Florida's 19th Congressional District, encompassing Naples and Fort Myers with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Republican House winner, reflecting consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for the 2026 gubernatorial primary opened the seat, prompting a crowded 13-candidate Republican primary led by Catalina Lauf (40%) and Madison Cawthorn (11%) on related prediction markets, but the field's conservative contenders pose little risk in this safe Republican stronghold. Gov. Ron DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting, signed into law early May 2026, further entrenches GOP advantages statewide, including FL-19, against a low-profile Democratic primary field of Victor Arias, Jared Kane, and Howard Sapp. The August 18 primary and November 3 general remain key dates, though Democratic upset would require extraordinary national tailwinds or GOP nominee weaknesses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-19
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-19
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
90%
Демократическая партия
11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$2,619 Объем
90%
Демократическая партия
$179 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th Congressional District, encompassing Naples and Fort Myers with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Republican House winner, reflecting consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for the 2026 gubernatorial primary opened the seat, prompting a crowded 13-candidate Republican primary led by Catalina Lauf (40%) and Madison Cawthorn (11%) on related prediction markets, but the field's conservative contenders pose little risk in this safe Republican stronghold. Gov. Ron DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting, signed into law early May 2026, further entrenches GOP advantages statewide, including FL-19, against a low-profile Democratic primary field of Victor Arias, Jared Kane, and Howard Sapp. The August 18 primary and November 3 general remain key dates, though Democratic upset would require extraordinary national tailwinds or GOP nominee weaknesses.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Объем
$2,797Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th Congressional District, encompassing Naples and Fort Myers with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Republican House winner, reflecting consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for the 2026 gubernatorial primary opened the seat, prompting a crowded 13-candidate Republican primary led by Catalina Lauf (40%) and Madison Cawthorn (11%) on related prediction markets, but the field's conservative contenders pose little risk in this safe Republican stronghold. Gov. Ron DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting, signed into law early May 2026, further entrenches GOP advantages statewide, including FL-19, against a low-profile Democratic primary field of Victor Arias, Jared Kane, and Howard Sapp. The August 18 primary and November 3 general remain key dates, though Democratic upset would require extraordinary national tailwinds or GOP nominee weaknesses.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,797Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 19th Congressional District, encompassing Naples and Fort Myers with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Republican House winner, reflecting consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for the 2026 gubernatorial primary opened the seat, prompting a crowded 13-candidate Republican primary led by Catalina Lauf (40%) and Madison Cawthorn (11%) on related prediction markets, but the field's conservative contenders pose little risk in this safe Republican stronghold. Gov. Ron DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting, signed into law early May 2026, further entrenches GOP advantages statewide, including FL-19, against a low-profile Democratic primary field of Victor Arias, Jared Kane, and Howard Sapp. The August 18 primary and November 3 general remain key dates, though Democratic upset would require extraordinary national tailwinds or GOP nominee weaknesses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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