Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026 have produced airstrikes targeting IRGC assets on several Persian Gulf islands to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet Farsi Island's small IRGC Navy outpost remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority. Recent operations, including strikes near Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have focused on degrading capabilities such as air defenses and naval facilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 dates stay below 3 percent, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts amid airstrikes, sanctions, and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic resolutions that could alter island status.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$198,173 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
3%
$198,173 Объем
30 сентября
$20,903 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026 have produced airstrikes targeting IRGC assets on several Persian Gulf islands to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet Farsi Island's small IRGC Navy outpost remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority. Recent operations, including strikes near Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have focused on degrading capabilities such as air defenses and naval facilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 dates stay below 3 percent, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts amid airstrikes, sanctions, and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic resolutions that could alter island status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$198,173Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026 have produced airstrikes targeting IRGC assets on several Persian Gulf islands to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet Farsi Island's small IRGC Navy outpost remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority. Recent operations, including strikes near Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have focused on degrading capabilities such as air defenses and naval facilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 dates stay below 3 percent, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts amid airstrikes, sanctions, and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic resolutions that could alter island status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$198,173Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026 have produced airstrikes targeting IRGC assets on several Persian Gulf islands to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet Farsi Island's small IRGC Navy outpost remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority. Recent operations, including strikes near Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have focused on degrading capabilities such as air defenses and naval facilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 dates stay below 3 percent, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts amid airstrikes, sanctions, and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic resolutions that could alter island status.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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