**Republican House primary outcomes this cycle have centered on a handful of targeted defeats amid broader anti-incumbent pressures and presidential influence.** Four sitting Republican representatives—Thomas Massie, Dan Crenshaw, Andy Ogles, and Cory Mills—lost renomination bids, driven by Trump-endorsed challengers in high-profile cases, ethics controversies, and redistricting effects in states such as Texas and Tennessee. Most Republican primaries wrapped by early fall 2026, leaving limited room for additional upsets and reinforcing trader consensus around the 4-6 range. Remaining contests or unresolved runoffs could still add one or two losses, but structural factors including high overall retirements and the absence of widespread challenges against aligned incumbents make larger totals improbable.