Arsenal’s two-point lead atop the Premier League table with two matches remaining has driven the 82.5% implied probability assigned to the Gunners lifting the title. Mikel Arteta’s side controls its destiny and faces Burnley and Crystal Palace, both sides already relegated, allowing a straightforward path to 85 points if results hold. Manchester City sits second with three fixtures left and must win all of them while hoping for Arsenal slips, though recent form shows Pep Guardiola’s team still capable of late surges. Head-to-head results this season favor City, yet the points gap and schedule strength currently outweigh that edge in trader consensus. Any injury setbacks or unexpected drops in form could reopen the race before the May 24 finale.