Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and related charges, with prosecutors seeking sentences exceeding 2,000 years in an ongoing mass trial. Turkish courts have rejected appeals for his release, while granting conditional release only to some co-defendants in April 2026. As of mid-August 2026, he continues court appearances from Marmara Prison, including recent statements joining a new opposition party, amid ongoing proceedings with no verified procedural steps or official actions indicating release before December 31. These factors sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no release in 2026, consistent with extended timelines in high-profile Turkish cases involving opposition figures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and related charges, with prosecutors seeking sentences exceeding 2,000 years in an ongoing mass trial. Turkish courts have rejected appeals for his release, while granting conditional release only to some co-defendants in April 2026. As of mid-August 2026, he continues court appearances from Marmara Prison, including recent statements joining a new opposition party, amid ongoing proceedings with no verified procedural steps or official actions indicating release before December 31. These factors sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no release in 2026, consistent with extended timelines in high-profile Turkish cases involving opposition figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Объем
$6,387Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and related charges, with prosecutors seeking sentences exceeding 2,000 years in an ongoing mass trial. Turkish courts have rejected appeals for his release, while granting conditional release only to some co-defendants in April 2026. As of mid-August 2026, he continues court appearances from Marmara Prison, including recent statements joining a new opposition party, amid ongoing proceedings with no verified procedural steps or official actions indicating release before December 31. These factors sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no release in 2026, consistent with extended timelines in high-profile Turkish cases involving opposition figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,387Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and related charges, with prosecutors seeking sentences exceeding 2,000 years in an ongoing mass trial. Turkish courts have rejected appeals for his release, while granting conditional release only to some co-defendants in April 2026. As of mid-August 2026, he continues court appearances from Marmara Prison, including recent statements joining a new opposition party, amid ongoing proceedings with no verified procedural steps or official actions indicating release before December 31. These factors sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no release in 2026, consistent with extended timelines in high-profile Turkish cases involving opposition figures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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