**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамый высокий балл Grok на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
Самый высокий балл Grok на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
$119,351 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
45%+
81%
50%+
53%
55%+
31%
60%+
19%
65%+
4%
$119,351 Объем
45%+
$44,627 Объем
81%
50%+
$24,876 Объем
53%
55%+
$29,262 Объем
31%
60%+
$17,653 Объем
19%
65%+
$2,934 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Объем
$119,351Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$119,351Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
39%
Да
Достигнет ли максимальный балл, набранный моделью OpenAI на Последнем Экзамене Человечества в 2026 году, 55% или больше?
77%
Да
Будет ли максимальный результат, достигнутый моделью Meta на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 55% или выше?
26%
Да
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