The primary driver behind the 97.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 is the rapid containment of the May Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 11–13 confirmed or suspected cases before ending with no sustained transmission. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and European Commission confirmed the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover, with human-to-human spread limited to prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory routes typical of pandemic pathogens. As of mid-September, quarantines concluded without secondary U.S. or international cases, aligning with hantavirus's historical pattern of sporadic, rodent-exposure-linked infections rather than epidemic growth. While a rare evolutionary shift enabling broader airborne transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic data and epidemiological surveillance show no such changes, keeping trader consensus firmly against a 2026 pandemic threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПандемия хантавируса в 2026 году?
Пандемия хантавируса в 2026 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$18,256,148 Объем
$18,256,148 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$18,256,148 Объем
$18,256,148 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver behind the 97.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 is the rapid containment of the May Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 11–13 confirmed or suspected cases before ending with no sustained transmission. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and European Commission confirmed the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover, with human-to-human spread limited to prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory routes typical of pandemic pathogens. As of mid-September, quarantines concluded without secondary U.S. or international cases, aligning with hantavirus's historical pattern of sporadic, rodent-exposure-linked infections rather than epidemic growth. While a rare evolutionary shift enabling broader airborne transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic data and epidemiological surveillance show no such changes, keeping trader consensus firmly against a 2026 pandemic threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Объем
$18,256,148Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver behind the 97.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 is the rapid containment of the May Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 11–13 confirmed or suspected cases before ending with no sustained transmission. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and European Commission confirmed the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover, with human-to-human spread limited to prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory routes typical of pandemic pathogens. As of mid-September, quarantines concluded without secondary U.S. or international cases, aligning with hantavirus's historical pattern of sporadic, rodent-exposure-linked infections rather than epidemic growth. While a rare evolutionary shift enabling broader airborne transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic data and epidemiological surveillance show no such changes, keeping trader consensus firmly against a 2026 pandemic threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$18,256,148Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The primary driver behind the 97.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 is the rapid containment of the May Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 11–13 confirmed or suspected cases before ending with no sustained transmission. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and European Commission confirmed the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover, with human-to-human spread limited to prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory routes typical of pandemic pathogens. As of mid-September, quarantines concluded without secondary U.S. or international cases, aligning with hantavirus's historical pattern of sporadic, rodent-exposure-linked infections rather than epidemic growth. While a rare evolutionary shift enabling broader airborne transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic data and epidemiological surveillance show no such changes, keeping trader consensus firmly against a 2026 pandemic threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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