Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 96.4% probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic, driven by the virus's primary rodent-borne zoonotic transmission and the limited, contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a South Atlantic cruise ship. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm only 8–11 cases and three deaths from that event, with person-to-person spread occurring solely via rare, prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or community routes. No evidence of mutations enhancing transmissibility has emerged, and by mid-summer, surveillance showed no secondary outbreaks or sustained chains. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected viral evolution enabling broader spread or gaps in remote monitoring before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПандемия хантавируса в 2026 году?
Пандемия хантавируса в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$17,843,588 Объем
$17,843,588 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$17,843,588 Объем
$17,843,588 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 96.4% probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic, driven by the virus's primary rodent-borne zoonotic transmission and the limited, contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a South Atlantic cruise ship. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm only 8–11 cases and three deaths from that event, with person-to-person spread occurring solely via rare, prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or community routes. No evidence of mutations enhancing transmissibility has emerged, and by mid-summer, surveillance showed no secondary outbreaks or sustained chains. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected viral evolution enabling broader spread or gaps in remote monitoring before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Объем
$17,843,588Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 96.4% probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic, driven by the virus's primary rodent-borne zoonotic transmission and the limited, contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a South Atlantic cruise ship. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm only 8–11 cases and three deaths from that event, with person-to-person spread occurring solely via rare, prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or community routes. No evidence of mutations enhancing transmissibility has emerged, and by mid-summer, surveillance showed no secondary outbreaks or sustained chains. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected viral evolution enabling broader spread or gaps in remote monitoring before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$17,843,588Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 96.4% probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic, driven by the virus's primary rodent-borne zoonotic transmission and the limited, contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a South Atlantic cruise ship. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm only 8–11 cases and three deaths from that event, with person-to-person spread occurring solely via rare, prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or community routes. No evidence of mutations enhancing transmissibility has emerged, and by mid-summer, surveillance showed no secondary outbreaks or sustained chains. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected viral evolution enabling broader spread or gaps in remote monitoring before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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