Iran maintains firm governmental and military authority over Hengam Island, a small strategic outpost near Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz that supports IRGC naval and missile operations. U.S.-Iran exchanges since February 2026 have included targeted strikes on Hengam and nearby islands such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb, alongside environmental incidents like the August oil slick attributed to military activity, yet Iranian forces continue to exercise primary control without any reported transfer of sovereignty. Recent security appointments and expanded IRGC naval zones in the strait underscore Tehran’s consolidation of defensive positions. No diplomatic agreements, occupations, or international interventions have altered administration of the island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September therefore remain minimal, reflecting the absence of developments capable of shifting on-the-ground authority within those windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Хенгам больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Хенгам больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$121,546 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$121,546 Объем
31 августа
$93,998 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm governmental and military authority over Hengam Island, a small strategic outpost near Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz that supports IRGC naval and missile operations. U.S.-Iran exchanges since February 2026 have included targeted strikes on Hengam and nearby islands such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb, alongside environmental incidents like the August oil slick attributed to military activity, yet Iranian forces continue to exercise primary control without any reported transfer of sovereignty. Recent security appointments and expanded IRGC naval zones in the strait underscore Tehran’s consolidation of defensive positions. No diplomatic agreements, occupations, or international interventions have altered administration of the island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September therefore remain minimal, reflecting the absence of developments capable of shifting on-the-ground authority within those windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Объем
$121,546Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm governmental and military authority over Hengam Island, a small strategic outpost near Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz that supports IRGC naval and missile operations. U.S.-Iran exchanges since February 2026 have included targeted strikes on Hengam and nearby islands such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb, alongside environmental incidents like the August oil slick attributed to military activity, yet Iranian forces continue to exercise primary control without any reported transfer of sovereignty. Recent security appointments and expanded IRGC naval zones in the strait underscore Tehran’s consolidation of defensive positions. No diplomatic agreements, occupations, or international interventions have altered administration of the island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September therefore remain minimal, reflecting the absence of developments capable of shifting on-the-ground authority within those windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$121,546Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm governmental and military authority over Hengam Island, a small strategic outpost near Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz that supports IRGC naval and missile operations. U.S.-Iran exchanges since February 2026 have included targeted strikes on Hengam and nearby islands such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb, alongside environmental incidents like the August oil slick attributed to military activity, yet Iranian forces continue to exercise primary control without any reported transfer of sovereignty. Recent security appointments and expanded IRGC naval zones in the strait underscore Tehran’s consolidation of defensive positions. No diplomatic agreements, occupations, or international interventions have altered administration of the island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September therefore remain minimal, reflecting the absence of developments capable of shifting on-the-ground authority within those windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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