Recent primary results show a modest number of Republican House incumbents defeated for renomination, with confirmed losses including Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, alongside additional upsets that bring the cycle total into the mid-single digits. Elevated retirements—37 Republicans declining to seek re-election—have reduced the pool of contested primaries, while remaining races feature limited high-profile challenges that have not produced widespread defeats. Trader consensus around 4-6 reflects this pattern of contained turnover outside redistricting effects and historical base rates for incumbent primary performance. Outcomes above six would require additional losses in late-summer or fall contests, whereas fewer than four would depend on no further upsets among remaining incumbents.