The EU's treaty framework and institutional design create formidable barriers to dissolution, as any fundamental breakup would require unanimous consent from all 27 member states plus complex legal processes under the Lisbon Treaty and related agreements. Traders price "No" at 97.8% because recent developments—including stable EU leadership transitions, continued coordination on Ukraine support and energy policy through 2026, and the absence of coordinated exit movements—reinforce continuity rather than fragmentation. Economic interdependence and shared institutions further anchor the bloc. While a rapid cascade of sovereign debt crises, major treaty renegotiations, or simultaneous populist-driven withdrawals could theoretically alter the trajectory before 2027, such synchronized shocks remain outside current political trajectories.