The election night results in Florida's 28th congressional district, covering parts of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, show incumbent Republican Carlos Gimenez leading Democrat Phil Ehr by roughly 7 points with nearly all votes counted, aligning with the leading 5-10% Republican margin outcome. Redrawn district lines created an R+10 partisan lean and a heavily Hispanic electorate, while Gimenez's incumbency and fundraising advantage sustained support despite a national midterm environment. The independent candidate's small share and lack of public polling contributed to trader focus on the final certified margin rather than an upset. Late-counting urban precincts and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots could still adjust the exact spread within the favored range before resolution.