Google's recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases target stronger reasoning and agentic performance, yet current HLE leaderboards show its models trailing Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, which hold the top spots at 55-65% accuracy. The benchmark's expert-level questions across math, physics, and other domains remain far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the mid-40% to low-60% range as of mid-September 2026. Google's iterative updates and DeepMind focus on multimodal and extended-thinking capabilities could narrow the gap before year-end, though Anthropic and OpenAI continue releasing competing models that raise the bar on this ceiling test. Traders watch for any official Gemini HLE submissions or capability jumps from the latest family.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамый высокий балл Google Gemini на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
Самый высокий балл Google Gemini на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
$92,140 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
50%+
90%
55%+
34%
60%+
22%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$92,140 Объем
50%+
$30,912 Объем
90%
55%+
$35,922 Объем
34%
60%+
$15,691 Объем
22%
65%+
$5,256 Объем
12%
70%+
$4,358 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases target stronger reasoning and agentic performance, yet current HLE leaderboards show its models trailing Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, which hold the top spots at 55-65% accuracy. The benchmark's expert-level questions across math, physics, and other domains remain far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the mid-40% to low-60% range as of mid-September 2026. Google's iterative updates and DeepMind focus on multimodal and extended-thinking capabilities could narrow the gap before year-end, though Anthropic and OpenAI continue releasing competing models that raise the bar on this ceiling test. Traders watch for any official Gemini HLE submissions or capability jumps from the latest family.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Объем
$92,140Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases target stronger reasoning and agentic performance, yet current HLE leaderboards show its models trailing Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, which hold the top spots at 55-65% accuracy. The benchmark's expert-level questions across math, physics, and other domains remain far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the mid-40% to low-60% range as of mid-September 2026. Google's iterative updates and DeepMind focus on multimodal and extended-thinking capabilities could narrow the gap before year-end, though Anthropic and OpenAI continue releasing competing models that raise the bar on this ceiling test. Traders watch for any official Gemini HLE submissions or capability jumps from the latest family.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$92,140Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Google's recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases target stronger reasoning and agentic performance, yet current HLE leaderboards show its models trailing Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, which hold the top spots at 55-65% accuracy. The benchmark's expert-level questions across math, physics, and other domains remain far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the mid-40% to low-60% range as of mid-September 2026. Google's iterative updates and DeepMind focus on multimodal and extended-thinking capabilities could narrow the gap before year-end, though Anthropic and OpenAI continue releasing competing models that raise the bar on this ceiling test. Traders watch for any official Gemini HLE submissions or capability jumps from the latest family.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
41%
Да
Достигнет ли максимальный балл, набранный моделью OpenAI на Последнем Экзамене Человечества в 2026 году, 55% или больше?
77%
Да
Будет ли максимальный результат, достигнутый моделью Meta на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 55% или выше?
33%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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