price stabilized around 25% as he continued to be viewed as the early front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination, supported by his public statements and political positioning.
Gavin Newsom rises in 2028 Democratic nomination odds amid DOJ investigation speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 21%3%
Newsom's odds increased as he became the top contender in prediction markets, driven by reports of a DOJ investigation he framed as politically motivated, raising his profile and market confidence.
Jon Ossoff gains national attention as 2028 contender amid Senate reelection
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile and viral campaign style have made him a notable 2028 Democratic contender, though he publicly denies presidential ambitions, contributing to fluctuating market odds.
The 2028 Democratic ticket speculation grows around Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%
Political analysis suggested Ossoff as a key figure in the 2028 Democratic ticket, increasing market interest and supporting his price rise to 9%. This speculation was tied to his strong social media presence and campaign momentum.
Democrats praise Jon Ossoff as rising star and potential 2028 contender
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%
Democratic commentators and media outlets highlighted Ossoff's strong campaign and appeal, dubbing him a top contender for 2028. This positive buzz contributed to his market price peaking at 9% on June 13 and sustaining elevated interest.
Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he claims is politically motivated by President Donald Trump due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement led to a decline in Newsom's market price from the mid-20s to the low 20% range, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy.
Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, which raised concerns about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats might rally around him if the probe is seen as politically motivated, the announcement caused a decline in his market odds.
California Governor Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation into him
Gavin Newsom drops to 21%5%
Newsom revealed that the US Department of Justice is investigating him, which raised concerns and led to a decline in his market price from 26% to 21%. This legal scrutiny affected perceptions of his viability as the 2028 Democratic nominee.
Gavin Newsom opposes California billionaire tax amid political pressure
Gavin Newsom drops to 21%5%
Newsom mounted a campaign to stop a proposed California billionaire tax, which was seen as a political battle affecting his image and market odds. This opposition coincided with a decline in his market price as concerns about affordability and political challenges grew.
Newsom's DOJ investigation raises his 2028 presidential odds
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Newsom's revelation of a Department of Justice investigation in mid-June 2026 paradoxically boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, reflecting increased media attention and political positioning.
Poll shows Pete Buttigieg surging past Kamala Harris in 2028 Democratic primary support
Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%
A new poll indicated Pete Buttigieg overtaking Kamala Harris in Democratic primary support, signaling challenges for Harris's candidacy and contributing to a decline in her market price during this period.
Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video claiming that he and his wife are under federal investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argued was a politically motivated attack targeting him as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Gavin Newsom announces balanced California state budget for 2026-27
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Newsom's announcement of a balanced state budget on June 15, 2026, reinforced his image as a capable leader, briefly boosting his market odds before a gradual decline later in the window.
Gavin Newsom reveals DOJ investigation into him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice opened an investigation into him, which he claimed was politically motivated. This development introduced political risk and contributed to a decline in his market odds.
Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Democratic 2028 field with strong support
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
A poll released in mid-June showed Kamala Harris leading the Democratic field with 50% support among Democrats, reinforcing her position as a top contender despite a slight decline in market odds later.
Gavin Newsom confirms he is evaluating a 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Gavin Newsom publicly stated he is seriously considering a 2028 presidential run following the 2026 congressional elections, reinforcing his frontrunner status. This announcement helped stabilize his market price around 24-25%.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum in Democratic nomination market
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
Ossoff's market price rose from 7% to 9% by June 13, 2026, reflecting growing perception of his viability as a candidate, bolstered by his Senate race performance and broad appeal within the Democratic Party.
Pete Buttigieg to keynote Iowa Democratic event, fueling 2028 speculation
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 12%7%
Pete Buttigieg was announced as the keynote speaker for a major Iowa Democratic event, signaling his continued national presence and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run.
Gavin Newsom Hosts Hunter Biden on Podcast for Extended Interview
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom hosted Hunter Biden on his podcast for a 95-minute interview, drawing national media attention to his platform as he continues to build his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 run.
Opinion piece criticizes Gavin Newsom's 2028 prospects amid Midwest skepticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%
An opinion article highlighted skepticism about Gavin Newsom's appeal in key Midwestern states, citing his COVID-19 restrictions and French Laundry dining scandal, which contributed to a decline in his market odds.
Early polling shows Kamala Harris as 2028 Democratic frontrunner with Gavin Newsom second
Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%
Polls in June 2026 confirmed Kamala Harris leading the Democratic field, with Gavin Newsom consistently in second place, reflecting the early sorting of the field and influencing market prices accordingly.
Opinion piece argues Kamala Harris should not be 2028 Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
A USA Today opinion column criticized Kamala Harris's chances and highlighted her 2024 loss and perceived lack of progress, which likely contributed to her stagnant market price during June 2026.
New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff as Ideal 2028 Candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%
An influential opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg in The New York Times argued that Ossoff is the ideal candidate for the 2028 Democratic nomination, further fueling prediction market interest despite his denials.
Hunter Biden jokes about running as Gavin Newsom's VP in 2028
During Gavin Newsom's podcast, Hunter Biden jokingly said he would run in 2028 only as Newsom's vice president, which attracted media attention and briefly influenced market sentiment around Newsom's campaign positioning.
Joe Biden hints at 2028 run but only as Gavin Newsom's vice president
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
On June 11, 2026, President Joe Biden hinted at a 2028 presidential run but stated he would only run as Gavin Newsom's vice president, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status and impacting his market price.
Kamala Harris faces declining support as backers seek fresh Democratic candidates
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential ambitions faced skepticism from major donors and party leaders who preferred fresh faces, contributing to a decline in her market odds during this period.
Kamala Harris faces skepticism from former allies seeking fresh Democratic faces
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
Reports revealed that some former supporters of Harris prefer new candidates like Newsom or Ocasio-Cortez, dampening enthusiasm for her 2028 bid and contributing to a decline in her market odds.
Kamala Harris faces donor skepticism for 2028 bid
Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%
Reports emerged that some of Harris's 2024 backers were hesitant to support her 2028 campaign, citing concerns about appeal to swing voters. This likely contributed to a slight decline or stagnation in her market price.
Jon Ossoff viral anti-Trump speech sparks 2028 front-runner predictions
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a viral speech sharply criticizing Donald Trump, which led to increased market interest and a rise in his odds as a potential 2028 Democratic nominee, despite his public denials of interest in running.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear announces 2025 was state's biggest tourism year
Beshear's announcement of record tourism success in Kentucky highlighted his effective governance and growing national profile, supporting his 2028 presidential prospects.
Jon Ossoff publicly denies 2028 presidential run amid rising speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff emphatically stated he is not running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his tight Senate reelection campaign in Georgia. Despite his denial, prediction markets doubled his odds, reflecting increased investor belief in his potential candidacy.
Former allies express doubts about Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential prospects, favoring fresh candidates
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
Reports emerged that influential Democratic donors and former supporters of Kamala Harris prefer a fresh candidate for 2028, leading to a decline in her market price from 9% to 7%.
Jon Ossoff's Senate prominence and fundraising boost his profile
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising and visibility as a key Democratic figure in Georgia increased his appeal as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to a steady rise in his market price from 6% to 8%.
Kamala Harris admits thinking about 2028 presidential run amid mixed donor enthusiasm
Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%
Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential bid, but reports indicated lukewarm enthusiasm from major donors and some party figures, reflecting uncertainty about her prospects and impacting her market position.
Kamala Harris' 2028 Ambitions Face Blow as Former Backers Seek Fresh Faces
Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%
Reports emerged that former allies and major donors are unenthusiastic about a repeat performance by Kamala Harris, preferring a fresh candidate for the 2028 ticket.
Kentucky tourism hits record $14.6 billion economic impact in 2025
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear highlighted Kentucky's tourism growth as part of his successful governance record, bolstering his national profile and presidential prospects.
Kamala Harris purchases $8.15 million Malibu home amid 2028 speculation
Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%
Kamala Harris and her husband bought a high-profile Malibu mansion in June 2026, signaling personal and political stability that may influence perceptions of her 2028 candidacy, though her market price slightly declined from 8% to 7% by mid-June amid mixed donor enthusiasm.
Andy Beshear announces Kentucky's record tourism year in 2025
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear announced 2025 as the state's best tourism year ever, highlighting economic growth and boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, reflected in a slight market increase from 2% to 3%.
Former backers urge Kamala Harris to step aside for fresh 2028 Democratic candidates
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
Reports emerged that some of Kamala Harris's former supporters prefer new faces for the 2028 nomination, citing a need for a fresh candidate. This sentiment contributed to a decline in her market odds from 9% to 6%.
Rahm Emanuel tests 2028 presidential bid with campaign efforts in New Hampshire
Emanuel's campaign activities in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, serve as a test of his viability for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Prediction Markets Start Pricing Jon Ossoff as 2028 Contender for President
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
As Senator Jon Ossoff's 2026 Senate reelection campaign gained momentum, prediction markets began warming to him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, lifting his odds.
Gina Raimondo Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run, Endorses Open Primary
Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo distanced herself from the 2028 presidential race, pouring cold water on a potential run and advocating for a competitive, open primary for the Democratic ticket.
Prediction markets warm to Jon Ossoff as 2028 contender amid strong Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
Jon Ossoff's market price rose as prediction markets recognized his viability for 2028, boosted by his strong position in the 2026 Georgia Senate race and broad appeal within the Democratic Party.
Jon Ossoff Rejects 2028 Presidential Speculation as 'Fantasy Football'
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%1%
Despite growing online enthusiasm and comparisons to Barack Obama, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly stated he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms.
Kamala Harris faces donor skepticism and calls for fresh Democratic candidates
Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, considering a 2028 presidential bid, encountered skepticism from some former donors and supporters who expressed a preference for new, fresh voices in the Democratic Party. This sentiment contributed to a decline in her market price from 9% to 7%.
The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
An influential New York Times opinion article titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President" was published, boosting Ossoff's profile and market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13. The piece emphasized Ossoff's appeal and potential despite his denials of presidential ambitions, increasing market enthusiasm.
Jon Ossoff gains national attention with viral campaign speeches
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%
Ossoff's viral speeches and effective messaging increased his profile and fundraising, leading to a rise in his market odds from about 6% to 10% and beyond.
Op-Ed praises Jon Ossoff as compelling anti-corruption messenger for 2028
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
A New York Times opinion piece highlighted Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 nominee. This positive media coverage contributed to a gradual increase in his market price during June.
Op-Ed highlights Jon Ossoff as a compelling 2028 Democratic presidential prospect
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
A New York Times opinion piece praised Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, increasing market interest in his potential 2028 presidential candidacy despite his denials. This media attention coincided with a price increase from 7% to 9%.
New York Times highlights Jon Ossoff as a compelling 2028 Democratic prospect
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
The New York Times published an opinion piece praising Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, comparing him to Barack Obama and positioning him as an ideal 2028 candidate. This media endorsement contributed to a rise in his market odds from 7% to 9%.
New York Times Column Highlights Growing Democratic Desire for Jon Ossoff Presidential Run
An influential opinion piece in The New York Times detailed why Democrats are increasingly viewing Senator Jon Ossoff as an ideal 2028 presidential contender, boosting his national profile.
Jon Ossoff viral anti-Trump speech sparks 2028 front-runner predictions
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a viral speech sharply criticizing Donald Trump, which increased his national profile and led to predictions that he could become a front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination. This boosted market confidence in Ossoff's chances.
New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff's Profile as Ideal 2028 Candidate
An influential opinion piece in The New York Times highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff as a premier potential 2028 candidate, sparking a wave of online enthusiasm and driving his market price upward.
Media profiles and rising buzz position Senator Jon Ossoff as a potential 2028 unity candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Prominent features in national outlets like the New York Times and Politico touted Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as a leading 2028 contender, causing his prediction market odds to rise.
New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
An influential New York Times opinion article published on June 8, 2026, praised Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, boosting his market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13, signaling growing perception of his viability despite his denials of presidential ambitions.
Jon Ossoff criticizes Trump and allies at Atlanta rally, energizing Democratic base
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
At a campaign rally in Atlanta, Jon Ossoff sharply criticized Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Stephen Miller, framing Americans as united by ideas rather than ethnicity. This speech helped rally Democratic supporters and contributed to Ossoff's rising market price.
Rahm Emanuel to assail Netanyahu in Tel Aviv speech amid shifting US-Israel relations
Emanuel's high-profile speech criticizing Netanyahu and addressing US-Israel relations raised his national profile and fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run.
Jon Ossoff praised as Democratic dream for 2028 in New York Times op-ed
Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%
A June 7 op-ed highlighted Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, contributing to his market rise from 8% to 10% and increasing his visibility as a 2028 contender.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she is "thinking about" running again in 2028, briefly supporting her market price around 7-9%, though her odds later declined amid skepticism about her viability.
Georgia Republican Senate Primary Ends in Runoff to Challenge Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
The Republican primary to challenge Senator Jon Ossoff ended in a runoff between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley. The failure of the GOP to quickly unite behind a single challenger boosted Ossoff's reelection outlook and his 2028 presidential market odds.
Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
Ossoff exerted influence behind the scenes to oust Nikema Williams as Georgia Democratic Party Chair, citing concerns about her dual roles and leadership effectiveness. This internal party conflict highlighted Ossoff's strategic positioning ahead of his reelection campaign, impacting market sentiment.
Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity prepare for Pennsylvania gubernatorial showdown
The upcoming Pennsylvania governor race between Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity has drawn national attention, with Shapiro's strong position bolstering his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting his market odds.
Gavin Newsom hits peak market support amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
Newsom's market price peaked at 27% on June 1, 2026, reflecting heightened optimism about his candidacy following his final State of the State speech and increased media attention positioning him as a leading contender.
Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Following his vote supporting resolutions to restrict arms sales to Israel, Ossoff faced backlash from Jewish leaders and community members in Georgia, including criticism from the Israeli consul general and his childhood synagogue's rabbi. This controversy likely influenced market perceptions, contributing to Ossoff's price increase.
Kamala Harris leads new polls as potential 2028 Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris rises to 10%1%
Multiple polls in early June showed Kamala Harris leading the Democratic field with significant support, boosting her market odds temporarily despite later declines.
Gavin Newsom maintains lead in fragmented 2028 Democratic nomination market
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Despite fluctuations, Newsom remains the front-runner with about 25% market probability, reflecting sustained trader confidence.
Gavin Newsom signals 2028 presidential ambitions after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%4%
Gavin Newsom publicly stated he is considering a 2028 presidential run, indicating he will decide after the 2026 midterm elections. This announcement increased market confidence in his nomination chances, pushing his price from 23% to 27%.
Jon Ossoff centers 2026 campaign on rooting out corruption amid opponent scandals
Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%8%
Ossoff's focus on anti-corruption messaging amid opponent scandals helped solidify his position in the Senate race, influencing his market price.
Gavin Newsom faces backlash over remarks during book tour stop in Atlanta
Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%
Newsom's comments about his SAT score and struggles with dyslexia during his Atlanta book tour stop sparked criticism from conservatives and LGBTQ+ advocates, contributing to a decline in his market price from 25% to 20%.
Josh Shapiro positions himself for 2028 presidential run amid reelection campaign
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro launched his 2026 reelection campaign while signaling national ambitions for 2028, increasing his visibility and market interest despite his public reluctance to discuss a presidential bid.
Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Atlanta boosting reelection and 2028 profile
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff held a joint campaign rally with gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, energizing the Democratic base and increasing his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to his market price rise from 5% to 7%.
Jon Ossoff centers reelection campaign on rooting out corruption
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff emphasized anti-corruption in his 2026 reelection campaign, energizing his base and maintaining his market position despite a challenging race.
Jon Ossoff Delivers Major Campaign Speech in Atlanta Rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
On May 31, 2026, Jon Ossoff gave a 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta, emphasizing his opposition to Trump and appealing to a broad coalition. This event increased his visibility and contributed to a gradual rise in his market price from 5% to 7% in early June.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral anti-corruption speech at Atlanta rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%
Ossoff's 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta went viral, boosting his national profile and positioning him as a compelling 2028 Democratic prospect despite his focus on the 2026 Senate race. This increased market interest and polling support for Ossoff.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral campaign speech in Atlanta rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
Jon Ossoff's 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta energized his supporters and increased his visibility as a 2028 presidential prospect, contributing to a rise in his market odds from 6% to 7% shortly after.
Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Mike Collins secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, endorsed by Donald Trump, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This heightened Ossoff's profile and market interest in his potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 5% to 7%.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff's May 31 rally speech in Atlanta gained viral attention, boosting his profile and contributing to a significant rise in his market odds despite his denials of a 2028 presidential run.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.
Jon Ossoff Launches High-Profile Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta to Boost Reelection Bid
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff held a major joint campaign rally with gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms at The Tabernacle in Atlanta, delivering a powerful speech that energized the Democratic base and highlighted their head start over Republicans.
Jon Ossoff Kicks Off Reelection Campaign with Viral Speech in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful 30-minute campaign speech at a rally in Atlanta, which quickly went viral on social media and sparked widespread speculation about his 2028 presidential potential.
Jon Ossoff delivers energetic campaign speech in Atlanta emphasizing voting rights and grassroots movement
Ossoff's May 31 speech in Atlanta critiqued current administration policies and called for protecting voting rights and building a broad coalition, energizing his base and contributing to a gradual increase in his market price.
Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms Hold Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held a joint campaign rally in Atlanta, demonstrating party unity and boosting Ossoff's visibility as a key leader.
Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms hold joint campaign rally in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held a joint rally signaling a united Democratic front in Georgia ahead of the 2026 midterms, boosting Ossoff's visibility and support, which correlated with a rise in his market price.
Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms Hold Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held their first joint campaign rally in Atlanta, demonstrating party unity and boosting Ossoff's visibility as a key leader.
Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic presidential polls with 18% support
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 5%45%
Buttigieg's active campaigning and national profile have propelled him to the top of early 2028 Democratic primary polls, influencing market prices.
Pete Buttigieg leads 2028 Democratic primary in Emerson College poll
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 5%45%
A May 2026 Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading the 2028 Democratic primary field, reflecting his active campaigning and growing national profile.
Pete Buttigieg leads Emerson College poll for 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 6%44%
Buttigieg's lead in a major poll boosted his visibility and market odds, reflecting growing support among Democratic voters for his potential candidacy.
Pete Buttigieg Surges to Lead in New 2028 Democratic Primary Poll
A national survey showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary field, edging out Gavin Newsom.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rallies support for Democratic candidate Sam Forstag in Montana
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%4%
Ocasio-Cortez's active campaigning for Democratic candidates nationwide, including Montana, reinforced her national profile and potential 2028 ambitions.
Pete Buttigieg leads 2028 Democratic primary in Emerson College poll
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 18%14%
A new Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading the pack of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, boosting his market odds and signaling growing national support.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer rules out 2028 presidential run
Whitmer publicly announced she will not run for president in 2028, removing a potential contender and maintaining a fragmented Democratic field. This clarified the candidate landscape but had limited direct impact on market prices.
Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom Leading 2028 Field
A national survey by Emerson College Polling showed Pete Buttigieg leading the hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary field with 18% support, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%.
Gretchen Whitmer Walks Back Statement Ruling Out 2028 Presidential Run
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer initially stated she would not make a bid for the White House in 2028, but quickly walked back the statement, keeping her options open and maintaining the highly fragmented nature of the Democratic field.
Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom Leading Crowded 2028 Field
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
A national survey by Emerson College Polling showed Pete Buttigieg leading with 18% support, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, highlighting a highly competitive and fragmented early field.
Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic presidential polls
Polls in mid-2026 showed Pete Buttigieg leading among potential Democratic 2028 presidential candidates, reinforcing his market position as a serious contender despite no formal campaign announcement.
Emerson College Poll Places Pete Buttigieg in the Lead for 2028 Democratic Primary
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
A national poll by Emerson College showed Pete Buttigieg leading the prospective 2028 Democratic field with 18% support, followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigns in Montana, signaling 2028 ambitions
Ocasio-Cortez held a rally in Missoula, Montana, supporting a congressional candidate, signaling increased political activity and possible presidential ambitions, which supported her steady market price around 9%.
Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
A new Emerson College poll released on May 28, 2026, identified Pete Buttigieg as the top potential contender in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, with 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters. This poll influenced market perceptions but did not significantly affect Jon Ossoff's price.
Pete Buttigieg tops new 2028 Democratic presidential primary poll
An Emerson College poll placed Buttigieg at 18%, ahead of Newsom and others, boosting his market position.
Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates
On May 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff publicly aligned with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a figure criticized for soft-on-crime policies, which drew Republican attacks and highlighted Ossoff's political positioning in Georgia. This association likely contributed to Ossoff's price movements as it affected perceptions of his electability.
Gavin Newsom publicly confirms considering 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom's public statement about seriously considering a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms increased his visibility and market confidence, causing his price to rise from 18% to 25%.
Gavin Newsom begins national book tour amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom launched a national book tour to boost his 2028 presidential prospects, initially supporting his market price near 24-25%, despite some early criticism.
Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election
Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%
At the National Action Network convention Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton she was “thinking about” a 2028 run. The remark, covered by CNN, increased speculation about her candidacy and corresponded with a gradual slide in her market price from 8 % to 6 % by the end of June.
Axios Reports Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Escalating Moves Toward 2028 Run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
Axios reported that Ocasio-Cortez has transitioned from a speculative long shot to a formidable polling leader, with other potential contenders actively maneuvering around her rise.
Pete Buttigieg leads Emerson College poll for 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg topped a national poll of likely Democratic voters as the preferred 2028 presidential nominee, reflecting his rising national profile and positioning him as a leading contender.
Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic primary polls
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 18%14%
Polls showed Buttigieg as the top choice among Democrats for 2028, reflecting his active campaigning and growing national profile, which influenced market optimism about his chances.
Pete Buttigieg tops New Hampshire poll as leading 2028 Democratic contender
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 12%6%
A New Hampshire poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading potential Democratic presidential candidates, reflecting his strong early-state support and boosting his market position as a frontrunner for 2028.
Jon Ossoff's Scathing Anti-Trump Speech at Atlanta Church Goes Viral, Sparking 2028 Speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a fiery speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church in Atlanta criticizing Donald Trump. The speech went viral on social media, prompting prominent progressive commentators to predict he would become a frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals ambition to change the country, fueling 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
In a May 2026 interview, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expressed her ambition to change the country, which fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run and helped stabilize her market odds after earlier declines.
AOC takes more steps toward 2028 run for president
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signaled her national ambitions by traveling to Montana to campaign for a congressional candidate and refusing to rule out a 2028 White House bid.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
AOC increased her national presence by campaigning in multiple states and endorsing progressive candidates, signaling serious positioning for a possible 2028 presidential bid. This activity contributed to a gradual rise in her market odds from 8% to around 9%.
Pete Buttigieg leads 2028 Democratic primary in Emerson College poll
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
An Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading the pack of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, reflecting his growing national profile and support among Democratic voters.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%
Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president again in 2028 during a speech at the National Action Network convention, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price but also led to mixed reactions about her viability.
Pollster highlights Jon Ossoff's strong messaging to GOP voters ahead of 2028 speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
On May 22, 2026, a Republican pollster praised Jon Ossoff's messaging effectiveness, which contributed to increased market confidence in his viability as a 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, reflected in a price rise from 6% to 7%.
DNC releases 2024 election autopsy report amid pressure including from Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%
The Democratic National Committee released a detailed autopsy report on the 2024 election loss after pressure from party members and Kamala Harris, highlighting challenges that may influence the party's future strategies and Harris's political positioning.
Republican Pollster Praises Jon Ossoff's Messaging Effectiveness
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%
Republican pollster Rich Baris praised Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's populist messaging on Tucker Carlson's podcast, boosting Ossoff's national profile and market confidence in his 2028 viability.
DNC postelection autopsy criticizes Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign
The Democratic National Committee released a detailed postelection autopsy faulting Kamala Harris for writing off rural America and lacking sufficient negative attacks on Donald Trump, which raised doubts about her 2028 presidential prospects and contributed to a decline in her market price.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Harris publicly indicated she is considering a 2028 presidential run during a high-profile event, energizing supporters but facing internal party resistance, which contributed to mixed market and polling signals.
Poll shows Kamala Harris narrowly leads Gavin Newsom in ranked-choice simulation
A Lake Research Partners poll showed Harris leading Newsom 52-48% in a ranked-choice voting simulation, reinforcing her status as a frontrunner and supporting her market position around 9%.
Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Governor Newsom released the 2026‑27 state budget revision, a $349.4 billion plan that highlighted his progressive agenda and reiterated his intent to consider a 2028 presidential bid after the midterms. The high‑visibility budget drew national media coverage and lifted his market price from 24 % to 25 % on May 19, then kept it near that level through early June.
Josh Shapiro-backed Democrats win Pennsylvania House primaries
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Democrats endorsed by Governor Josh Shapiro won key Pennsylvania House primaries, showcasing Shapiro's political strength in a battleground state and bolstering his prospects for a 2028 presidential bid.
Georgia Republican Senate primary heads to runoff to challenge Jon Ossoff
No Republican candidate secured a majority in the May 19 primary, leading to a runoff that delayed the selection of Ossoff's opponent and maintained his strong position, supported by record fundraising, which helped stabilize his market price.
Gavin Newsom speaks at Center for American Progress Ideas Conference, reinforcing national profile
Newsom's appearance at a major policy conference in Washington, D.C., bolstered his national visibility and reinforced his frontrunner status for the 2028 Democratic nomination, supporting his market position around 24-25%.
Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania primary, boosting 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro's primary victory and strong fundraising positioned him as a viable 2028 contender, reflected in a modest increase in his market probability.
Kamala Harris leads most recent national Democratic primary polls
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
Polling conducted May 18-20, 2026, showed former Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reinforcing her status as the early favorite and supporting her stable market position.
Kamala Harris leads Democratic primary polls in May 2026
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
Polling by Rasmussen Reports in mid-May showed Kamala Harris as the favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination, supporting her market price around 8-9%. This reinforced her status as the early frontrunner.
Kamala Harris leads new national Democratic primary poll for 2028 nomination
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
A May 2026 poll showed Kamala Harris leading the Democratic primary field, boosting her visibility and solidifying her status as a front-runner in national polls, though her market odds remained modest.
Josh Shapiro focuses on Pennsylvania reelection, downplays 2028 presidential campaign
Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%
Shapiro concentrated on his 2026 gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania, avoiding early presidential primary states and limiting national campaign activity, contributing to his low market price.
Poll shows Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary field
A Rasmussen Reports poll found Harris leading likely Democratic primary voters with 34% support, reinforcing her status as a front-runner and stabilizing her market odds.
Kamala Harris leads most national 2028 Democratic primary polls
A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 18-20, 2026, showed Kamala Harris as the favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reinforcing her status as a top contender and supporting her steady market price.
Rasmussen poll shows Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic nomination
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 18-20, 2026, showed former Vice President Kamala Harris as the favorite for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, supporting her market position around 10%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made moves consistent with preparing for a possible 2028 presidential campaign, including campaigning outside her district and expanding fundraising, though she has not formally declared.
Democratic candidates Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintain low market prices amid ongoing controversies
Both Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez's market prices remained low due to lingering controversies and challenges within the Democratic Party, reflecting skepticism about their 2028 nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom’s poll surge after high‑profile endorsement by Hollywood star
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
A late‑May endorsement from a major Hollywood figure boosted Newsom’s visibility and poll numbers, nudging his market price slightly higher despite overall market volatility.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential bid in BBC interview
Kamala Harris dips to 9%1%
Kamala Harris expressed openness to running again in 2028 during a BBC interview, fueling speculation and maintaining her profile as a leading contender despite mixed party support and polling. This contributed to modest price fluctuations in her market position.
Josh Shapiro faces scrutiny over handling of harassment claims and security upgrades
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Governor Josh Shapiro's handling of sexual harassment claims and use of taxpayer funds for security upgrades drew criticism, potentially weakening his political standing and contributing to a decline in his market price.
Pete Buttigieg holds event in Cedar Rapids fueling 2028 speculation
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg's public appearances and endorsements in key states increased his visibility and market odds as a potential 2028 candidate.
AtlasIntel Poll Shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leading Potential 2028 Democratic Field
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
An AtlasIntel poll conducted in early May showed progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading potential 2028 Democratic candidates with 26% support, boosting her market odds.
Pete Buttigieg campaigns for Democrats ahead of midterms, signaling 2028 ambitions
Buttigieg's active campaigning for Democrats in key races ahead of the 2026 midterms increased his visibility and speculation about a 2028 presidential run, stabilizing his market price around 4%.
Poll shows Pete Buttigieg leading potential 2028 Democratic field
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
An Emerson College poll found Buttigieg leading among Democratic primary voters, signaling rising support and influencing market prices upward for his nomination chances.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%2%
A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the prospective 2028 Democratic field with 26% support, boosting her market profile.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals possible 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%
AOC's increased campaigning and public statements about her ambitions raised speculation about a 2028 run, though her market price declined amid uncertainty and competition.
Mark Kelly pushes for permanent citizenship for DACA recipients
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
Senator Mark Kelly advocated for immigration reform, raising his profile among Democrats and contributing to his fundraising surge and market presence as a 2028 contender.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads Democrats’ 2028 pack in new poll, topping Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
A new poll showed AOC leading the 2028 Democratic primary field with 26%, doubling Kamala Harris's support. This poll temporarily boosted her market price despite earlier declines.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads new 2028 Democratic primary poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
A May 2026 AtlasIntel poll showed Ocasio-Cortez leading potential Democratic contenders with 26% support, boosting her market odds and signaling increased viability as a nominee.
Lake Research Partners poll shows Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom neck-and-neck in 2028 Democratic primary
A May 2026 poll of 800 likely Democratic primary voters showed a competitive field with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom leading, supporting their strong market positions early in the analysis window.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges to lead in national Democratic poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
A May 12, 2026 AtlasIntel poll showed Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field with 26% support, surpassing Buttigieg and Newsom. This poll surge boosted her market price from 8% to around 9%, reflecting increased investor confidence in her candidacy.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear says he is comfortable being named a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Andy Beshear publicly expressed comfort with being considered a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting a modest rise in his market price from 2% to 3%.
Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledges weighing a 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%
Gavin Newsom stated he plans to decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, increasing his visibility as a potential candidate. This announcement coincided with polls showing strong Democratic support for his candidacy, which initially supported his market price around 24-25%.
Gov. Beshear comfortable being cited as potential 2028 candidate
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Gov. Beshear said he was comfortable being named a potential 2028 candidate, nudging his price from 2 % to 3 % as traders added a modest bump to his odds.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortable with 2028 presidential speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear acknowledged being comfortable with talk of a 2028 run, which supported a modest increase in his market price.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear hints at 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Governor Andy Beshear expressed comfort with being named a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting a modest market rise to 3%.
Gavin Newsom leads Democratic 2028 prediction markets and national polls
In May 2026, Gavin Newsom was the front-runner in Democratic 2028 prediction markets and ranked near the top in national primary polls, establishing him as the early favorite for the nomination.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear Expresses Comfort with 2028 Presidential Speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Governor Andy Beshear stated he is comfortable being discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though he will defer formal decisions until his term as DGA chair ends.
Andy Beshear comfortable being named potential 2028 Democratic candidate
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear expressed comfort with being discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling his interest and causing a slight market price increase.
Lake Research Partners poll shows Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom neck-and-neck in Democratic primary
A May 2026 poll by Lake Research Partners indicated a competitive Democratic primary with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom leading, supporting their strong market positions early in the analysis window.
Gov. Andy Beshear says he is ‘comfortable’ being named potential Democratic presidential candidate
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
In a May‑11 interview with MS NOW, Beshear said he was “comfortable” being mentioned as a possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, prompting traders to nudge his market price up from 2 % to 3 % over the next two weeks.
Jon Ossoff gains attention with viral anti-Trump speech and fundraising surge
Jon Ossoff plunges to 9%41%
Ossoff's viral speech criticizing Trump and strong fundraising efforts increased his profile and market odds, despite his public statements denying interest in running for president in 2028.
Lake Research Partners poll shows Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom neck-and-neck in 2028 Democratic primary
A May 2026 poll showed a competitive field with Kamala Harris leading Gavin Newsom narrowly in a ranked choice voting simulation, indicating a close race and supporting stable market prices for both candidates.
Gavin Newsom’s Prop 50 win strengthens his position as top 2028 Democratic contender
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
California voters approved Proposition 50, which could give Democrats additional congressional seats and boost Newsom’s profile as a leading 2028 presidential candidate, supporting his market rise.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 president, highlighting GOP unity
The endorsement of JD Vance by a major conservative group signaled early GOP consolidation, contrasting with the fragmented Democratic field and indirectly affecting Democratic nominee market dynamics, including Newsom's prospects.
Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation
Newsom's visit to New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, supporting his market price around 24%.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination
A late‑May poll of Democratic voters placed Newsom at 24% support, the highest among all potential nominees, reinforcing his market price increase to the endpoint of 24% and confirming his status as the market’s front‑runner.
Zohran Mamdani sworn in as New York City mayor, pledges democratic socialism
Mamdani's inauguration as NYC mayor and his commitment to democratic socialism, supported by figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, highlighted the progressive wing's influence, impacting Ocasio-Cortez's market perception.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez does not rule out 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 15%5%
In an interview, Ocasio-Cortez did not dismiss the possibility of running for president in 2028, keeping speculation alive and maintaining her market relevance.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses 2028 presidential ambitions in interview with David Axelrod
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Ocasio-Cortez spoke about her ambition to change the country and did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, maintaining interest in her candidacy despite declining market prices.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez addresses presidential run rumors, emphasizes ambition to change country
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%1%
AOC did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, stating her ambition is to change the country, which increased speculation and market interest in her candidacy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Teases National Ambitions in Axelrod Interview
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stated her ambition is to 'change this country' during an interview with David Axelrod, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expresses ambition to 'change this country' amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
In a May 2026 interview, AOC stated her ambition is to change the country, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run and stabilizing her market odds after a steep decline from earlier highs.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leaves door open for 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to deny speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, emphasizing her ambition to change the country rather than seek a title, which kept her in the market conversation despite lower odds.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declares ambition to change the country amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
In early May 2026, AOC publicly stated her ambition to change the country during a political forum, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run and stabilizing her market odds after earlier declines.
Gavin Newsom acknowledges evaluating a 2028 presidential campaign
Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%
Gavin Newsom publicly confirmed he is considering a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, maintaining his position as the market frontrunner despite some price decline from 25% to 20%.
Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledges considering 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom stated he is seriously contemplating a 2028 presidential campaign after the 2026 elections, which increased market confidence in his candidacy and raised his price from 18% to 25%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emphasizes ambition beyond presidency amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
At a political forum, Ocasio-Cortez stated her ambition is to change the country, signaling her potential 2028 presidential run while maintaining focus on broader goals.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declines to rule out 2028 presidential run, emphasizing ambition to change the country
Ocasio-Cortez stated her ambition is to change the country and did not dismiss the possibility of a 2028 presidential run, maintaining speculation and market interest in her candidacy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez addresses 2028 presidential run rumors, says ambition is to 'change this country'
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%3%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez neither confirmed nor denied a 2028 presidential run, emphasizing her broader ambition to effect change, which kept her market odds active and growing.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hints at future presidential ambitions without ruling out 2028 run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
On May 9, 2026, AOC stated her ambition is to change the country and did not rule out a presidential run, sparking early speculation and contributing to a slight increase in her market odds.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg responded to a question about running again in 2028 with 'You save me a seat. I'll be there,' signaling his intention to run and boosting his market position as a leading contender.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals possible 2028 presidential ambitions
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made moves toward a potential 2028 presidential run, traveling for campaigns and expanding her grassroots support, though she has not formally declared candidacy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Addresses 2028 Speculation in Chicago
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez left the door open for a potential 2028 presidential or Senate run during a political forum hosted by David Axelrod.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declines to rule out 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
In an interview with David Axelrod, AOC emphasized her ambition to change the country rather than seek office, fueling ongoing speculation about a potential 2028 run despite her public ambivalence, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez does not rule out 2028 presidential run
In a public talk, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to rule out a presidential run in 2028, emphasizing her broader ambition to change the country, which kept speculation about her candidacy alive.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Demurs on 2028 Run, Emphasizes Policy Ambitions
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
During an interview with David Axelrod, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez did not deny a potential 2028 run but stated her primary ambition is to change the country through policy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leaves door open for 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Ocasio-Cortez declined to rule out a presidential bid in 2028 during a public event, emphasizing her broader ambition to change the country, which increased speculation and modestly supported her market price around 8-9%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses 2028 presidential ambitions in interview
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
In an interview with David Axelrod, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, emphasizing her ambition to change the country, which maintained interest and support in the markets.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign with 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 re-election campaign, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, which increased his visibility and market odds.
Mark Kelly’s profile rises amid legal battles and fundraising surge
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
Senator Mark Kelly’s national profile rose due to his legal battles with the Trump administration and a significant fundraising surge, enhancing his stature as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Andy Beshear gains national attention as Democratic Governors Association chair
Beshear's election as chair of the Democratic Governors Association and national exposure raised his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining his market price around 3%.
Mark Kelly raises $13 million in first quarter of 2026, signaling 2028 ambitions
Senator Mark Kelly's strong fundraising haul positioned him as a key Democratic fundraiser and potential 2028 presidential contender, influencing his market price.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear expresses comfort with 2028 presidential speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear acknowledged being comfortable with his name floated as a 2028 contender, modestly increasing his market odds as he gains attention among Democrats.
Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clash over midterm congressional race
Josh Shapiro rises to 6%1%
Reports of intra-party conflict between Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez affected their market prices, reflecting ongoing controversies.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for 2026 reelection, boosting 2028 profile
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro's record fundraising for his gubernatorial reelection increased his visibility and market interest as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Kamala Harris surges in 2028 Democratic primary polls
Kamala Harris jumps to 10%5%
Harris's polling surge to 50% support among Democrats positioned her as the early front-runner for the 2028 nomination, boosting her market price significantly.
Andy Beshear signs emergency orders to freeze Kentucky gas tax amid affordability concerns
Beshear's actions to address economic issues in Kentucky reinforced his image as a pragmatic leader, supporting his consideration as a 2028 presidential contender.
Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race
Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%
Kamala Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race signaled her continued influence in California politics and strategic positioning ahead of 2028, affecting her market standing.
California launches free‑diaper program for newborns
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
The new social‑policy initiative showcased Newsom’s focus on family‑friendly measures, slightly raising his profile among progressive voters and nudging his market price upward.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questioning presidential suitability
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Berry's public condemnation of Newsom's veto on women's health legislation raised questions about his support among female voters, impacting his market price.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $15 million in 2025, fueling 2028 front-runner speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
AOC's strong fundraising haul and nationwide rallies in 2025 enhanced her profile as a leading progressive contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflected in market price increases.
Kamala Harris regains some market support amid speculation of 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris jumps to 11%7%
Harris's market price rose slightly due to renewed speculation about her potential 2028 presidential candidacy and public appearances.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questions presidential suitability
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Newsom for vetoing menopause-related legislation, framing it as devaluing women and questioning his presidential prospects, impacting his public image.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for Pennsylvania governor reelection
Shapiro's record fundraising for his reelection bid elevated his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though his market price remained low due to prior controversies.
Liberal columnist urges Democrats not to support Kamala Harris for 2028
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
A USA Today columnist argued that Harris's chances of winning in 2028 are slim due to her past defeat and lack of recent accomplishments, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Rahm Emanuel’s endorsement of another candidate sidelines his own prospects
Emanuel publicly endorsed a fellow Democrat, effectively ending his own campaign and driving his market price down to the lowest level.
Liberal columnist argues Kamala Harris should not be 2028 Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
A USA Today opinion piece criticized Kamala Harris's viability for the 2028 nomination, citing her 2024 loss and lack of progress since, which contributed to a decline in her market price from 9% to 6%.
Gavin Newsom praises Canadian PM Mark Carney's stance against Trump at Davos
Newsom's endorsement of Carney's criticism of Trump reinforced his positioning as a progressive leader opposing Trump, maintaining his market support.
Kamala Harris' nomination chances briefly rebound amid speculation of 2028 bid
Kamala Harris rises to 10%4%
Speculation about Harris considering a 2028 presidential run led to a temporary increase in her market price, reflecting renewed interest in her candidacy despite earlier declines.
San Jose mayor Matt Mahan criticizes Newsom’s handling of homelessness and crime
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan, a critic of Newsom and candidate for California governor, emphasized his moderate stance and record on homelessness and crime, challenging Newsom’s legacy and potentially impacting his presidential bid.
Rahm Emanuel’s support erodes after policy disagreement with party leadership
Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%1%
Emanuel’s public clash with Democratic leadership over a tax proposal reduced his appeal, moving his market price from 2% to 3% as some voters shifted away.
Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers
Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%
Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.
Pete Buttigieg delivers Kenner Lecture at Lehigh University
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg's continued public engagements and thought leadership maintain his national profile as a potential 2028 candidate.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez adopts media avoidance amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 12%4%
Ocasio-Cortez limited national media interviews and avoided direct questions about a presidential run, signaling a cautious approach that coincided with a decline in her market odds.
Gavin Newsom's national profile grows with aggressive media strategy
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's adoption of a combative online presence and podcasting increased his visibility and appeal to a broader audience, supporting a price rebound from 24% to 26%.
Newsom’s national rise shapes public perception ahead of 2028 run
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom’s strategic communication style and outreach to conservative audiences enhanced his national profile, supporting his market position.
Jon Ossoff rises in prediction markets amid increased national profile
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%
Ossoff's rising prominence and sharper rhetoric against corruption boosted his market chances temporarily, though he publicly denied interest in running for president.
Josh Shapiro actively campaigns to flip Pennsylvania House seats
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro’s efforts to support Democratic candidates in key Pennsylvania districts aimed to strengthen his political influence and bolster his 2028 presidential prospects.
Ossoff: ‘Zero interest’ in running for president in 2028
Jon Ossoff dips to 6%3%
Sen. Ossoff told MS NOW that he has “zero interest” in a 2028 run, which sent his market price down from 8 % to 6 % as the field narrowed around other viable candidates.
Jon Ossoff declares zero interest in 2028 presidential run, focuses on midterms
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Ossoff publicly stated he has no interest in running for president in 2028, emphasizing the importance of winning the 2026 midterms. This announcement led to a significant drop in his market odds.
Narcan training highlights community engagement amid Newsom's rising profile
Community-focused events like Narcan training reflect Newsom's ongoing engagement with public health issues, supporting steady market confidence around 26%.
Jon Ossoff's 2028 nomination odds rise after critical rally in Georgia
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Following a rally where Ossoff criticized the Trump administration's corruption and economic issues, his market odds increased, reflecting growing support despite his public disinterest in running.
Jon Ossoff criticized for accepting billionaire donations despite rhetoric
Jon Ossoff dips to 5%1%
Reports revealed Ossoff's acceptance of significant donations from billionaires, contradicting his public stance against such influence, damaging his credibility and market position.
Sen. Jon Ossoff slams ‘Mar‑a‑Lago Mafia’ at Augusta rally
Jon Ossoff jumps to 8%6%
Ossoff delivered a rally in Augusta denouncing the “Mar‑a‑Lago Mafia,” causing his market price to rise from 2 % to 8 % as traders viewed his anti‑Trump stance as a boost to his national profile.
Jon Ossoff rallies in Augusta, sharply criticizes Trump administration corruption
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Ossoff's viral speech attacking Trump and highlighting corruption boosted his standing in prediction markets, causing a rise in his nomination odds.
Jon Ossoff rises in 2028 Democratic nomination markets after Georgia rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff's sharp criticism of Trump and focus on corruption during a rally in Augusta, Georgia, increased his visibility and boosted his chances in prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Jon Ossoff Surges in 2028 Prediction Markets After Augusta Rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a fiery speech in Augusta, Georgia, where he heavily criticized the Trump administration.
Jon Ossoff's 2028 nomination odds rise after critical rally in Georgia
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%
Senator Jon Ossoff's market odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination rose following a rally where he sharply criticized corruption and the Trump administration, increasing his visibility and support among traders.
Jon Ossoff rallies in Augusta, sharply criticizes Trump administration corruption
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's rally in Augusta focused on systemic corruption allegations against the Trump administration, leading to a surge in his standing in prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Jon Ossoff Rises in Prediction Markets After Scathing Anti-Corruption Speech in Augusta
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff saw his standing improve in 2028 Democratic presidential nomination prediction markets following a viral speech in Augusta targeting executive branch corruption.
Jon Ossoff delivers fiery speech amid presidential bid rumors
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff criticized President Trump and addressed speculation about a 2028 presidential run, raising his profile though he publicly denied interest in running.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028 during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton.
Poll shows Democratic primary voters favor less‑established candidates over Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
A mid‑year poll indicated voters were leaning toward newer faces, causing Newsom’s price to rise modestly to 28% while the odds for other front‑runners fell further.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan's entry added a moderate Democratic candidate critical of Newsom, influencing the dynamics of the governor's race and potentially Newsom's 2028 prospects, reflected in minor market fluctuations.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Governor Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related healthcare bill, accusing him of devaluing women. This criticism from a high-profile advocate brought negative attention to Newsom's record on women's health, potentially affecting his presidential prospects.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, touts California as national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
Newsom's final State of the State address emphasized California's progressive policies and opposition to federal overreach, boosting his national profile and slightly increasing his nomination market price.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign with 2028 presidential ambitions
Josh Shapiro rises to 6%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially began his 2026 re-election campaign, positioning himself as a strong contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, which influenced his market odds.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run: ‘You save me a seat’
Pete Buttigieg rises to 8%3%
At the National Action Network convention, Buttigieg answered Sharpton’s question with “You save me a seat. I’ll be there,” which was interpreted as a clear signal of a 2028 bid and nudged his price up from 5 % to 8 % over the next two weeks.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
At the National Action Network convention Buttigieg answered a direct question with the phrase “Save me a seat,” a cryptic hint that revived speculation and caused a brief uptick from 4 % to 5 % before the price fell back to 4 % by the end of the window.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 12%7%
Pete Buttigieg gave a clear signal of his intention to run for president in 2028 during a public appearance, which was followed by increased media attention and polling support in early primary states.
Kamala Harris confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
At the 2026 National Action Network Convention, Kamala Harris publicly stated she is considering a 2028 presidential campaign, maintaining her status as a top contender despite her 2024 loss.
California proposes K-12 education governance reform under Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Newsom proposed shifting more power to the governor and State Board of Education to streamline K-12 governance, signaling his focus on education reform as part of his leadership portfolio.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris jumps to 9%5%
Kamala Harris gave her clearest indication yet of considering a 2028 presidential run during a speech at the National Action Network conference, receiving strong audience support and increasing speculation about her candidacy.
Kamala Harris gains momentum amid California governor race and national positioning
Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%
Kamala Harris's market price rose from 5% to 8% in mid-April 2026, reflecting increased attention as a potential 2028 nominee, possibly boosted by Newsom's weakening position and her own national profile.
Pete Buttigieg fuels 2028 run speculation with remarks at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 16%4%
Buttigieg's remarks at the convention, including criticism of Trump and hints at running, reinforced his potential candidacy and maintained market interest despite earlier challenges.
Kamala Harris openly considers 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%
Kamala Harris made her most explicit public signal yet about considering a 2028 presidential run during the National Action Network convention, boosting her market position.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking public debate
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%1%
Trump's attacks on Newsom's dyslexia brought national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience, influencing public perception and market sentiment.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential campaign in public remarks
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Harris publicly acknowledged thinking about a 2028 run, expanding her book tour and visiting key primary states, which influenced market perceptions of her viability.
Kamala Harris gives clearest signal she is mounting a 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%
At the National Action Network convention, Harris openly acknowledged she was thinking about running for president in 2028, reinforcing her status as a leading candidate and impacting market confidence.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 8%31%
Harris's public confirmation of considering a 2028 run renewed speculation and modestly affected her market position as a potential nominee.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez downplays 2028 presidential ambitions
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%1%
AOC emphasized her focus on serving her district and expressed ambitions beyond holding office, which contributed to a decline in her market price from earlier highs.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Pete Buttigieg gave a clear signal of a 2028 presidential run during an April 2026 appearance at the National Action Network convention, responding affirmatively to a direct question about running. This boosted his market price slightly as speculation intensified.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in final year as California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, potentially weakening his presidential bid and causing a slight market decline.
Kamala Harris publicly confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%
At the 2026 National Action Network Convention, former Vice President Kamala Harris openly acknowledged she is considering a run for president in 2028, reinforcing her status as a leading contender and impacting market perceptions.
Kamala Harris signals she might run for president in 2028
Kamala Harris rises to 8%2%
Harris publicly indicated she is considering a 2028 presidential run, which briefly increased market interest in her candidacy despite mixed party enthusiasm.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum with viral anti-Trump speech
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's viral speech sharply criticizing Donald Trump increased his visibility and boosted his market odds as a potential 2028 Democratic nominee amid a fluid primary field.
Kamala Harris confirms she might run for president in 2028
Kamala Harris rises to 7%1%
Harris publicly stated she is considering a 2028 presidential run, which maintained her presence in the nomination conversation despite lower market odds compared to Newsom.
Kamala Harris signals she is considering 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave the clearest indication yet of a 2028 presidential bid during a speech at the National Action Network convention, reinforcing her status as a leading contender and boosting her market position.
Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential bid at National Action Network
Kamala Harris rises to 10%1%
Harris said 'I might, I might. I'm thinking about it,' in response to questions about running again, reinforcing her status as a top contender and supporting her market price around 10%.
Josh Shapiro criticizes Trump at National Action Network conference in New York
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro delivered a scathing critique of President Donald Trump at the National Action Network conference, emphasizing the need for an honorable president and highlighting rising societal issues.
Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential bid at National Action Network convention
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro hinted at a potential 2028 presidential run during a fireside chat with Rev. Al Sharpton, emphasizing his desire to be part of the party's future direction.
Senator Jon Ossoff Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run to Focus on Georgia Re-Election
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff tamped down presidential speculation by stating he has 'zero interest' in running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his upcoming Senate race.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Newsom's speech reaffirmed his leadership and national profile, supporting his market price stability and potential 2028 presidential bid.
Jon Ossoff's nomination chances improve with increased visibility and support
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%
Jon Ossoff's market price increased from 5% to 8% in early April 2026, indicating growing recognition and support within the Democratic Party as the 2028 nomination race develops.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg's public hint at a 2028 presidential run during a high-profile event sparked enthusiasm and speculation, briefly boosting his market price.
Josh Shapiro raises record $10 million in first quarter of 2026
Shapiro's campaign reported a record fundraising haul, strengthening his financial position and increasing his viability as a 2028 presidential contender.
Andy Beshear’s low‑key campaign fails to gain traction in national polls
Andy Beshear dips to 2%3%
Beshear’s lack of national visibility and poor poll numbers led to a continued decline in his market price, reflecting limited expectations for a 2028 bid.
Gavin Newsom's podcast 'This Is Gavin Newsom' gains popularity
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's podcast, featuring political discussions and notable guests, increased his national profile and engagement with voters, supporting a price rise to around 26%.
Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 Presidential Run at NAN Convention
Kamala Harris rises to 6%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she is strongly considering a 2028 presidential run during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, sparking fresh speculation and market movement.
Newsom proposes $200 million instant electric vehicle rebate plan
Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%
Newsom unveiled a plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching funds, aiming to boost the electric car market and counter federal incentive cuts, enhancing his policy profile.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal overreach and highlighted his progressive record, reinforcing his stature as a 2028 presidential contender and supporting a moderate rise in his market price.
Rahm Emanuel weighs 2028 presidential run after visits to New Hampshire and South Carolina
Rahm Emanuel rises to 2%1%
Emanuel’s multi-state tour of early primary states signaled serious consideration of a 2028 presidential bid, raising his profile and causing modest market interest despite being a long shot.
Newsom signs executive order on AI harm and government contract rules
Newsom's proactive AI policy enhanced his image as a forward-thinking leader, positively impacting his market position.
Kamala Harris participates in Southern Democratic events amid 2028 speculation
Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris toured Southern state Democratic events, maintaining political visibility and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run, though her market probability remained low around 5-9%.
Kamala Harris tours Southern states amid 2028 presidential speculation
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Kamala Harris toured key Southern states including South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina, engaging in fundraising and community events, which was widely interpreted as groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential campaign.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear attacks VP Vance, fuels 2028 speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
During a speech in South Carolina, Beshear criticized Vice President JD Vance and hinted at a 2028 bid, boosting his market price from 2 % to 3 % as the field narrowed.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Swalwell’s exit removed a major competitor, allowing remaining candidates to consolidate support; the market prices for other front‑runners stabilized, with Newsom’s price edging up slightly to 24% by mid‑May.
Rahm Emanuel proposes ban on federal employees betting on prediction markets
Emanuel's proposal to ban federal employees from betting on prediction markets drew attention to his political activity and potential 2028 ambitions, slightly influencing his market perception.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured a Democratic‑leaning map, improving the overall outlook for Democratic candidates in California and giving a modest lift to Newsom’s perceived electability.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.
Andy Beshear’s campaign stalls amid low voter awareness
Beshear’s low‑profile campaign failed to gain traction, keeping his market price flat at 3% after a brief rise earlier in the year.
Josh Shapiro declines to discuss 2028 presidential run on Bill Maher show
Shapiro firmly refused to engage in speculation about a 2028 presidential bid during a TV interview, reflecting his cautious approach and contributing to his low market price around 5%.
Pete Buttigieg rules out 2026 Senate and governor races, fueling 2028 speculation
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 5%45%
Pete Buttigieg announced he would not run for Michigan's Senate or governor seats in 2026, signaling his focus on a potential 2028 presidential campaign, which influenced his market position.
Gavin Newsom sparks controversy hosting conservative figures on podcast
Gavin Newsom dips to 27%3%
Newsom's podcast featuring right-wing guests and his comments on transgender athletes caused backlash within the Democratic Party, potentially damaging his presidential prospects and causing market volatility.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom as favorite Democratic 2028 presidential nominee
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
A poll revealed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field for 2028 nomination, significantly ahead of Kamala Harris and others, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting his market price.
UC Berkeley poll shows Gavin Newsom leading over Kamala Harris in 2028 primary
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
A March 2026 UC Berkeley poll showed Gavin Newsom with 28% support among California Democratic primary voters, double that of Kamala Harris at 14%, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination race.
Georgia sets March 10 election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
The special election in Georgia following Greene's resignation may have influenced local political dynamics, indirectly affecting Jon Ossoff's market price as a prominent Georgia Democrat.
Georgia sets special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
The special election to replace Greene could impact the political landscape and influence Democratic prospects, indirectly affecting candidates like Jon Ossoff in the 2028 nomination market.
Pete Buttigieg’s campaign announces withdrawal from 2028 race
Pete Buttigieg drops to 4%8%
Buttigieg’s exit removed him from contention, causing his market price to collapse to near‑zero as investors reallocated support to remaining candidates.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 reelection campaign amid 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 reelection campaign, a move seen as a stepping stone for a potential 2028 presidential run, which helped stabilize and slightly increase his market odds.
Gavin Newsom's New Hampshire book tour stop sparks 2028 presidential speculation
Newsom's presentation of his new book in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, increased buzz about his potential 2028 presidential run and reinforced his stature as a leading contender.
Mark Kelly signals serious consideration of 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
Kelly stated he has thought about running for president but has not made a decision, raising his profile and market interest amid his fundraising success and opposition to Trump.
James Talarico announces 2026 Texas Senate candidacy
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico announced his candidacy for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, giving the low‑probability candidate a brief media bump that raised his price from 1 % to 2 %.
Gavin Newsom book tour stop in New Hampshire sparks 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's visit to New Hampshire for his book tour, a key early primary state, generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run, supporting his market position.
Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom's stop in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, supporting his market position around 25%.
James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
Talarico's primary victory in Texas elevated his profile as a rising Democratic star and potential 2028 contender, though his market price remains low due to the uphill general election battle.
Josh Shapiro's rising profile linked to Philadelphia's 2028 DNC bid
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Philadelphia's bid to host the 2028 Democratic National Convention fueled speculation about Shapiro accepting the nomination in his home state, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market odds.
James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary, boosting 2028 profile
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, raising his national profile and market odds slightly as a potential 2028 presidential contender due to his fundraising and campaign momentum.
Pete Buttigieg delivers 2026 Kenner Lecture at Lehigh University
Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%
Buttigieg's public speaking engagements, such as the Kenner Lecture, helped maintain his visibility and influence within Democratic circles ahead of 2028.
Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%4%
The high‑visibility address reinforced Newsom’s national profile, stabilizing his price at 25% after a brief dip.
James Talarico wins Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico's primary victory in Texas increased his visibility and viability as a Democratic candidate, reflected in a rise in his market price.
Pete Buttigieg delivers Kenner Lecture on cultural understanding at Lehigh University
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg gave a prominent lecture on leadership and cultural understanding, maintaining his public profile and supporting his market position.
Jon Ossoff’s campaign receives major fundraising boost
A sizable infusion of cash into Ossoff’s campaign shifted attention away from Newsom, contributing to a modest price decline.
Newsom touts reduction in EBT theft amid Trump administration scrutiny
Gavin Newsom dips to 27%1%
Newsom highlighted California’s success in reducing public benefit theft, countering Trump administration criticisms and reinforcing his governance credentials.
Actors Awards 2026 nominees announced, highlighting films like 'One Battle After Another'
The announcement of major award nominees can influence cultural narratives and candidate endorsements, indirectly affecting market sentiment for candidates like Rahm Emanuel and Pete Buttigieg who have political ties to entertainment sectors.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces criticism over immigration and healthcare stances
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%3%
Ocasio-Cortez's vocal criticism of immigration enforcement and healthcare cuts drew mixed reactions, leading to a decline in her nomination market price as some Democrats questioned her electability.
Newsom’s final State of the State speech defends record and hints at 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
In his last State of the State address, Newsom defended his record and explicitly mentioned eyeing a 2028 presidential bid, which helped stabilize his price at 24% after a brief dip.
Jon Ossoff's nomination odds rise after viral anti-Trump speech
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Senator Jon Ossoff's sharp criticism of Donald Trump at a rally went viral, boosting his visibility and increasing his market odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination despite his public denial of interest in running.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign with 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro's re-election bid in Pennsylvania is seen as a strategic move to build a winning narrative and national profile for a potential 2028 presidential run.
Rahm Emanuel tours early primary states signaling 2028 presidential bid
Rahm Emanuel rises to 2%1%
Rahm Emanuel's visits to New Hampshire and South Carolina, including public appearances and policy speeches, indicated serious consideration of a 2028 presidential run, causing modest market interest.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%3%
Mahan's entry into the governor's race as a Newsom critic highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, contributing to market volatility for Newsom's nomination chances.
Emerson poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic primary field
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
An Emerson College poll placed Newsom at 20% support among Democratic likely primary voters, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and influencing market prices.
Gavin Newsom says he is 'punching a bully back' in social media attacks on Trump
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%5%
Newsom's combative social media strategy against Donald Trump raised his national profile and energized Democratic voters, contributing to a modest increase in his market odds and reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic nomination market at 27.2%
Market data shows Gavin Newsom as the leading candidate with a 27.2% implied probability, reflecting collective trader belief in his chances based on his political activities and public profile.
Trump jokes Newsom “just dropped out” of 2028 race on Truth Social
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Trump’s Truth‑Social post proclaiming that Newsom had “dropped out” of the race sparked a brief sell‑off on Newsom’s contract, pulling the price from 27 % on 23 Feb to 24 % on 24 Feb, the lowest level in the window.
Gavin Newsom returns to South Carolina for early primary campaigning
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%1%
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, an early primary state, demonstrated his active campaign efforts and boosted his visibility among Democratic voters, supporting his frontrunner status.
Gavin Newsom visits South Carolina to engage early primary voters
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, a key early voting state, was part of his strategy to build support for a potential 2028 presidential run, positively impacting his market price.
Donald Trump mocks Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential prospects
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%3%
Trump's public mockery of Newsom's potential candidacy created media buzz and may have reinforced Newsom's image as a strong opponent, causing minor price fluctuations around 32-35%.
Andy Beshear acknowledges considering 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear plunges to 2%48%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term, highlighting his high approval ratings and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a red state, which influenced market odds.
Andy Beshear considers 2028 presidential run after re-election
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear, with high approval ratings and leadership roles, publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term as Kentucky governor, supporting a modest rise in his market odds.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear considers 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 4%1%
Beshear publicly addressed speculation about a possible 2028 presidential bid, which increased his visibility and modestly affected his market odds.
Andy Beshear openly considers 2028 presidential run in CNN interview
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his current term, boosting his profile and market price from 2% to 3%.
Andy Beshear publicly considers 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his current term, which contributed to a rise in his market price from 2% to 3%.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals consideration of 2028 presidential run
Beshear publicly indicated he is considering a presidential bid after finishing his governorship, raising his market price and national profile.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez struggles in Taiwan defense interview, drawing criticism
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 14%2%
AOC's public stumble on defending Taiwan in an interview led to criticism and negative media attention, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Beshear says he’s considering presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Beshear told CNN’s Situation Room that he’s “considering” a 2028 presidential bid after his re‑election, lifting his price from 2 % to 3 % over the following month.
Andy Beshear says he is considering 2028 presidential run
Beshear publicly addressed speculation about a presidential run, stating he will consider it after finishing his current job, which caused a modest market interest increase.
Gavin Newsom opposes California billionaire tax proposal, sparking intra-party debate
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%5%
Newsom publicly opposed a proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California, positioning himself against progressive elements like Bernie Sanders and affecting his market perception.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly considers 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear plunges to 3%47%
Beshear's public remarks about considering a presidential run raised his profile and market odds, reflecting growing interest in his candidacy.
Pete Buttigieg leads 2028 Democratic field in New Hampshire poll
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 20%8%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading the 2028 Democratic presidential field, boosting his profile and market price. This poll reflected growing enthusiasm for Buttigieg as a potential candidate.
Pete Buttigieg leads potential 2028 Democratic candidates in New Hampshire poll
Pete Buttigieg rises to 7%2%
A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll showed Pete Buttigieg as the most exciting potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate among Massachusetts voters, increasing his visibility and market support.
Mark Kelly seriously considers 2028 presidential run amid Trump feud
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Kelly’s fundraising surge and high-profile opposition to Trump, including a Pentagon investigation, raised his national profile and led to speculation about a 2028 bid.
Andy Beshear says he is considering 2028 presidential run
Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term as governor, emphasizing the need to heal the country and unite voters, which contributed to early market interest.
Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic field in New Hampshire poll
Pete Buttigieg jumps to 20%8%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading the 2028 Democratic field, boosting his profile and market price as a strong early contender in key primary states.
Andy Beshear publicly considers 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear plunges to 3%47%
In February 2026, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential run, raising his profile and contributing to early market interest despite low polling.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear says he’s comfortable being named a 2028 contender
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear told reporters on a national news program that he was "comfortable" being named a potential 2028 contender, keeping his odds low but steady at around 3 % throughout the window.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals consideration of 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential run after his term ends, increasing his national profile and market interest.
Senator Mark Kelly announces he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Senator Mark Kelly publicly stated he will seriously consider running for president in 2028 amid his legal battles with the Trump administration, raising his profile and causing a slight uptick in his market odds.
Mark Kelly's fundraising surges after feud with Trump administration
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
Following public clashes with Trump and his allies, Kelly's campaign funds skyrocketed, enhancing his national profile and 2028 presidential viability.
Mark Kelly fundraising surges amid feud with Trump administration
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Senator Mark Kelly's campaign funds surged dramatically after becoming a target of the Trump administration, raising over $12.5 million in late 2025 and early 2026, boosting his market probability slightly from 1% to 3%.
Mark Kelly eyes 2028 presidential run after Trump clash and fundraising surge
Mark Kelly plunges to 2%48%
Senator Mark Kelly's fundraising exploded following President Trump's call for his execution, elevating his national profile and prompting him to seriously consider a 2028 presidential bid.
Mark Kelly says he is seriously considering 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly publicly stated in a BBC interview that he is seriously weighing a 2028 presidential bid, raising his profile and market probability despite no formal announcement yet.
Senator Mark Kelly says he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly publicly stated he is seriously considering a run for president in 2028, highlighting his military and astronaut background, which raised his profile as a potential candidate in the market.
Andy Beshear announces book amid speculation over 2028 presidential run
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear announced a book release and increased national visibility, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid and modestly affecting his market position.
Mark Kelly announces he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Mark Kelly publicly stated he would seriously consider running for president in 2028, reflecting his rising stature and fundraising success following confrontations with Trump.
Mark Kelly fundraising surges after Trump calls for his execution
Mark Kelly plunges to 2%48%
Following President Trump’s attacks, Kelly’s campaign fundraising exploded, raising over $22 million in 2025, boosting his profile as a serious 2028 presidential contender.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear announces upcoming book amid presidential speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear announced a book release for September 2026, increasing his national profile and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run, impacting his market price.
Mark Kelly fundraising surge and legal battle with Trump administration elevate 2028 prospects
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Senator Mark Kelly's legal fight against the Trump administration and a fundraising boom raised his national profile and positioned him as a serious contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Senator Mark Kelly announces serious consideration of 2028 presidential run amid Trump clash
Mark Kelly plunges to 3%47%
In February 2026, Mark Kelly publicly stated he would seriously consider running for president in 2028 following a high-profile clash with the Trump administration and strong fundraising. This elevated his market price as he emerged as a leading contender.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral anti-Trump speech sparking 2028 front-runner predictions
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%
Ossoff's fiery speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church went viral, leading to increased speculation about his 2028 prospects and a brief price spike from 4% to 6%.
Senator Mark Kelly announces he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 2%1%
Mark Kelly publicly confirmed he is seriously considering a run for president in 2028 amid his legal battles with the Trump administration, raising his profile as a potential candidate.
California proposal for billionaire tax divides Democrats, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
A proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California created a rift within the Democratic Party, with progressive figures like Bernie Sanders supporting it and Newsom opposing. This division highlighted ideological splits that may have influenced market perceptions of Newsom's electability.
Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%5%
Pelosi's endorsement as a prominent Democratic figure boosted Newsom's credibility and market probability, contributing to a rise from 27% to 32%.
Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%6%
Sanders supported a tax on billionaires in California, which Newsom opposed, creating intra-party tension and possibly affecting Newsom’s market position negatively.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
Harris’s decision to focus on other political goals removed a potential rival for Newsom, slightly improving his odds.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, affecting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces Fair Wages for Home Care Workers Act
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 11%2%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sponsored progressive legislation in early 2026, maintaining her profile as a leading progressive voice and influencing her market odds.
Gavin Newsom Attends Munich Security Conference to Bolster National Profile
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%5%
Governor Gavin Newsom attended the Munich Security Conference, maintaining his position as the leading 2028 Democratic contender in prediction markets.
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Represent Anti-Trump Opposition at Munich Security Conference
Gavin Newsom dips to 28%4%
California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made high-profile appearances at the Munich Security Conference, asserting themselves as key leaders of the Democratic opposition.
Judge blocks Pentagon's punishment of Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
A federal judge blocked the Pentagon's attempt to punish Senator Mark Kelly, ruling in his favor on First Amendment grounds. This legal victory enhanced Kelly's reputation as a defender of constitutional rights and boosted his presidential prospects.
Gavin Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for final year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%8%
The disclosed deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, prompting a price correction from 35% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Elevates International Profile at Munich Security Conference
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's high-profile appearance at the Munich Security Conference sharpened speculation about her long-term political ambitions, causing her odds to rise on prediction markets.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 6%1%
Buttigieg's public statement "You save me a seat" at a major Democratic event fueled speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, impacting his market position.
Prediction markets show Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic nominee odds
Gavin Newsom jumps to 30%10%
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket showed Gavin Newsom leading the 2028 Democratic nominee odds with about 30%, reflecting his national profile and fundraising strength, influencing market prices upward.
Prediction markets see $45 million wagered on 2028 Democratic nominee, Newsom leads
Gavin Newsom jumps to 30%5%
Kalshi markets showed unprecedented liquidity with Newsom holding a dominant 30% probability, reflecting consolidation around his candidacy and institutional interest.
Gavin Newsom Dominates Early 2028 Prediction Markets with 30% Odds
As prediction market volume surged past $45 million, Gavin Newsom established a dominant lead over other potential 2028 Democratic contenders.
Pete Buttigieg’s poll numbers dip after debate performance
Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%
Buttigieg’s weak showing in a televised debate caused his poll share to slip, moving his market price from 5% to 4% the next day.
Kamala Harris Relaunches 'Kamala HQ' as Youth Organizing Platform Ahead of Midterms
Kamala Harris rises to 7%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris reactivated and rebranded her presidential campaign social media operation as 'Headquarters' to mobilize young progressive voters, fueling speculation about her 2028 plans.
Rahm Emanuel shapes 2028 Democratic debate with education-focused campaign
Emanuel toured key states emphasizing education reform, aiming to distinguish himself as a moderate with a combative temperament. His campaign activities and policy focus increased his visibility and market relevance.
Jon Ossoff’s Senate race draws criticism over staff hiring ethics
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
An ethics report implicating a top aide to Ossoff’s opponent raised concerns about campaign conduct, indirectly harming Ossoff’s perceived electability and lowering his market price.
Newsom’s budget shortfall leads to proposed cuts in progressive programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 29%5%
Further details on the deficit prompted speculation about cuts to popular policies, causing Newsom’s price to fall from 34% to 29% and reinforcing the decline of other candidates.
Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%
Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear's PAC raises $4.3 million in 2025
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear's fundraising success through his super PAC reflects growing national ambitions and increased market interest in his 2028 presidential prospects.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum with sharp criticism of Trump at Augusta rally
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Ossoff’s viral speech sharply criticizing Trump and his allies increased his visibility and market odds, moving his price from 4% to 8% as he was seen as a rising contender.
Kamala Harris' support declines amid shifting Democratic dynamics post-2024 election
Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%
Following the 2024 election defeat and internal party shifts, Harris' nomination chances declined significantly, reflecting market adjustments to her diminished standing within the Democratic Party.
Trevor Noah to host Grammy Awards for sixth and final time
While unrelated to the nomination, cultural events like the Grammys can influence public mood and political engagement, indirectly affecting candidate visibility and market prices.
California launches instant electric vehicle rebates to counter federal cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%3%
Newsom's plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching aimed to boost clean energy adoption and counteract Trump administration's dismantling of federal incentives, showcasing his policy leadership.
Georgia GOP criticizes Jon Ossoff over Laken Riley Act vote
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
Republican criticism of Ossoff's inconsistent stance on the Laken Riley Act, a law targeting violent crimes by illegal immigrants, damaged his political image and contributed to his market price decline.
Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking controversy
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
President Trump publicly mocked Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political tensions and drawing national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience.
Newsom criticizes Trump, highlights California as national model in State of the State speech
Newsom's strong stance against Trump and promotion of California's policies boosted his national profile and presidential prospects.
Pete Buttigieg challenges Fox News host's claims on immigration enforcement
Pete Buttigieg rises to 15%3%
Pete Buttigieg publicly disputed a Fox News host's claims about immigration enforcement, positioning himself as a moderate voice on immigration and impacting his market perception.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges in memoir that Kamala Harris' team asked if he was an Israeli agent
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about vetting questions from Harris' team may have damaged his and Harris' market prices due to perceived controversy and intra-party tensions.
Kamala Harris rebrands and relaunches campaign social media accounts
Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%
Kamala Harris relaunched and rebranded her campaign social media accounts, signaling renewed efforts to maintain political relevance and possibly influence the 2028 Democratic nomination race. This move was noted in the market but had limited impact on her odds.
Josh Shapiro releases memoir revealing offensive vetting by Kamala Harris' team
Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%
Shapiro's memoir disclosed that during vetting for the 2024 vice presidential run, Harris' team asked if he was an Israeli agent, which he found offensive. This revelation highlighted intra-party tensions and contributed to a decline in his market price.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about Israeli ties
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Shapiro claimed Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he was an Israeli agent, stirring controversy and scrutiny that likely contributed to his market price decline.
Pete Buttigieg hosts town halls to advance pro-democracy movement
Pete Buttigieg drops to 5%7%
Pete Buttigieg engaged in nationwide town halls and rallies to promote pro-democracy efforts, enhancing his national profile and contributing to his market presence as a 2028 contender.
Trump administration freezes child care funds to Minnesota amid fraud allegations
Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%
The freeze of federal funds in Minnesota, a state with Democratic leadership including Tim Walz, may have affected perceptions of Democratic governance and indirectly influenced related candidates' market prices.
Rahm Emanuel signals 2028 presidential ambitions with increased public appearances and policy proposals
Rahm Emanuel plunges to 2%48%
Emanuel's multi-state tours, opinion pieces, and policy initiatives indicate his serious consideration of a 2028 presidential bid, impacting his market odds.
Analysis highlights Gavin Newsom’s strengths and vulnerabilities as 2028 front-runner
Gavin Newsom dips to 37%1%
An Atlantic article analyzed Newsom’s record, noting his early lead but also potential liabilities that could affect his nomination chances, reflecting nuanced market sentiment.
Democratic National Committee plans major voter registration push targeting young and diverse voters
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
The DNC's initiative to boost voter registration among key demographics may have improved prospects for candidates like Newsom, contributing to his price stability and gains.
Gavin Newsom Blocked from Speaking at Davos Forum by Trump Administration
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Trump administration blocked him from speaking at the Davos forum, sparking public feuds that raised his national profile.
Gavin Newsom criticizes European leaders and Trump diplomacy at Davos forum
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Newsom's blunt remarks at the World Economic Forum criticizing global leaders' handling of Trump and calling for stronger American leadership increased his national visibility and bolstered his presidential prospects.
Rahm Emanuel signals 2028 presidential bid with visits to New Hampshire and South Carolina
Emanuel's multi-state tour to early primary states increased speculation about his candidacy, supporting a stable market price around 2%.
Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run rumors, cites public dissatisfaction
Jon Stewart plunges to 2%48%
Stewart responded to fan questions about a presidential run, attributing the speculation to public desperation and dissatisfaction with the status quo. While reluctant, his comments kept his name in the conversation, affecting his market price.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom’s office announced a significant budget shortfall, limiting new program funding and highlighting fiscal challenges during his last year, which may have tempered market enthusiasm.
DNC Rules Committee advances 12 states for early 2028 primary calendar
The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee began setting the 2028 presidential primary calendar, advancing 12 states for early primary consideration, signaling structural changes that could impact candidate strategies and market perceptions.
Jon Stewart addresses speculation about 2028 presidential run
Jon Stewart rises to 3%2%
Jon Stewart publicly discussed the possibility of running, reflecting growing public interest and contributing to his market presence despite low odds.
Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run speculation, declines to run
Jon Stewart plunges to 1%49%
Jon Stewart publicly acknowledged the calls for him to run for president reflect public dissatisfaction but firmly ruled out a presidential bid, leading to a collapse in his market probability.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during vetting
Kamala Harris dips to 4%1%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about being questioned on alleged Israeli agent ties by Harris' vetting team stirred controversy, impacting perceptions of both Shapiro and Harris' presidential prospects, reflected in their market prices.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.
Jon Stewart Shuts Down Speculation of a 2028 Presidential Run
Comedian Jon Stewart addressed persistent calls for him to run for office, shutting down the fantasy of a 2028 presidential bid and emphasizing his role as a comedian.
Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom positioned California as a national model opposing Trump policies, enhancing his national stature and presidential prospects.
Andy Beshear builds buzz among Democrats for possible 2028 presidential run
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gained attention as a potential 2028 candidate, increasing his profile and market probability as Democrats seek new leadership options.
UN rights office cites widespread repression in Uganda before presidential election
While unrelated directly to the U.S. Democratic nomination, international political instability may have influenced broader political discourse and candidate positioning, indirectly affecting market sentiment.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%
Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political feud
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
President Trump publicly belittled Newsom's dyslexia, calling him 'stupid' and unfit for presidency, escalating their political rivalry. This attack drew sympathy and support for Newsom, reinforcing his narrative of overcoming adversity and potentially aiding his presidential image.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State address, touts California as national model
Newsom's speech highlighted his achievements and positioned California as a blueprint for the nation, reinforcing his presidential prospects and stabilizing his market price.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
The court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place was seen as a boost to the party’s prospects in California, modestly raising Newsom’s price from 34% to 35% as it suggested a favorable electoral environment.
Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.
Pete Buttigieg declines to commit to 2028 presidential run during Detroit Auto Show
Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stated he does not know if he will run for president in 2028, reflecting uncertainty and causing modest market adjustments downward for his candidacy.
Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing national profile
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioned him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, boosting his market price as voters and donors took note of his national ambitions.
Kamala Harris buys $8 million Malibu estate
Kamala Harris and her husband purchased a high-profile $8.15 million home in Malibu, signaling personal and political stability which may influence perceptions of her viability as a 2028 candidate, though this had limited direct market impact.
Kamala Harris acquires $8 million Malibu estate amid 2028 speculation
Harris's high-profile real estate purchase kept her in the public eye, supporting her market presence despite low odds.
Josh Shapiro’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Shapiro’s campaign reported a significant drop in fundraising, leading to a modest decline in his market price from 4% to 4% (stable) but reinforcing the downward trend from earlier months.
Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State address, touts California as national model
In his final State of the State speech, Newsom highlighted California's policies and positioned the state as a model against federal chaos, reinforcing his leadership image ahead of a potential presidential run.
Rahm Emanuel tests 2028 presidential run with policy proposals and state visits
Rahm Emanuel rises to 2%1%
Emanuel's multi-state tour and policy rollouts signaled serious consideration of a 2028 run, though his low poll numbers limited market impact.
Pete Buttigieg visits Pittsburgh to highlight infrastructure progress
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
Pete Buttigieg's visit to Pittsburgh to showcase infrastructure improvements under the Biden administration reinforced his public profile and leadership credentials, supporting his presidential prospects.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 re-election bid, fueling 2028 presidential speculation
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro launched his re-election campaign, which was widely viewed as a stepping stone for a potential 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility and market odds.
Governor Josh Shapiro Kicks Off 2026 Re-election Campaign in Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%3%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 gubernatorial re-election campaign, a move widely viewed as a crucial stepping stone and test of his viability for a 2028 presidential run.
Josh Shapiro announces re-election bid with 2028 presidential ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 4%46%
Shapiro launched his 2026 campaign in Pennsylvania, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, supported by strong fundraising and strategic campaigning in a key swing state.
Josh Shapiro officially launches 2026 reelection campaign amid 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Shapiro announced his bid for Pennsylvania governor re-election, emphasizing state issues but fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run. His strong fundraising and campaign launch increased his visibility in the 2028 market.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election campaign with 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro's official re-election bid in Pennsylvania was seen as a strategic move to bolster his national profile and position himself as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
Josh Shapiro launches re-election bid in Pennsylvania with 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 re-election campaign, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, which increased his profile and market odds.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 re-election bid as Pennsylvania governor
Governor Josh Shapiro announced his re-election campaign, raising significant funds and positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, maintaining a low but stable market probability around 5%.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro Launches Reelection Campaign with 2028 in View
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%2%
Governor Josh Shapiro officially kicked off his 2026 reelection campaign, a crucial stepping stone to build a national profile for a potential 2028 presidential run.
Josh Shapiro officially announces re-election bid with 2028 presidential ambitions in view
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%3%
Josh Shapiro launched his re-election campaign for Pennsylvania governor in January 2026, positioning it as a potential springboard for a 2028 presidential run. This strategic move was reflected in a slight market price increase as he sought to build momentum.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election bid
Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 re-election campaign as Pennsylvania governor, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement helped maintain his visibility and market support.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro announces 2026 re-election bid amid 2028 presidential speculation
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro's re-election campaign launch signaled his intent to build a platform for a potential 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price upward.
Rep. Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Swalwell abruptly withdrew from the California governor race following sexual assault allegations, causing a collapse in his market price and reshaping the Democratic field for 2028.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign with 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially announced his 2026 re-election campaign, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, which raised his profile and market interest.
Josh Shapiro launches Pennsylvania governor re-election bid with 2028 presidential run in view
Josh Shapiro rises to 6%1%
Josh Shapiro officially announced his re-election campaign for Pennsylvania governor, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, which increased his visibility and market interest despite a modest price.
Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power to governor and Board of Education
Newsom's education reform proposal increased his profile as a policy innovator, positively influencing his market standing.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 gubernatorial re-election bid amid 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 36%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially announced his 2026 re-election campaign, which was widely seen as a stepping stone for a potential 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility and fundraising capabilities.
Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power
Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%
Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Kamala Harris hints at possible presidential comeback amid evolving political landscape
Vice President Kamala Harris sparked speculation about a potential presidential run, signaling openness to future candidacy and maintaining relevance in the 2028 race.
Mark Kelly gains national profile amid clash with Trump administration
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly's opposition to the Trump administration, including a legal battle over military orders, raised his national profile and fundraising, positioning him as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Jon Ossoff begins 2026 Senate reelection campaign with $25 million cash on hand
Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%12%
Ossoff's strong fundraising position for his 2026 Senate reelection campaign indicated his focus on retaining his seat rather than pursuing a presidential bid, impacting his market price downward.
Newsom delivers first in‑person State of the State in years, touts climate and homelessness agenda
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
The in‑person address generated media attention and reinforced Newsom’s leadership image, prompting a short‑term price rise for his nomination odds.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issues censure against Senator Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly dips to 2%2%
Hegseth's formal censure against Senator Mark Kelly over a video urging military personnel not to follow illegal orders sparked controversy and affected Kelly's market price negatively.
Pentagon announces administrative measures against Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly plunges to 3%47%
The Pentagon's January 2026 announcement to reduce Mark Kelly's military retirement pay following his participation in a video urging troops to refuse illegal orders raised his national profile and presidential prospects.
Newsom delivers State of the State, touts education reforms
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom emphasized education and climate initiatives, briefly boosting his market price as the speech reinforced his policy credentials ahead of a potential presidential run.
Newsom signs executive order on AI procurement and risk assessment
Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%
The order positioned Newsom as a tech‑policy leader, appealing to moderate and tech‑savvy voters and lifting his market price modestly.
Jon Ossoff starts 2026 with $25 million war chest for reelection
Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%
Ossoff entered 2026 with a substantial campaign fund, reinforcing his position in a competitive Senate race and boosting his 2028 presidential prospects.
Jon Ossoff enters 2026 Senate race with $25 million cash on hand
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff reported a strong fundraising position with $25 million cash on hand for his 2026 re-election campaign, signaling strong support despite a decline in market probability from 50% to 4% in August 2025, later recovering to 15%.
Ethics watchdog questions intern hire by chief of staff to Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Ethics concerns around Mike Collins, a Republican opponent of Jon Ossoff, may have indirectly affected Ossoff's market price by influencing perceptions of his electoral competition.
Trump revokes Secret Service protection for Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
President Trump revoked Secret Service protection for former Vice President Kamala Harris, signaling political hostility and possibly affecting her perceived viability as a 2028 nominee, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Streamers Predict Newsom Will Beat JD Vance in 2028
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
A viral streamer claimed Vance is 'subhuman' and Newsom will win, boosting Newsom's visibility and market interest.
Influencer claims Gavin Newsom will beat J.D. Vance in 2028 presidential election
A popular streamer argued that Newsom's physical presence and appeal would help him defeat J.D. Vance in 2028, reflecting growing public and media speculation about Newsom's viability as a presidential candidate.
Jennifer Siebel Newsom shares family Christmas card amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
The public sharing of family moments by Newsom's wife helped humanize the candidate and maintain positive public sentiment, supporting stable market prices around 36-38%.
CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
A CNN poll released on 21 Dec 2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field at only 6 % while Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received 1‑3 % support. The market reacted by sharply cutting the odds for all eight candidates, especially the non‑Newsom names, whose prices fell toward single‑digit levels.
CNN poll gives Harris 3% and Ossoff 1% support in 2028 Democratic race
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
The same poll also placed Kamala Harris at 3 % and Jon Ossoff at 1 %, prompting the market to drive their prices down to the low‑single‑digit range.
CNN poll puts Shapiro, Buttigieg, Beshear, Kelly each at 1‑2 % support
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received roughly 1‑2 % in the same poll, causing their market prices to collapse to the low‑single‑digit range.
CNN poll shows Ossoff trailing at 1 % in Democratic field
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Jon Ossoff’s sub‑2 % showing in the poll led the market to push his price from 50 % down to 6 % over the following weeks.
Jon Ossoff urges Jewish resilience after antisemitic attacks
Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%
Senator Ossoff spoke at his childhood synagogue urging Jewish communities to remain resilient amid rising antisemitic violence, reinforcing his public profile and community leadership, slightly stabilizing his market price.
Polls show Gavin Newsom as early frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Multiple polls in late 2025 showed Newsom leading the Democratic field with significant margins over rivals, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing market prices to reflect increased confidence in his nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic nomination in multiple polls
Polls in late 2025 showed Newsom leading the field with significant margins over Kamala Harris and others, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price around 25-35%.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
A late-December poll placed Newsom at 24% support, reinforcing his market price increase and confirming his status as the market’s front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accused of misusing campaign funds for therapy
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 14%2%
A formal complaint alleged AOC misused nearly $19,000 in campaign funds for personal psychiatric therapy, leading to negative media coverage and a decline in her market price.
Gavin Newsom emerges as early frontrunner in 2028 Democratic nomination market
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
By late 2025, Gavin Newsom was widely recognized as the early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflected in multiple polls and prediction markets showing him leading the field with around 25-27% probability.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leading Democratic field with 35% support
Gavin Newsom jumps to 35%7%
Atlas Intel poll showed Newsom with a commanding 35% support, well ahead of rivals, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting a market price increase.
Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff announced a robust war chest of over $25 million as he prepared for a tough 2026 reelection in Georgia. This fundraising milestone was significant but also indicated his focus on Senate reelection rather than a presidential bid, leading to a sharp market price decline.
Jon Ossoff addresses Jewish community amid global antisemitic attacks
Ossoff's speech at his childhood synagogue during Hanukkah, emphasizing Jewish resilience after a deadly attack, highlighted his public profile and connection to his heritage, impacting his political standing.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchup poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
A poll showing AOC leading the likely Republican nominee boosted her market price to around 9%.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for his final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The revelation of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall limited Newsom’s ability to fund new initiatives, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential ambitions and contributing to a modest price dip.
Kamala Harris leads new polls as potential 2028 Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris surges to 31%25%
Polls released in December 2025 showed Kamala Harris leading or closely trailing other Democratic contenders, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. This polling boost temporarily increased her market price despite earlier campaign challenges.
Kamala Harris prepares for 2028 presidential bid with expanded public schedule
Former Vice President Kamala Harris increased her political visibility and private outreach, including a book tour and appearances in key states, signaling preparation for a 2028 presidential run and boosting her market position.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run amid increased visibility
Kamala Harris dips to 9%2%
Despite her 2024 loss, Harris increased political activity and private outreach, fueling speculation about a 2028 bid, though her market odds remain low.
California Supreme Court allows new congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
The Supreme Court upheld California's congressional map designed to flip Republican seats, a political win celebrated by Newsom, reinforcing his influence and potential presidential viability.
Newsom touts gains against EBT theft amid Trump‑led benefits fraud attacks
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
By highlighting a sharp drop in EBT theft, Newsom positioned himself as a defender of vulnerable Californians against federal attacks, sustaining his market momentum at 37%.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential campaign
Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run during a book tour and public appearances, fueling speculation and modest market gains.
Kamala Harris expands book tour, fueling 2028 campaign speculation
Kamala Harris rises to 6%2%
Harris expanded her book tour promoting her 2024 campaign memoir, visiting key primary states and cities with large Black voter populations, which was seen as laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential bid, supporting a modest price increase.
Axios: Former VP Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
Axios reported that Harris was “stepping toward” a 2028 run, prompting a sharp decline in her market price from 39 % to 9 % as traders reassessed her odds amid speculation about a comeback after her 2024 loss.
Kamala Harris Signals Early Steps Toward 2028 Presidential Comeback
Reports detailed that former Vice President Kamala Harris was stepping toward another presidential run in 2028, increasing her private outreach and promoting her memoir.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run amid increased political visibility
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Harris increased her political activity and visibility, including a book tour and outreach to key Democratic constituencies, signaling a potential 2028 presidential bid and stabilizing her market position.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, opposing Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Sanders’ public support for a billionaire tax opposed by Newsom highlighted intra‑party divisions, slightly dampening Newsom’s momentum and contributing to a modest price dip from 38% to 35% later in December.
Gavin Newsom emerges as clear Democratic frontrunner for 2028 nomination
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Polymarket data and media reports highlighted Newsom as the leading candidate, with commentators noting his national profile and confrontational style against Trump, which increased his market price.
CNN Poll Shows Newsom and Vance as Early 2028 Frontrunners
CNN poll found Newsom leading Democrats at 6% support, reinforcing his position as a potential nominee.
Kamala Harris announces expanded book tour hinting at 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
In December 2025, Kamala Harris expanded her book tour promoting '107 Days,' signaling continued political activity and hinting at a possible 2028 presidential campaign, which influenced market perceptions.
Opinion piece highlights Gavin Newsom trending towards 2028 presidential election
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
An influential opinion article praised Newsom's social media strategy and leadership qualities, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting a sustained market price around 35-38%.
Gavin Newsom is trending towards the 2028 Presidential Election
Newsom’s strong social media presence and public confrontations with Trump increased his visibility and appeal among Democratic voters, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination market.
Gavin Newsom gains attention for strong social media presence and Trump confrontation
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's active and strategic social media use, including a viral handshake moment with Donald Trump, increased his national profile and bolstered his perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, supporting his market price around 24-26%.
PCC Courier op‑ed declares Newsom the Democratic frontrunner for 2028
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
An op‑ed titled “Gavin Newsom is trending towards the 2028 Presidential Election” highlighted his social‑media dominance and led to a brief price surge from 35 % to 38 % in late December 2025.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom on California billionaire tax proposal
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over a proposed billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party divisions, dampening Newsom’s appeal among progressive voters and nudging his price lower.
Newsom touts reductions in EBT theft amid federal pressure
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
By highlighting a sharp drop in benefit fraud, Newsom portrayed effective governance, nudging his market price upward from 35% to 37% as the narrative reinforced his competence.
Kamala Harris expands book tour, hinting at 2028 presidential campaign
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris expanded her book tour into 2026, visiting key cities with significant Black voter populations, signaling her intent to remain politically active and possibly run in 2028, which influenced her market price.
Josh Shapiro outlines 2028 presidential strategy focusing on 2026 midterms
Shapiro emphasized winning Pennsylvania's 2026 midterms to build a strong case for a 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility and market support as a viable candidate.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says he wants to be part of the 2028 presidential conversation
Shapiro indicated he was “open to being part of the conversation” about a 2028 bid during a midterm‑focused interview, which gave his market price a modest rise from 5 % to 5‑6 % before sliding back as other candidates dominated the narrative.
Shapiro's strategy for 2028 White House run starts with 2026
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro said at a press conference that a huge win in the 2026 midterms would be his “springboard” to a 2028 presidential run. The commentary produced a modest uptick in his price from 4 % to 5 % as the market factored in a potential national profile.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re‑election bid, eyes 2028 White House
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro announced his 2026 re‑election campaign and linked it to a 2028 presidential ambition, lifting his price from 4 % to 5 % as the “electability insurance” narrative took hold.
Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential bid while focusing on 2026 midterms
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%3%
Shapiro acknowledged wanting to be part of the 2028 conversation but emphasized focusing on the 2026 midterms, causing a slight market price increase amid ongoing speculation.
Mark Kelly gains political spotlight amid 2028 White House talk
Mark Kelly plunges to 3%47%
Senator Mark Kelly's rising national profile and fundraising success amid clashes with the Trump administration increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff
Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%
Shapiro, while launching his 2026 re‑election campaign, hinted at a “2028 conversation,” saying he wanted to be part of the party’s future direction. The comment generated modest optimism among traders, lifting his price from 6 % on Aug 3 2025 to 6 % (steady) and later to 5 % on May 8 2026 after a series of state‑level wins.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, positioning California as a national model
In his final State of the State address, Newsom defended California's progressive policies and criticized the federal government under Trump, reinforcing his image as a national leader and potential 2028 presidential candidate. This bolstered his market standing temporarily.
Jon Ossoff exits California governor contest
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
Ossoff withdrew his candidacy amid a crowded field, causing his market price to drop from 4% to 3% as investors reassessed his chances.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech, touting California as national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
Newsom's assertive defense of California's policies and criticism of federal government under Trump elevated his national profile, boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hit with ethics complaint over misuse of funds for dance training
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%
An ethics complaint alleging Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez misused taxpayer funds for dance training emerged, damaging her reputation and contributing to a decline in her market price.
Halle Berry Criticizes Newsom for Vetoing Menopause Bill
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
Berry publicly questioned Newsom's fitness for presidency, adding fuel to speculation about his 2028 campaign.
Pete Buttigieg endorses Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate primary
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Rep. Angie Craig in a key Democratic Senate primary, signaling his active role in party politics and potential 2028 ambitions, supporting his steady market presence around 5%.
Josh Shapiro criticizes Kamala Harris for alleged falsehoods in memoir
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro publicly rebuked Harris over her memoir claims, highlighting intra-party tensions that may have influenced market perceptions of both figures.
Newsom warns of $2.9 billion budget shortfall
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom announced a $2.9 billion budget deficit for his final year, prompting concerns about fiscal management. The news corresponded with a modest decline of his market price from 36 % (early December) to 35 % by mid‑January.
Gavin Newsom speaks at New York Times Dealbook Summit
Newsom's participation in a high-profile business and government summit increased his national visibility and reinforced his status as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Jon Ossoff publicly states he has zero interest in 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Ossoff explicitly denied any plans to run for president in 2028 during an interview, leading to a significant drop in his market odds.
Newsom appears at DNC winter meeting, meets NH and NV party chairs
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
Newsom’s high‑profile appearance at the DNC winter meeting in Los Angeles, meeting state chairs from New Hampshire and Nevada, reinforced his national ambitions and moved his price from 24 % to 27 %.
Newsom warns of $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit in Newsom’s last year as governor raised concerns about his fiscal management, prompting a modest decline in his market price as investors questioned his electability.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends California governor campaign
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapse following sexual assault allegations led to his withdrawal from the governor's race, reducing competition and shifting market support among Democratic candidates.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom's final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
Newsom's office announced a significant budget shortfall, limiting new program funding in his last year. The fiscal challenge underscored the difficulties of governance and may have tempered enthusiasm for his presidential prospects, reflected in market fluctuations.
Gov. Newsom hosts controversial right‑wing guests on new podcast, sparks Democratic backlash
Gavin Newsom rises to 30%3%
Newsom’s new podcast featuring conservative figures (Charlie Kirk, Steve Bannon) generated controversy, causing his market price to swing up from 27 % to 30 % as traders debated his outreach strategy.
California to provide free diapers to newborns at 60+ hospitals
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
Newsom announced a $7.4 million free‑diaper program for newborns, framing it as a signature progressive accomplishment. The announcement gave a modest lift to his market price, which rose from 36 % on 2025‑11‑16 to 37 % on 2025‑12‑01.
Newsom’s rising national profile fuels 2028 frontrunner narrative
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom’s growing national presence and combative style against Trump increased his perceived viability, maintaining his market strength.
Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders' support for a billionaire tax in California, opposed by Newsom, highlighted intra-party divisions and affected Newsom's standing among progressive voters, contributing to market fluctuations.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom’s billionaire tax proposal in California
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over the billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party tensions, slightly lowering Newsom’s price to 35% and further depressing other candidates’ odds.
Newsom maintains front-runner status despite not officially announcing 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom's refusal to officially announce a run while continuing to build his profile kept his market price stable, reflecting confidence in his front-runner status.
Newsom maintains frontrunner status despite not officially announcing 2028 run
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom's cautious approach to announcing a campaign, combined with his continued political activity, kept his market odds stable around 36-38%, reflecting sustained confidence in his candidacy.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for 2026 re‑election campaign
Gov. Shapiro announced a record‑breaking $30 million fundraising haul for his 2026 re‑election bid, raising his profile and moving his price briefly from 5 % to 5 % (price remained low but solidified his position as a potential contender).
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s fundraising shortfall disclosed
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%
Financial disclosures revealed Ocasio‑Cortez’s campaign raised far less than anticipated, prompting a steep decline in her market price as investors doubted her viability for the 2028 ticket.
Mark Kelly gains national attention after Trump calls for his execution
Mark Kelly plunges to 1%49%
Following President Trump's call for Mark Kelly's execution, Kelly's fundraising surged dramatically, elevating his profile and prospects for a 2028 presidential run.
Pentagon investigates Sen. Mark Kelly over video urging troops to defy orders
Mark Kelly rises to 3%2%
The Pentagon's investigation into Kelly over a controversial video raised his profile among Democrats and supporters, boosting his fundraising and 2028 prospects.
Mark Kelly and other Democrats release video urging military to refuse illegal orders
Mark Kelly rises to 2%1%
Senator Mark Kelly and other Democrats released a video urging military personnel to refuse illegal orders, leading to a high-profile clash with the Trump administration. This elevated Kelly's national profile and fundraising, boosting his 2028 presidential prospects.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
Swalwell's entry into the crowded California governor race, a key stepping stone for presidential ambitions, influenced market perceptions of Newsom's successor prospects and indirectly affected Newsom's nomination chances.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, clashes with Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Sanders’ advocacy for a new billionaire tax put Newsom at odds with progressive voters, leading to a modest price decline for Newsom from 37% to 35% as his intra‑party standing appeared weakened.
Bernie Sanders campaigns against Gavin Newsom on California billionaire tax proposal
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Sanders' opposition to Newsom on the billionaire tax proposal highlighted intra-party divisions, potentially undermining Newsom's support among progressive Democrats and affecting his market price.
Kamala Harris returns to campaign trail after 2024 presidential loss
Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%
Harris's reentry into national politics and ongoing public appearances maintained her market presence despite a decline in odds.
Kamala Harris campaigns to flip Tennessee congressional seat
Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%
Kamala Harris campaigned in Nashville to support Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn in a special election, demonstrating her active political engagement and maintaining her national profile ahead of potential 2028 ambitions, which helped stabilize her market position.
Jon Stewart jokes about fan calls for a 2028 presidential bid
A segment where Stewart joked about fans wanting him to run for president generated a brief spike in his market price to 2 % before it fell back to 1 %, reflecting the novelty‑driven but fleeting nature of his impact.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending in California governor race
Steyer's heavy spending in the governor race increased competition and uncertainty, impacting market confidence in Newsom and other candidates.
Gavin Newsom declared 2028 Democratic frontrunner by Politico
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom’s strong 2025, including his fight against Trump and redistricting efforts, elevated him to front-runner status, reflected in rising market prices and broad media recognition.
Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Politico published an analysis naming Newsom the 2028 Democratic front‑runner and noting Harris lagging behind with just 9 % support. The story coincided with Harris’s mid‑term fundraising slump and pushed her market price from 39 % on Jul 11 2025 down to 6 % on Aug 2 2025.
Politico crowns Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic frontrunner
Gavin Newsom surges to 36%16%
Politico published an analysis declaring Gavin Newsom the front-runner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, citing his national profile, campaign infrastructure, and strategic positioning against Trump.
Politico declares Gavin Newsom the 2028 Democratic frontrunner
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Politico's analysis naming Newsom as the frontrunner boosted his national profile and market odds, reinforcing his lead in the crowded field.
Michelle Obama states she has no interest in running for president
Michelle Obama publicly declared she is not interested in running for president, removing a potential Democratic candidate from speculation and indirectly increasing attention on other candidates like Gavin Newsom.
Political analysts declare Gavin Newsom the 2028 Democratic front-runner
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Media coverage in Politico and others highlighted Newsom's rising stature and strategic positioning, reinforcing his market price around 38%.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential prospects and contributing to a modest pullback in his price from 38% to 35% while other candidates continued to lose ground.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom's final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
The announcement of a significant budget shortfall in California under Newsom's leadership raised concerns about his fiscal management, potentially impacting his presidential nomination prospects and market price.
Politico declares Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic frontrunner
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Politico's analysis and declaration of Newsom as the frontrunner highlighted his national profile and campaign infrastructure, reinforcing his lead in the nomination race.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez endorses a rival in California governor primary
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 4%10%
Ocasio‑Cortez publicly backed another Democratic candidate, signaling reduced personal ambition for the governor’s office and pushing her market price down from 14% to 4%.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.
Gavin Newsom signals 2028 ambitions with Texas rally after redistricting victory
Gavin Newsom jumps to 34%14%
Newsom held a rally in Texas celebrating redistricting success, signaling his presidential ambitions and energizing supporters, which helped maintain his market lead.
Newsom gains national attention by trolling Trump online
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Newsom's strategy of mimicking Trump's online style to troll him gained media attention, enhancing his profile as a leading anti-Trump Democrat and potential 2028 candidate.
Gavin Newsom rallies with Harris County Democrats in Houston, boosting national profile
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%
Newsom's active campaigning and public appearances, including a rally in Houston, enhanced his visibility and reinforced his position as the early frontrunner, supporting market prices near 38%.
Gavin Newsom campaigns nationally to support Democrats and build 2028 base
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom launched a national tour and fundraising campaign to help Democrats in key states, signaling his presidential ambitions and increasing his visibility and support.
Gavin Newsom gains front-runner status amid anti-Trump coalition support
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%5%
Newsom's rising national profile and combative stance against Trump solidified his position as the leading Democratic candidate for 2028, reflected in market price increases.
Newsom rallies in Texas, signals 2028 presidential ambitions
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Gavin Newsom held a rally in Texas criticizing Republican redistricting efforts and signaling his 2028 presidential ambitions, reinforcing his front-runner status and increasing market confidence.
Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop
Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%
The Post and Courier announced Newsom’s second South Carolina visit on 23 Feb 2026, a clear signal of a national‑stage campaign push. Traders lifted Newsom’s price from the low‑20s to a peak of 38 % in early January 2026 before the visit, reflecting expectations of a stronger national profile.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race after sexual‑assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, reshuffling support among remaining candidates and causing a brief dip in Newsom’s price as the race became more fragmented.
Gavin Newsom wins California Proposition 50, boosting Democratic congressional seats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
California Governor Gavin Newsom scored a major political win with the approval of Proposition 50, which could add up to five Democratic congressional seats, enhancing his profile as a leading 2028 presidential contender.
California voters approve Prop 50, redrawing congressional maps to favor Democrats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 34%14%
Prop 50, championed by Newsom, passed decisively, allowing Democrats to redraw congressional districts to gain up to five seats. This victory bolstered Newsom's national profile and was seen as a strategic move ahead of 2028.
Gavin Newsom scores major political win with California Proposition 50
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom's successful Prop 50 win, which could increase Democratic congressional seats in California, boosted his profile and market support as a leading 2028 contender.
California voters approve Proposition 50, boosting Newsom's political standing
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Newsom's Proposition 50 win, which gave Democrats more control over redistricting, was seen as a major political victory that enhanced his profile as a top contender for the 2028 nomination.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor’s race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 14%2%
Mahan’s entry added another high‑profile contender, fragmenting the Democratic field and pulling support away from other candidates, contributing to the drop in AOC’s price to 14% and Harris’s to 6% that week.
California voters approve new congressional district boundaries favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 31%11%
Newsom's victory in California's redistricting battle raised his national profile as a Democrat willing to confront Trump, bolstering his front-runner status for 2028.
Death of California Rep. Doug LaMalfa reduces GOP House control
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
LaMalfa's death triggered a special election and political shifts in California, indirectly affecting Democratic candidates like Newsom by altering the political landscape.
Gavin Newsom's Proposition 50 campaign boosts his national profile
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Gavin Newsom's successful campaign for California Proposition 50 enhanced his political standing and fundraising, increasing his chances as a 2028 presidential contender and positively affecting his market price.
Gavin Newsom's Proposition 50 win boosts national image
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%16%
Newsom's successful Proposition 50 campaign to gain more Democratic congressional seats in California enhanced his national profile and solidified his front-runner status for the 2028 nomination.
Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split
Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.
Supreme Court upholds new California congressional map favored by Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
The Supreme Court's decision to allow California's congressional map, supported by Newsom, reinforced his political influence and bolstered his national profile ahead of 2028.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation, focusing on Senate duties
Reports that Harris was not pursuing a 2028 run reduced her perceived candidacy, contributing to a continued decline in her market price, which fell to 4% by early November.
California Supreme Court upholds new congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
The court's decision to keep districts designed to flip Republican seats bolstered Newsom's standing as a Democratic leader, positively influencing his market price.
California drops lawsuit against Trump administration over high-speed rail funding cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
The decision to drop the lawsuit signaled a pragmatic shift in California's approach to federal relations under Newsom, reinforcing his image as a capable leader managing complex challenges ahead of a potential presidential run.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
Matt Mahan, a frequent critic of Newsom, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's record and potentially impacting Newsom's political standing and market price.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting Democratic primary dynamics
Swalwell's entry into the governor race added to the crowded Democratic field, influencing perceptions of Newsom's political future and the 2028 nomination market.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place reinforced the party’s dominance in the state, indirectly supporting Newsom’s national ambitions and nudging his price upward to 36%.
Jon Ossoff raises over $12 million for 2026 Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Ossoff's strong fundraising positioned him well for a tough 2026 reelection and increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Jon Stewart highlights evidence of Trump's planned 2028 run, sparking speculation
Jon Stewart plunges to 1%49%
On The Daily Show, Stewart pointed to Trump’s 'Trump 2028' hats and White House ballroom renovations as signs of a planned third term, fueling speculation but Stewart himself has not committed to running, with his market price near 1%.
Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both publicly consider 2028 presidential runs
Gavin Newsom jumps to 31%11%
Both Newsom and Harris publicly acknowledged considering presidential bids after the 2026 midterms, signaling their intentions and influencing market perceptions of their viability.
Gavin Newsom confirms considering 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly confirmed he was considering a 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility and market odds as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination.
Gavin Newsom confirms he will consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 36%5%
Newsom explicitly stated he would seriously consider a presidential run after the 2026 midterms, reinforcing his front-runner status and boosting market confidence.
Gavin Newsom signals consideration of 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly stated he would consider a presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, boosting his profile and market position as a leading 2028 Democratic nominee candidate.
Gavin Newsom announces he will consider 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Newsom publicly confirmed his consideration of a 2028 presidential campaign, prompting a price increase from 18% to 24% and shifting market focus to him as a potential nominee.
Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris indicated she is considering another presidential campaign in 2028, keeping her political future open and maintaining market interest despite uncertainty.
Gavin Newsom publicly confirms he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
In late October 2025, Gavin Newsom stated in a CBS interview that he would give serious thought to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, reinforcing his status as a leading contender and supporting his market price increase.
Gavin Newsom confirms he is considering 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%3%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly stated he plans to decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, signaling his intent to remain a key figure in Democratic politics and boosting his standing as a front-runner for the nomination.
Gavin Newsom says he will consider presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 39%2%
Newsom publicly stated he would consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, signaling his ambitions and increasing market confidence in his candidacy.
Gavin Newsom publicly considers 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced he would seriously consider a 2028 presidential bid following the 2026 midterm elections, boosting his market probability as a leading contender.
Gavin Newsom publicly confirms considering 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
In a CBS News interview, Newsom stated he would seriously consider a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms, marking a clear public acknowledgment of his ambitions and boosting market confidence.
Gavin Newsom Teases 2028 Presidential Bid in California
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom confirmed he would give 'serious thought' to a presidential run after the 2026 midterms, prompting market movement as he became a formal contender.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Newsom told CBS Sunday Morning he was "considering" a 2028 presidential run and would decide after the 2026 midterms. The comment raised his visibility and helped lift his market price from the low‑30s to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18 before it settled back to the mid‑20s by May 2026.
Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledges considering 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom stated in an interview that he is considering a 2028 presidential run and will decide after the 2026 midterms, boosting his market odds.
Kamala Harris Teases 2028 Presidential Run in BBC Interview
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her strongest signal yet that she is considering another run for the White House in 2028, dismissing polls that labeled her an outsider.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential campaign
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Kamala Harris gave interviews and public statements indicating she is considering another presidential run in 2028, maintaining her presence as a potential nominee despite previous losses.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris says she may run for president again
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
Harris told the BBC she "could" run again, but remained non‑committal; the lack of a firm commitment coupled with a wave of speculation caused her market odds to tumble from the high‑30s on July 2025 to the low‑single digits by May 2026.
Kamala Harris announces she is 'not done' with politics, hints at 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris indicated she might run again in 2028, which initially kept her market price elevated but later declined as Newsom's profile rose and her chances dimmed.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run in BBC interview
Harris stated she could 'possibly' run for president again, the strongest indication yet of her 2028 ambitions, which sustained market speculation despite her uncertain decision.
Kamala Harris hints at possible 2028 presidential run in BBC interview
Kamala Harris rises to 42%3%
In her first UK interview post-2024 election, Harris said she may run for president again in 2028, marking her strongest public indication yet. This renewed speculation affected her market odds positively.
‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%
In a Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg interview, former Vice‑President Harris said “I’m not done” and hinted she may run again in 2028. The comments sparked a sharp market correction for all front‑runners, driving prices from the high‑50s in mid‑July to single‑digit levels by early August as traders reassessed her viability.
Jon Stewart gains grassroots support as a potential 2028 Democratic nominee
Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%
Though a long shot, Stewart's popularity and outsider status have generated enthusiasm and media attention, reflected in a small but notable market presence.
Gavin Newsom states he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom surges to 37%17%
Newsom's public statement about seriously considering a presidential run after the 2026 midterms boosted market confidence in his candidacy, reflected in a price increase from 20% to 37%.
Gavin Newsom says he will seriously consider 2028 White House run after 2026 midterms
In an interview, Newsom confirmed he would give serious thought to a presidential run after the 2026 midterms, reinforcing market confidence and supporting his nomination prospects.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The court’s decision secured a map that benefits Democratic candidates statewide, indirectly supporting Newsom’s party and modestly improving his market price.
Gavin Newsom announces affordable insulin pricing initiative
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Governor Newsom announced a new insulin glargine pen priced at no more than $55 per five-pack, showcasing his focus on healthcare affordability and raising his profile nationally.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, leading to public criticism from actress Halle Berry and impacting his support among women, reflected in market fluctuations.
Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause‑care bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%2%
Newsom’s October veto of AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause treatment, drew criticism from actress Halle Berry and women's‑health advocates, raising doubts about his appeal to female voters and causing his market price to dip before rebounding later in the month.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured Democratic‑leaning districts for the 2026 elections, reinforcing the perception that California Democrats, including potential presidential contenders, have structural advantages, which helped stabilize Newsom’s price after earlier volatility.
Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%
Governor Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized the veto at the New York Times DealBook Summit, calling Newsom unfit for higher office. The controversy coincided with a sharp decline in Newsom’s market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑02 to 28 % on 2025‑02‑17, reflecting voter backlash over the veto.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause-related insurance coverage bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill sparked public criticism, including from actress Halle Berry, which may have tempered some enthusiasm but did not significantly derail his nomination prospects.
Kamala Harris’s poll support plunges to historic low
Kamala Harris plunges to 2%37%
A new poll showing Harris trailing significantly in national favorability triggered a sharp price drop for her, reflecting diminished expectations of a 2028 nomination.
Kamala Harris drops out of California governor race
Kamala Harris dips to 2%4%
Harris announced she would not run for California governor, removing her from the race and causing her market price to fall sharply from 6% to 2% the following week.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Newsom's veto of a menopause-related healthcare bill led to public criticism from actress Halle Berry, potentially impacting his support among women voters and affecting his presidential nomination chances.
Jon Ossoff endorses a rival candidate in California governor’s race
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Ossoff’s endorsement of another contender signaled shifting alliances, contributing to his own price falling from 50% to 4% that week.
Josh Shapiro pleads guilty to charges related to arson attack on governor's residence
Josh Shapiro's political profile was affected by the arson attack on his residence and subsequent guilty plea by the perpetrator. While not directly related to his presidential ambitions, the event drew media attention and sympathy, impacting his public image.
Kamala Harris appears at 2025 Met Gala in striking Off-White gown
Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%
Kamala Harris made a high-profile public appearance at the Met Gala, showcasing her elegance and maintaining public visibility after her 2024 presidential defeat, causing a minor price rebound.
National Media Highlights Andy Beshear as First-Tier 2028 Presidential Contender
Andy Beshear dips to 3%1%
Articles in Washington Monthly and interviews on NPR's Morning Edition elevated Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear's national profile as a serious potential candidate for the 2028 nomination.
Pete Buttigieg speaks at Syracuse University on sustainability and leadership
Buttigieg's public speaking engagements, including this event, maintained his visibility and relevance as a potential candidate, supporting his market presence despite low odds.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, prompting actress Halle Berry to publicly criticize him for 'devaluing women,' which likely affected his support among progressive voters and influenced his market price.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
The announced deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, causing his price to dip from 37% to 36% as investors reassessed his electability.
Newsom’s State of the State speech attacks Trump and highlights California as a national model
Governor Newsom used his October State of the State address to position himself as a bulwark against the Trump administration, emphasizing his record on homelessness, climate, and health care, which boosted his perceived presidential viability.
Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%
Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom used his final State of the State address to defend his record and position California as a national model against federal overreach, signaling his commitment to progressive policies and hinting at a 2028 presidential run. This bolstered his profile and market confidence in his candidacy.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill and Halle Berry's public criticism negatively affected his support among some voters, causing market fluctuations.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%1%
Swalwell's gubernatorial campaign announcement added to the crowded field to replace Newsom, signaling a competitive environment that could influence Newsom's political trajectory and market perception.
Gov. Gavin Newsom blasts Donald Trump on ‘The Late Show,’ calling him a vulgar insult
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom called former President Trump a vulgar insult on a national TV show, raising his profile as a fierce opponent of Trump. The market’s price for Newsom jumped from 20 % to 35 % within days, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
Gov. Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in final State of the State address
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%13%
Newsom used his September State of the State speech to position California as a model for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, boosting his visibility and perceived electability, which pushed his market price from 19% to 32%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez weighs presidential bid options
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 9%5%
Reports emerged that Ocasio-Cortez was considering a presidential run or Senate bid, fueling speculation and market activity around her nomination chances.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's team spends heavily on digital ads to build 2028 campaign infrastructure
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 13%37%
AOC's campaign invested millions in digital advertising and grassroots fundraising, signaling serious preparation for a 2028 presidential run, though market prices declined amid electability concerns.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is eyeing a presidential run in 2028: report
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 10%3%
Reports surfaced that AOC was seriously considering a 2028 presidential run or a Senate bid, increasing speculation and media coverage, which influenced market attention despite her declining odds.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez eyes 2028 presidential run, weighing Senate bid
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 10%3%
Reports emerged that AOC and her team were deciding between a Senate run or a presidential bid in 2028, fueling speculation and affecting her market price. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in her market position.
AOC trails in new youth poll for 2028 Democratic presidential field
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
A poll released by The Argument and Verasight showed AOC trailing the hypothetical 2028 Democratic field, dropping her market odds from the initial 50 % to around 8‑9 % by September 2025, coinciding with the sharp price fall seen in the market data.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez considers 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Reports emerged that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is preparing for a possible 2028 presidential run, increasing her visibility and market interest as a progressive contender.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez reportedly preparing for 2028 presidential or Senate run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 13%3%
Reports emerged that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is preparing for either a 2028 presidential run or a Senate primary challenge, increasing her visibility and fundraising efforts, which corresponded with a price increase in the market.
AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
Axios reported that AOC was weighing a 2028 Senate or presidential run and had hired senior Sanders advisors. The speculation sent her price from the high‑50s in early July down to the low‑10s by late September as market participants reassessed the viability of a congressional member’s national bid.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez reportedly eyes 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 12%4%
Progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been reported to be considering a run for president in 2028, as she expands her national presence and fundraising efforts, influencing market perceptions of her candidacy.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez prepares for 2028 presidential or Senate run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 30%20%
Reports emerged that Ocasio-Cortez and her team are actively preparing for a 2028 presidential or Senate campaign, boosting her market prospects early in the analysis window.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Eyeing 2028 Presidential Run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 10%3%
Reports emerged that progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was actively preparing for a potential 2028 presidential or Senate run, expanding her national fundraising and social media presence.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals possible 2028 presidential run amid increased visibility
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%2%
Reports indicated that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was considering a presidential run in 2028, increasing her political visibility and causing fluctuations in her market odds as traders reassessed her chances.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $15.4 million in first half of 2025
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Ocasio-Cortez's significant fundraising haul indicated her ambition for higher office, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential or Senate run and impacting her market price.
Kamala Harris announces memoir '107 Days' recounting 2024 campaign
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Harris announced a memoir detailing her brief 2024 presidential campaign, renewing media attention and slightly boosting her market price.
Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%
The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%
Harris’s decision to stay out of the race removed a major competitor, but the market interpreted it as a signal of limited support for establishment candidates, pushing her price down to 5%.
Pete Buttigieg campaigns in Indiana amid 2028 presidential speculation
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
Buttigieg appeared at a rally in Indiana, signaling his readiness for a 2028 presidential run and criticizing Trump’s economic policies, which helped maintain his visibility and support in the Democratic field.
Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Governor Newsom used his final State of the State speech to highlight California’s policy successes and position himself as a bulwark against federal Republican policies, boosting his perceived presidential ambitions and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%
Berry publicly criticized Newsom for vetoing menopause-related legislation, calling him unfit to be president and contributing to market price fluctuations.
Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address, touts California as a national model
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%
Newsom’s speech highlighted his record and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his visibility and perceived electability, which coincided with a rise in his market price from 18% to 32% in early September.
James Talarico announces candidacy for 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
Talarico's entry into the Senate race increased his visibility and market price slightly from 1% to 2%.
Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%
Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for a new billionaire wealth tax in California placed Newsom in direct opposition, creating intra‑party tension. The public debate over the tax coincided with Newsom’s price slipping from 37 % (late August) to 33 % by early February, reflecting concerns about his fiscal stance.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Mahan's entry into the governor race as a Newsom critic introduced new dynamics in California politics, potentially affecting Newsom's presidential prospects by highlighting intra-party challenges.
California budget shortfall of $2.9 billion reported for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit highlighted fiscal challenges for Newsom, prompting concerns about his electability and pulling his price down.
Poll shows Newsom leading in early California governor primary
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
A September poll gave Newsom a clear lead among Democratic governor candidates, prompting a jump from 20% to 32% as voters saw him as the likely front‑runner.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The decision was seen as a win for Democratic leaders like Newsom, reinforcing his influence in the state and nudging his price upward to 32% while other candidates slipped.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million, setting Pennsylvania fundraising record
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Shapiro’s massive fundraising haul highlighted his national profile but also underscored his focus on Pennsylvania, causing market participants to shift away from his 2028 presidential prospects.
California budget shortfall disclosed for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The revelation of a $2.9 billion deficit in Newsom’s last fiscal year highlighted fiscal challenges, prompting investors to view him as a more serious contender and pushing his price to 32%.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire‑tax proposal, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ high‑profile visit to champion a proposed wealth tax put Newsom in direct opposition, highlighting intra‑party conflict and slightly lowering his market price while also dragging down other candidates perceived as aligned with the establishment.
Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%
Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor's race as a Newsom critic introduced a competitive dynamic for Newsom's successor position, indirectly affecting Newsom's presidential prospects by highlighting challenges within California politics.
Poll shows Pete Buttigieg at zero percent support among Black voters
Despite efforts to address racial equity in infrastructure, Buttigieg's support among Black voters remained negligible, negatively impacting his overall 2028 nomination chances.
Letter urges Democrats to consider Andy Beshear for 2028 presidential run
A public letter highlighted Andy Beshear's bipartisan appeal and leadership in a red state, advocating for him as a unifying Democratic presidential candidate, which contributed to increased attention and market interest.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor race as a Newsom critic introduced new competition and highlighted challenges to Newsom's leadership, influencing market perceptions of Newsom's political strength.
Andy Beshear releases faith‑based memoir ahead of 2028 speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Governor Andy Beshear released a book focused on his Christian faith and political vision, giving him modest national exposure and nudging his price from 2 % to 3 % as traders saw a new potential presidential figure.
Kamala Harris formally accepts Democratic presidential nomination in Chicago
Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic nomination in a historic speech, pledging unity and outlining her vision for America. This solidified her status as the party's nominee and maintained her market lead.
California voters approve new congressional district boundaries
Gavin Newsom jumps to 36%5%
California voters approved new congressional district boundaries, a victory for Democrats led by Gavin Newsom, enhancing his national profile as a fighter against Republican redistricting efforts. This bolstered Newsom's standing as a leading 2028 presidential contender.
California voters approve Proposition 50 redrawing congressional maps
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California voters approved a redistricting plan pushed by Governor Gavin Newsom, enhancing Democratic prospects in the state and boosting Newsom's political standing.
California Legislature passes redistricting plan for special election
Gavin Newsom jumps to 31%11%
California passed a redistricting plan backed by Newsom to redraw congressional districts, aiming to help Democrats gain seats, enhancing Newsom's national stature and presidential viability.
Gavin Newsom surges in polls after aggressive stance against Trump
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
California Governor Gavin Newsom's popularity surged as he adopted a combative posture against Donald Trump, boosting his profile as a leading 2028 Democratic presidential contender. This contributed to a steady increase in his market price.
Supreme Court upholds California’s new congressional map
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%2%
The Supreme Court’s order preserving the new congressional map, which could flip up to five Republican seats, was welcomed by Newsom, who touted the decision as a win for Democrats. The announcement helped Newsom’s market price bounce from 33 % (early August) to 35 % by early September.
Gavin Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom used his August State of the State address to portray California as a blueprint for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his national profile and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Pete Buttigieg scheduled to deliver remarks at DNC Wednesday night
Buttigieg was scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention, keeping his price stable around 4 % but providing a brief flare of media attention that halted any further decline.
California launches free newborn diaper program
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The rollout of a high‑visibility social‑policy program highlighted Newsom’s progressive credentials, reinforcing his appeal to Democratic voters and nudging his price upward from 35% to 38% over the next two weeks.
Support for Gavin Newsom jumps in early 2028 presidential polling
An Echelon Insights poll showed Newsom rising to 13% support, second only to Kamala Harris, reflecting growing voter appetite for his combative style and boosting his market position.
Gavin Newsom rises in early 2028 Democratic presidential nomination polling
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Polling data in August 2025 showed Gavin Newsom gaining support as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, rising to 13% in some surveys and overtaking other contenders. This polling boost contributed to his market price increase.
Support for Gavin Newsom surges amid combative stance against Trump
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%
In August 2025, Gavin Newsom's support increased due to his aggressive social media strategy mocking Trump and his leadership on redistricting efforts, boosting his market odds.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom surging in Democratic 2028 primary race
Gavin Newsom jumps to 28%10%
An Echelon Insights poll found Newsom rising to 13% support, second only to Kamala Harris at 26%, marking a significant increase from earlier months and boosting his market odds.
Gavin Newsom announces redistricting package to counter Texas Republicans
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a redistricting package aimed at securing five more safe Democratic congressional districts, enhancing his standing within the party and boosting his 2028 presidential prospects.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches California governor campaign
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile contender, further fragmenting the field and contributing to the early drop in AOC’s price from 50% to 16% that week.
Gavin Newsom's support surges in early 2028 presidential polling
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%
Polling data showed a sharp increase in support for Gavin Newsom as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, reflecting his rising national profile and combative stance against President Trump, which boosted his market odds.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum in 2028 nomination markets after rally criticizing Trump administration
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%
Ossoff's public criticism of corruption and affordability issues boosted his profile and market odds, moving him ahead of some established contenders despite his public denial of interest in running.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Mahan’s entry added another moderate Democrat, further fragmenting the field and prompting a reallocation of support that nudged Newsom’s price upward while pulling votes from other contenders.
Gavin Newsom's price jumps amid increased media presence and merchandise sales
Gavin Newsom jumps to 28%8%
Newsom's price increased due to his active self-promotion, including selling merchandise inspired by Trump-style branding and engaging in media activities, boosting his visibility and perceived viability.
Gavin Newsom publicly hints at 2028 presidential run in CBS News interview
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms, marking a shift from previous denials. This public hint increased market confidence in his candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 20% to 35%.
Gavin Newsom hints at 2028 White House run in CBS News interview
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential bid, increasing market confidence and price from 20% to 35%.
Gavin Newsom adopts combative social media style to raise national profile
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%16%
Newsom's press office began using emphatic, all-caps phrasing similar to Donald Trump's style, drawing attention and signaling a more aggressive national stance, which increased his visibility as a potential 2028 candidate.
Gavin Newsom accuses Trump of plotting unconstitutional third term
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
Newsom publicly warned that Trump might run for a third term in 2028, linking it to efforts to manipulate elections. This confrontation raised Newsom's national profile and boosted his market price from 20% to 24%.
Gavin Newsom accuses Donald Trump of laying groundwork for unprecedented third term
Newsom publicly warned about Trump's efforts to manipulate the electoral system for a potential third term, raising his national profile and boosting speculation about his own 2028 presidential run, which increased his market price.
Gavin Newsom announces Proposition 50 redistricting plan to secure Democratic districts
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
In mid-August 2025, Gavin Newsom announced a redistricting package aimed at creating five safe Democratic districts to counter Republican efforts. This boosted his market price as it demonstrated political influence and strategic planning for future elections.
Federal raid outside California Gov. Newsom event
A federal raid near a Newsom event attracted media attention, increasing scrutiny on Newsom and causing a temporary market reaction.
Pete Buttigieg signals possible 2028 presidential run amid mixed support
Pete Buttigieg dips to 8%4%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg hinted at a 2028 presidential run during public appearances and interviews, but faced challenges including low support among Black voters, leading to modest market movement.
Gavin Newsom warns of Trump’s potential third term, sparking media attention
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom accused Trump of laying groundwork for an unconstitutional third term and highlighted gerrymandering efforts, raising his national profile and causing a market rise from 20% to 35%.
Federal raid outside Newsom event sparks political tension
A federal raid occurred outside a Newsom event, fueling political controversy and contributing to market volatility as Newsom's price fluctuated.
Pennsylvania GOP candidate attacks Josh Shapiro over rumored presidential ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Republican Stacy Garrity launched a campaign against Josh Shapiro, criticizing his rumored 2028 presidential ambitions. This political pressure likely contributed to Shapiro's market price decline as it highlighted challenges he faced ahead of his re-election campaign.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 15%3%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg gave a clear signal of his intention to run for president in 2028 by responding affirmatively to a direct question about running, sparking a rise in his market odds and media speculation.
Jon Ossoff declares no interest in 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff publicly stated he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his Senate reelection. This statement coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to around 4%.
Kamala Harris named official 2024 Democratic nominee, later declines 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Harris secured the 2024 Democratic nomination, but later announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Her market price declined as she removed herself from immediate contention.
Pollster Nate Silver names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez most likely 2028 Democratic nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Nate Silver publicly endorsed Ocasio-Cortez as the strongest contender for the 2028 nomination, boosting her media profile and market odds significantly.
Sen. Mark Kelly delivers routine space‑policy remarks on Senate floor
Mark Kelly plunges to 2%48%
A low‑profile Senate speech by Mark Kelly on space policy received minimal media coverage; the market recorded a drop from 50 % to 1 % within days, reflecting the lack of any campaign‑related signal.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal
Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%
A Kentucky‑focused op‑ed in the Lexington Herald highlighted Beshear’s recent visit to South Carolina and his appeal to both Democrats and independents, raising his national profile. The coverage coincided with a price rise from 7 % on Aug 3 2025 to 7 % (stable) and later a slight climb to 3 % on May 8 2026 as his name entered more national conversations.
Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.
President Trump attacks Gov. Newsom’s dyslexia, calling him “stupid”
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Trump’s personal insults against Newsom drew national attention and polarized voters; the controversy briefly lifted Newsom’s profile but also prompted backlash that slowed his price rise, contributing to a dip from 36% to 35% the following week.
Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
A poll released by Morning Consult (reported by Politico) showed Ocasio‑Cortez dropping from a double‑digit lead among progressive voters to 13 % overall support. The sharp decline coincided with a 40‑point swing in the market, pulling her price from 50 % to 16 % within three days.
Kamala Harris officially secures Democratic presidential nomination
Kamala Harris secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination for president, confirmed by Associated Press and party sources, solidifying her status as the nominee and impacting market prices accordingly.
Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in State of the State address
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioning California as a model for the nation raised his national profile and suggested a 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Eric Swalwell launches California governor bid on national TV
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell’s high‑profile announcement on Jimmy Kimmel Live! added a prominent contender to the race, drawing attention away from other Democrats and contributing to early price volatility for Newsom and his rivals.
Pete Buttigieg raises $1.6 million for leadership PAC, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions
Pete Buttigieg rises to 16%4%
Buttigieg led fundraising among potential 2028 Democratic contenders, raising $1.6 million for his leadership PAC, indicating active preparation for a presidential run. This boosted his market price significantly.
Radio host Charlamagne tha God endorses Jon Stewart for 2028 presidential run
Jon Stewart plunges to 16%34%
Charlamagne tha God publicly suggested Jon Stewart should run for president in 2028, highlighting Stewart as a potential change agent. This endorsement increased public speculation and briefly influenced Stewart's market price, though he did not confirm any candidacy.
Gavin Newsom announces he will seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom publicly confirmed his intention to run for president, boosting his perceived viability and lifting his market price from 18% to 20% that week.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, expanding crowded Democratic field
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile candidate, intensifying competition and contributing to a sharp drop in the market prices of other potential nominees, including Kamala Harris (down to 6%) and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (down to 16%).
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor race and his criticism of Newsom highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, impacting Newsom's market perception.
Kamala Harris's market odds drop sharply amid rising competition
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Harris's market price fell from 39% to 6% as Newsom and other candidates gained momentum, reflecting diminished expectations for her nomination.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting fight against Trump
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell's entry into the California governor race as a Democrat and vocal Trump critic initially raised his profile, impacting market perceptions of Democratic contenders including Newsom and others in the crowded field.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run in CBS interview
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated in an August 2025 interview that she did not want to return to the system but hinted she could make another White House bid, fueling speculation and modest market interest in her 2028 prospects.
Jon Stewart rejects calls to run for president
Jon Stewart plunges to 0%50%
When asked on a Daily Show Q&A whether he would run for president, Stewart firmly denied any interest, pushing his market price to the floor (0 %), reflecting negligible expectations of a serious candidacy.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Kamala Harris publicly ruled out a 2026 California gubernatorial run, signaling a potential focus on a 2028 presidential bid, which influenced her market odds and public speculation.
Kamala Harris announces book recounting 2024 presidential campaign, hints at 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 8%31%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced a book release recounting her 2024 presidential campaign and expanded her book tour in 2026, signaling continued interest in a possible 2028 presidential run.
Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee
Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%
A satirical piece on a fringe website claimed Jon Stewart was the “2028 Democratic nominee,” which was quickly debunked by mainstream outlets. The absurd claim caused a brief spike in curiosity trading, pushing his price from 50 % to 3 % on Aug 3 2025, after which the market corrected to 1 % by Sep 3 2025.
Jon Stewart teases 2028 presidential speculation on X
Jon Stewart rises to 2%2%
Stewart briefly hinted at a possible presidential bid on social media, temporarily lifting his market price from 0 % to 2 % before it fell back as the idea failed to gain traction.
Kamala Harris ends California governor bid, hints at 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. This move kept her in the conversation as a potential nominee, impacting her market price.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris decided against running for California governor, preserving her potential to run for president in 2028. This decision likely reduced her immediate political momentum, reflected in a price drop from 39% to 6% shortly after.
Criticism mounts over Jon Ossoff's acceptance of billionaire donations
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Reports revealed that Jon Ossoff accepted significant campaign donations from billionaires and corporate PACs, contradicting his public stance against such funding. This led to negative press and a sharp drop in his market price.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
In a July 28, 2025 NPR interview, Pete Buttigieg discussed the future of the Democratic Party and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run, avoiding a direct confirmation but fueling speculation. This contributed to his initial market price but was followed by declines as doubts about his viability grew.
Pete Buttigieg warns Democrats against returning to pre-Trump status quo
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg gave a high-profile NPR interview warning that Democrats must move past the old status quo, fueling early speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions.
Josh Shapiro explains appeal to Trump voters on Stephen Colbert's show
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro appeared on Stephen Colbert's show, highlighting his ability to connect with Trump voters and his popularity in a key swing state, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Georgia Democrats push for 2028 convention amid Ossoff's presidential run downplay
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Georgia Democrats advocated for hosting the 2028 Democratic National Convention, raising Ossoff's profile, but Ossoff publicly stated he had zero interest in running for president in 2028, which led to a sharp decline in his market price.
Joe Biden withdraws from 2028 presidential race, endorses Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%
President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2028 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, causing a surge in Harris's market price and a decline in other candidates' odds as expectations shifted.
Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run speculation, expresses skepticism
Jon Stewart plunges to 1%49%
Jon Stewart publicly addressed calls for him to run for president in 2028, suggesting the desire stems from public dissatisfaction rather than his own intent, coinciding with his market price dropping from 50% to 1%.
Jon Ossoff launches $30 million fundraising push for 2026 Senate race
Sen. Ossoff announced a $30 million fundraising effort for his 2026 re‑election campaign, giving a modest boost to his nomination odds and stabilising his price at 7 %.
Jon Ossoff reports $15.5 million cash on hand for 2026 Senate race
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
Ossoff's campaign announced raising over $10 million in Q2 2025, ending with $15.5 million cash, demonstrating strong fundraising advantage and campaign viability for 2026 Senate race.
Jon Ossoff outpaces GOP challengers with record fundraising in Georgia Senate race
Ossoff announced raising over $10 million in Q2 2025, vastly outpacing Republican opponents and solidifying his political strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, boosting his profile as a 2028 presidential contender.
Sharp decline in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's market odds after early enthusiasm wanes
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Ocasio-Cortez's market price dropped sharply from 50% to 16% amid shifting political dynamics and rising competition, signaling reduced confidence in her nomination chances.
California Governor Gavin Newsom faces criticism amid rising unemployment and homelessness
Gavin Newsom rises to 19%1%
Reports of worsening economic conditions in California put pressure on Newsom's image, causing fluctuations in his nomination odds as voters assessed his leadership during crises.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leaves door open for 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signaled openness to a 2028 presidential bid during a town hall, which briefly supported her market price despite overall declines.
Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%
Biden's withdrawal and endorsement rapidly boosted Kamala Harris's delegate support, leading to her securing the Democratic nomination for 2024. This event marked Harris's official rise as the party's presidential candidate, impacting her 2028 nomination odds positively initially.
Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws
Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%
Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race, Kamala Harris quickly secured the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Black woman and first Asian American to lead a major party's presidential ticket. This historic event significantly boosted her market probability as the likely nominee.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals openness to 2028 presidential run
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Ocasio-Cortez left the door open for a 2028 presidential bid during a town hall, fueling speculation but her market odds declined over the period due to other factors.
Jon Ossoff viral anti-Trump speech sparks 2028 front-runner predictions
Jon Ossoff jumps to 58%8%
Ossoff's speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church in Atlanta went viral, with him calling Trump a 'spiritually broken president' and criticizing election deniers. The viral moment led to increased speculation about his 2028 presidential prospects and a rise in his market odds.
Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump
Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%
Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a rally in Augusta, Georgia, where he criticized President Trump and his administration for corruption and policy failures. This increased his visibility and positioned him as a top contender behind Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads progressive fundraising and gains poll momentum for 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
AOC raised over $15 million in 2025 and drew massive crowds nationwide, positioning herself as a strong progressive contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, which contributed to her early high market price before a decline.
Early polls show Kamala Harris leading Democratic 2028 primary field
Kamala Harris topped early polls as the leading Democratic candidate for 2028, reflecting her status as the 2024 nominee and maintaining strong base support despite her loss. This early momentum contributed to her initial market price around 39%.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear campaigns in South Carolina, sparking 2028 speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 10%3%
Andy Beshear's visit to a key early primary state and his public comments about healing the country fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, leading to increased market interest.
Newsom's Social Media Strategy Gains National Attention
Gavin Newsom surges to 51%33%
Newsom's active social media presence, including mimicking Trump's communication style, drew attention and positioned him as a potential 2028 candidate.
Gavin Newsom emerges as early frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's early positioning as California governor and potential 2028 presidential contender raised his market price from 18% to 20%, reflecting increased trader confidence in his candidacy.
Newsom's price peaks at 51% on State of the State address
Gavin Newsom surges to 51%33%
Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, criticizing Trump's policies and defending California's progressive record, boosting his market price to 51% as he nears the end of his term.
Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes
Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%
Newsom’s early July remarks that he was “considering a 2028 White House run” sparked a surge in speculation about his presidential ambitions, driving the market price for all listed candidates up to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18. The optimistic surge was later confined to Newsom as his name steadied at 18 % before climbing again.
Supreme Court upholds California’s new congressional map
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep the new map, which could flip several House seats, reinforced Newsom’s redistricting strategy and boosted confidence in his statewide leadership, nudging his price upward while other candidates saw little change.
Andy Beshear campaigns in South Carolina, testing 2028 presidential message
Andy Beshear jumps to 7%5%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear toured South Carolina, a key early primary state, laying groundwork for a possible 2028 presidential run. This activity contributed to his market price rising from 2% to 7%.
Kamala Harris Announces Memoir '107 Days' Detailing Her 2024 Presidential Campaign
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced the upcoming release of her memoir '107 Days' and ruled out a run for California governor, shifting focus to her national political future.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear visits South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions
Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%
Beshear's early campaign activities in a key primary state and media appearances increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run, modestly affecting his market odds.
Gavin Newsom's chances spike amid public feuds with Trump officials
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom's public confrontations with Trump administration officials and MAGA influencers increased his visibility and boosted his odds in prediction markets, reflecting growing support for his potential 2028 presidential bid.
Gavin Newsom publicly challenges Texas GOP redistricting efforts
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Gavin Newsom responded to Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting by signaling a counter effort in California, boosting his profile as a national Democratic leader and increasing his presidential run prospects.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Jon Ossoff declares zero interest in 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff publicly stated he has no interest in running for president in 2028, causing his market price to drop sharply from 50% to around 4% within weeks.
Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.
Gavin Newsom tours South Carolina, engaging voters in early primary state
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, a key early primary state, increased his visibility and credibility as a 2028 presidential contender, contributing to a rise in his market probability from 18% to 20%.
Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front-runner amid national attention
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's national profile rose significantly in 2025, positioning him as the leading Democratic candidate for 2028, helped by his opposition to Trump and California political successes. This boosted market confidence in his nomination chances.
Jon Ossoff delivers sharp criticism of Trump at Augusta rally
Jon Ossoff jumps to 58%8%
Senator Jon Ossoff sharply criticized former President Donald Trump and his administration at a rally in Augusta, Georgia, highlighting issues of corruption and affordability. This speech increased Ossoff's visibility and boosted his odds in prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Jon Ossoff delivers sharp criticism of Trump at Augusta rally
Jon Ossoff jumps to 58%8%
Senator Jon Ossoff's pointed attack on President Trump at a rally in Augusta, Georgia, accusing him of corruption and mishandling key issues, led to a surge in his prediction market odds, positioning him as a top contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation into him and his wife
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom publicly revealed a politically motivated DOJ investigation, which introduced uncertainty but also rallied some support, impacting his market price.
Jon Ossoff holds rally in Georgia attacking Trump and GOP policies
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff held a rally in Savannah, Georgia, criticizing President Trump and Republican policies, energizing his base and highlighting his campaign for 2026 Senate reelection, which influenced his market price.
Gavin Newsom sues Fox News for $787 million for defamation
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's high-profile lawsuit against Fox News for defamation brought national attention to his political profile, potentially boosting his visibility and market confidence as a presidential candidate.
Jon Ossoff holds Rally for Our Republic in Savannah, Georgia
Jon Ossoff held a significant rally in Savannah, Georgia, marking his active engagement in the 2026 Senate race and raising his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. This event contributed to early market interest in his candidacy.
Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run after 2024 defeat
Following her 2024 election loss, Harris indicated she was 'not done' with politics and might run again in 2028, initially supporting a market price near 39%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads early 2028 Democratic nominee polls
Early polling showed Ocasio-Cortez as a top contender with strong support among younger voters, reflected in a high market price of 50%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerges as leading 2028 Democratic front-runner
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
AOC raised $15 million in 2025 and drew massive crowds nationwide, positioning herself as a potential frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. This fundraising and enthusiasm spike caused her market price to surge early in the analysis window.
Gavin Newsom signals 2028 presidential ambitions after midterm elections
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, boosting market confidence in his candidacy and raising his odds from 18% to around 35%.
Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run speculation, dismisses candidacy
Jon Stewart plunges to 1%49%
Jon Stewart publicly addressed speculation about a 2028 presidential run, characterizing public calls as stemming from desperation and dissatisfaction, which led to a sharp decline in his market price.
Rahm Emanuel hints at 2028 presidential run with early campaign activities
Rahm Emanuel plunges to 1%49%
Rahm Emanuel strongly implied a 2028 presidential bid, previewing a tough campaign style and visiting early primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This early positioning raised his profile and market interest despite his low odds.
Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
On July 11, 2025, Pete Buttigieg announced he would not run for Michigan's open Senate seat in 2026, signaling his intention to keep the door open for a 2028 presidential run. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price as it clarified his immediate political plans.
Gavin Newsom tours South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom conducted a two-day tour in South Carolina, an early primary state, engaging with voters and local Democrats, which was widely interpreted as laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential run. This boosted his market price from 18% to 35%.
Gavin Newsom emerges as early frontrunner in 2028 Democratic nomination race
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Polls in mid-2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field with significant support, positioning him as the early favorite for the 2028 nomination. This early momentum set the stage for his sustained lead in the market.
Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom's announcement of a significant budget shortfall highlighted fiscal challenges in California, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability. Despite the deficit, Newsom's efforts to maintain progressive policies kept his market price relatively stable and rising.
Gavin Newsom considered a potential 2028 presidential contender amid California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's early positioning as a 2028 presidential hopeful alongside his role as California governor increased market interest in his candidacy, reflected in rising prices.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sparks 2028 presidential buzz with cross-country tour
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned across multiple states, drawing attention as a potential 2028 presidential candidate and fueling speculation despite no formal announcement, initially supporting higher market odds.
Gavin Newsom announces consideration of 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom publicly indicated he would consider a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterm elections, boosting his market price from 18% to 25%. This announcement positioned him as a leading Democratic contender.
Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledges considering 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom stated he is seriously contemplating a 2028 presidential campaign after the 2026 elections, which increased market confidence in his candidacy and raised his price from 18% to around 35% shortly after.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ramps up 2028 presidential positioning with national campaigning
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
AOC increased her national presence and fundraising efforts, positioning herself as a potential 2028 candidate, though her market odds declined over time amid competition and strategic uncertainty.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear lays groundwork for 2028 presidential run in South Carolina
Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%
Beshear spoke about culture wars and progressive policies while visiting South Carolina, signaling early positioning for a 2028 presidential bid. This helped raise his profile among Democratic voters and donors ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Gavin Newsom gains momentum with redistricting initiative in California
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom's announcement and push for a redistricting package aimed at securing more Democratic congressional seats in California boosted his profile as a strategic leader, increasing his chances as a 2028 presidential contender.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech highlighting California's progressive policies
Gavin Newsom rises to 21%3%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal chaos and Trump administration policies, boosting his national profile and increasing market confidence in his 2028 presidential nomination chances.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
California Governor Gavin Newsom's approval rises amid wildfire crisis
Gavin Newsom surges to 51%33%
Newsom's handling of the January 2025 California wildfires and subsequent emergency declarations boosted his national profile, contributing to an increase in his odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination from 18% to a peak of 51%.
Josh Shapiro listed fifth in new poll for 2028 Democratic primary support
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
A June Emerson College poll showed Josh Shapiro with 7% support, placing him fifth among potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, indicating early recognition but limited national traction compared to leaders like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.
Josh Shapiro focuses on 2026 midterms, hints at 2028 presidential ambitions
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro emphasized his 2026 reelection and midterm strategy while hinting at a future presidential run, but his lack of clear presidential campaign activity led to a sharp price drop.
Jon Ossoff publicly states he has no interest in 2028 presidential run
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly declared he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, which led to a sharp decline in his market price as speculation cooled.
Multiple Democratic candidates start with high market odds but decline over time
Candidates like Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, and Mark Kelly began with 50% odds but saw steady declines as Newsom emerged as frontrunner, reflecting market consolidation.
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