Trader consensus centers on 10–12 Democratic House incumbent primary defeats, reflecting seven confirmed losses so far in 2026 amid ongoing primaries. These include Diana DeGette (CO), John Larson (CT), Shri Thanedar (MI), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (NY), and two Texas members ousted in redistricting-driven matchups. Progressive challengers backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have driven several upsets, while historical averages for such defeats are far lower. Remaining contests, including potential additional left-flank challenges, support expectations of a modest number of further losses before the cycle ends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено10–12 45.1%
13–15 25.4%
7-9 12.0%
>15 1.6%
$23,573 Объем
$23,573 Объем
<3
1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
12%
10–12
45%
13–15
25%
>15
2%
10–12 45.1%
13–15 25.4%
7-9 12.0%
>15 1.6%
$23,573 Объем
$23,573 Объем
<3
$1,106 Объем
1%
4-6
$1,812 Объем
<1%
7-9
$11,644 Объем
12%
10–12
$4,598 Объем
45%
13–15
$2,071 Объем
25%
>15
$2,341 Объем
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus centers on 10–12 Democratic House incumbent primary defeats, reflecting seven confirmed losses so far in 2026 amid ongoing primaries. These include Diana DeGette (CO), John Larson (CT), Shri Thanedar (MI), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (NY), and two Texas members ousted in redistricting-driven matchups. Progressive challengers backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have driven several upsets, while historical averages for such defeats are far lower. Remaining contests, including potential additional left-flank challenges, support expectations of a modest number of further losses before the cycle ends.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$23,573Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus centers on 10–12 Democratic House incumbent primary defeats, reflecting seven confirmed losses so far in 2026 amid ongoing primaries. These include Diana DeGette (CO), John Larson (CT), Shri Thanedar (MI), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (NY), and two Texas members ousted in redistricting-driven matchups. Progressive challengers backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have driven several upsets, while historical averages for such defeats are far lower. Remaining contests, including potential additional left-flank challenges, support expectations of a modest number of further losses before the cycle ends.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$23,573Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus centers on 10–12 Democratic House incumbent primary defeats, reflecting seven confirmed losses so far in 2026 amid ongoing primaries. These include Diana DeGette (CO), John Larson (CT), Shri Thanedar (MI), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (NY), and two Texas members ousted in redistricting-driven matchups. Progressive challengers backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have driven several upsets, while historical averages for such defeats are far lower. Remaining contests, including potential additional left-flank challenges, support expectations of a modest number of further losses before the cycle ends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
93%
Да
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
79%
Да
У Республиканской партии будет меньше 22 губернаторских постов после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
31%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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