**Graham Platner faced public allegations of sexual assault from a former girlfriend dating to late 2021, which surfaced in early July 2026 and prompted his withdrawal from Maine’s Democratic Senate nomination.** Authorities in Hancock County and the Maine State Police stated no formal complaint had been filed and no investigation was active, with officials noting victims often decline to pursue charges. The market assessed the likelihood of any federal or state indictment or charging announcement by the August 31, 2026 deadline at roughly 3 percent, reflecting the absence of procedural triggers, the brief remaining window, and the typical pace of such matters. Later campaign finance filings through October showed continued spending but no references to legal proceedings. Traders priced in the low probability based on the lack of new complaints or enforcement actions in the weeks after the allegations emerged.