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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

3 (75 б.п.) 57%

1 (25 bps) 56%

2 (50 bps) 41%

4 (100 bps) 29%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

3 (75 б.п.) 57%

1 (25 bps) 56%

2 (50 bps) 41%

4 (100 bps) 29%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

0 (0 bps)

$0 Объем

28%

1 (25 bps)

$0 Объем

56%

2 (50 bps)

$0 Объем

41%

3 (75 б.п.)

$0 Объем

57%

4 (100 bps)

$0 Объем

29%

5+ (125+ bps)

$0 Объем

24%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «3 (75 б.п.)» с 57%, за ним следует «1 (25 bps)» с 56%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 57¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 57%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jun 23, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?» — «3 (75 б.п.)» с 57%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 57%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1 (25 bps)» с 56%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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