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icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 46%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 б.п.) 2.9%

Polymarket

$135,706 Объем

0 (0 bps) 46%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 б.п.) 2.9%

Polymarket

$135,706 Объем

0 (0 bps)

$59,230 Объем

46%

1 (25 bps)

$19,212 Объем

32%

2 (50 bps)

$32,523 Объем

12%

3 (75 б.п.)

$13,121 Объем

3%

4 (100 bps)

$5,390 Объем

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

$6,230 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to an annual 3.5% rate alongside easing energy and shelter components, has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%—despite three dissents favoring a hike—reflects this data-dependent stance, as does July's weaker jobs report. Market-implied odds heavily favor zero or one 25-basis-point increase for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader positioning ahead of the July and August CPI releases due imminently and the September FOMC meeting. Divided committee projections and resilient but not accelerating growth further anchor the consensus around limited additional policy firming.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$135,706
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to an annual 3.5% rate alongside easing energy and shelter components, has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%—despite three dissents favoring a hike—reflects this data-dependent stance, as does July's weaker jobs report. Market-implied odds heavily favor zero or one 25-basis-point increase for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader positioning ahead of the July and August CPI releases due imminently and the September FOMC meeting. Divided committee projections and resilient but not accelerating growth further anchor the consensus around limited additional policy firming.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$135,706
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Связанные

icon for Не произойдут ли снижения ставок ФРС в 2026 году?

Не произойдут ли снижения ставок ФРС в 2026 году?

86%
Да
icon for Повысит ли ФРС ставку в 2026 году?

Повысит ли ФРС ставку в 2026 году?

55%
Да
icon for Повысит ли ФРС ставку к заседанию в октябре 2026 года?

Повысит ли ФРС ставку к заседанию в октябре 2026 года?

48%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0 (0 bps)» с 46%, за ним следует «1 (25 bps)» с 32%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 46¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $135.7K с момента запуска рынка Jun 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущий фаворит для «How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» — «0 (0 bps)» с 46%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1 (25 bps)» с 32%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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