Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, driven by a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows rather than robust hiring, with nonfarm payrolls missing expectations. Federal Reserve projections from the June FOMC meeting anticipate the rate averaging near 4.2–4.3% through year-end, while private forecasters cluster around 4.5% for the 2026 annual average amid modest GDP growth and cooling job gains of 30,000–50,000 per month. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and markets pricing potential hikes later in the year due to sticky inflation, higher rates could weigh on hiring and push unemployment higher if downside risks from slower growth materialize. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report and the September FOMC meeting with updated economic projections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$481,233 Объем
10 янв. 2026 г.
5,0%
10%
5,5%
8%
6,0%
7%
7,0%
5%
10,0%
3%
$481,233 Объем
5,0%
$123,066 Объем
10%
5,5%
$200,573 Объем
8%
6,0%
$75,518 Объем
7%
7,0%
$31,082 Объем
5%
10,0%
$50,994 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, driven by a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows rather than robust hiring, with nonfarm payrolls missing expectations. Federal Reserve projections from the June FOMC meeting anticipate the rate averaging near 4.2–4.3% through year-end, while private forecasters cluster around 4.5% for the 2026 annual average amid modest GDP growth and cooling job gains of 30,000–50,000 per month. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and markets pricing potential hikes later in the year due to sticky inflation, higher rates could weigh on hiring and push unemployment higher if downside risks from slower growth materialize. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report and the September FOMC meeting with updated economic projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Объем
$481,233Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, driven by a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows rather than robust hiring, with nonfarm payrolls missing expectations. Federal Reserve projections from the June FOMC meeting anticipate the rate averaging near 4.2–4.3% through year-end, while private forecasters cluster around 4.5% for the 2026 annual average amid modest GDP growth and cooling job gains of 30,000–50,000 per month. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and markets pricing potential hikes later in the year due to sticky inflation, higher rates could weigh on hiring and push unemployment higher if downside risks from slower growth materialize. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report and the September FOMC meeting with updated economic projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$481,233Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, driven by a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows rather than robust hiring, with nonfarm payrolls missing expectations. Federal Reserve projections from the June FOMC meeting anticipate the rate averaging near 4.2–4.3% through year-end, while private forecasters cluster around 4.5% for the 2026 annual average amid modest GDP growth and cooling job gains of 30,000–50,000 per month. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and markets pricing potential hikes later in the year due to sticky inflation, higher rates could weigh on hiring and push unemployment higher if downside risks from slower growth materialize. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report and the September FOMC meeting with updated economic projections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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