The Jetten minority cabinet, formed in February 2026 after the October 2025 snap election and the prior Schoof coalition's collapse, has prioritized stability through its coalition agreement focused on structural reforms and cross-party support. With 66 seats short of a majority, the government has already navigated initial parliamentary debates and faces its next major test during the fall budget process, but no credible triggers for early dissolution—such as coalition breakdowns or irreconcilable policy disputes—have emerged. Traders price the low probability of formal dissolution before year-end at 92% for “No,” reflecting the new cabinet’s incentives to complete its term and the absence of immediate political catalysts that historically prompt Tweede Kamer dissolution.