Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention at Silivri Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. A mass trial involving over 400 defendants opened in March 2026 and continues with ongoing hearings; Turkish courts have repeatedly denied his release requests while granting conditional release to some co-defendants. Separate proceedings added espionage-related counts in late 2025, and on September 11, 2026, a court sentenced him to two years and one month in prison plus a political ban in a retried insult case previously acquitted twice. These layered judicial processes and extended timelines underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against release by December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention at Silivri Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. A mass trial involving over 400 defendants opened in March 2026 and continues with ongoing hearings; Turkish courts have repeatedly denied his release requests while granting conditional release to some co-defendants. Separate proceedings added espionage-related counts in late 2025, and on September 11, 2026, a court sentenced him to two years and one month in prison plus a political ban in a retried insult case previously acquitted twice. These layered judicial processes and extended timelines underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against release by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Объем
$6,407Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention at Silivri Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. A mass trial involving over 400 defendants opened in March 2026 and continues with ongoing hearings; Turkish courts have repeatedly denied his release requests while granting conditional release to some co-defendants. Separate proceedings added espionage-related counts in late 2025, and on September 11, 2026, a court sentenced him to two years and one month in prison plus a political ban in a retried insult case previously acquitted twice. These layered judicial processes and extended timelines underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against release by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,407Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention at Silivri Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. A mass trial involving over 400 defendants opened in March 2026 and continues with ongoing hearings; Turkish courts have repeatedly denied his release requests while granting conditional release to some co-defendants. Separate proceedings added espionage-related counts in late 2025, and on September 11, 2026, a court sentenced him to two years and one month in prison plus a political ban in a retried insult case previously acquitted twice. These layered judicial processes and extended timelines underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against release by December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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