**Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 55–65% as of mid-September 2026, while the strongest reported Grok 4.x models sit at 42–44% on the same expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** This gap reflects xAI’s recent model releases focusing more on general capabilities and agentic features than on saturating this particular closed-book academic test, where tool use and protocol differences can shift reported scores. With only three months remaining in 2026, traders are pricing in the low probability of a Grok breakthrough that would close the multi-point deficit against faster-moving competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI. New Grok releases or evaluation methodology changes could still move the market, but historical iteration speeds make rapid gains to 50%+ unlikely without major verified progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамый высокий балл Grok на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
Самый высокий балл Grok на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
$118,419 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
45%+
78%
50%+
51%
55%+
31%
60%+
19%
65%+
4%
$118,419 Объем
45%+
$44,141 Объем
78%
50%+
$24,577 Объем
51%
55%+
$29,114 Объем
31%
60%+
$17,653 Объем
19%
65%+
$2,934 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 55–65% as of mid-September 2026, while the strongest reported Grok 4.x models sit at 42–44% on the same expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.**
This gap reflects xAI’s recent model releases focusing more on general capabilities and agentic features than on saturating this particular closed-book academic test, where tool use and protocol differences can shift reported scores. With only three months remaining in 2026, traders are pricing in the low probability of a Grok breakthrough that would close the multi-point deficit against faster-moving competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI. New Grok releases or evaluation methodology changes could still move the market, but historical iteration speeds make rapid gains to 50%+ unlikely without major verified progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Объем
$118,419Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 55–65% as of mid-September 2026, while the strongest reported Grok 4.x models sit at 42–44% on the same expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.**
This gap reflects xAI’s recent model releases focusing more on general capabilities and agentic features than on saturating this particular closed-book academic test, where tool use and protocol differences can shift reported scores. With only three months remaining in 2026, traders are pricing in the low probability of a Grok breakthrough that would close the multi-point deficit against faster-moving competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI. New Grok releases or evaluation methodology changes could still move the market, but historical iteration speeds make rapid gains to 50%+ unlikely without major verified progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$118,419Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 55–65% as of mid-September 2026, while the strongest reported Grok 4.x models sit at 42–44% on the same expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** This gap reflects xAI’s recent model releases focusing more on general capabilities and agentic features than on saturating this particular closed-book academic test, where tool use and protocol differences can shift reported scores. With only three months remaining in 2026, traders are pricing in the low probability of a Grok breakthrough that would close the multi-point deficit against faster-moving competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI. New Grok releases or evaluation methodology changes could still move the market, but historical iteration speeds make rapid gains to 50%+ unlikely without major verified progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
45%
Да
Достигнет ли максимальный балл, набранный моделью OpenAI на Последнем Экзамене Человечества в 2026 году, 55% или больше?
77%
Да
Будет ли максимальный результат, достигнутый моделью Meta на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 55% или выше?
33%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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