Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоFrance United Left Primary Winner
France United Left Primary Winner
Отменено 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 9%
Lydie Massard <1%
$51,595 Объем
$51,595 Объем
11 окт. 2026 г.
Отменено
57%
Marine Tondelier
29%
François Ruffin
9%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Бенжамен Люкас-Люнди
<1%
Отменено 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 9%
Lydie Massard <1%
$51,595 Объем
$51,595 Объем
11 окт. 2026 г.
Отменено
$8,298 Объем
57%
Marine Tondelier
$26,582 Объем
29%
François Ruffin
$11,243 Объем
9%
Lydie Massard
$1,474 Объем
<1%
Clémentine Autain
$3,882 Объем
<1%
Бенжамен Люкас-Люнди
$117 Объем
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$51,595Дата окончания
11 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$51,595Дата окончания
11 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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