SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько SpaceX запустит в 2026 году?
Сколько SpaceX запустит в 2026 году?
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.1%
120-139 3.5%
200 или более 2.1%
$333,898 Объем
$333,898 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
100-119
1%
120-139
15%
140-159
78%
160-179
5%
180-199
1%
200 или более
2%
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.1%
120-139 3.5%
200 или более 2.1%
$333,898 Объем
$333,898 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
100-119
$3,550 Объем
1%
120-139
$5,165 Объем
15%
140-159
$50,289 Объем
78%
160-179
$100,767 Объем
5%
180-199
$61,243 Объем
1%
200 или более
$107,069 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Открытие рынка: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Объем
$333,898Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Объем
$333,898Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы