Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. These large eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur at a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume or sustained intensity. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and continued monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter these market-implied probabilities if a major system escalates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,078,895 Объем
$1,078,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,078,895 Объем
$1,078,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$477,307 Объем
60%
1
$260,191 Объем
35%
2
$32,241 Объем
4%
3
$26,240 Объем
1%
4
$24,441 Объем
<1%
5+
$258,475 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. These large eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur at a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume or sustained intensity. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and continued monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter these market-implied probabilities if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,078,895Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. These large eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur at a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume or sustained intensity. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and continued monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter these market-implied probabilities if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$1,078,895Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. These large eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur at a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume or sustained intensity. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and continued monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter these market-implied probabilities if a major system escalates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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