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МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?

icon for МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?

МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?

$348,717 Объем

31 авг. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$348,717 Объем

Polymarket

31 августа

$52,844 Объем

1%

31 октября

$77,203 Объем

15%

31 декабря

$25,347 Объем

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**IAEA access to Iran's struck enrichment and conversion facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan remains limited as of mid-August 2026.** US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 heavily damaged aboveground structures at Natanz and Isfahan while impacting Fordow's underground halls; inspectors were withdrawn for safety and Iran curtailed cooperation, leaving the Agency unable to verify the status of enriched uranium stockpiles or post-strike activities at the affected sites. An interim US-Iran memorandum in June 2026 explicitly requires IAEA supervision for certain nuclear activities, including dilution of highly enriched material. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that visits to the enrichment sites would occur under the accord, with modalities, dates, and procedures under discussion, though Iran has tied full access to completion of a final agreement. The IAEA Board adopted a June 2026 resolution urging greater cooperation, and inspectors have resumed work at unaffected locations such as Bushehr. Satellite imagery continues to show limited activity or concealment measures at the three sites, while Iran has not yet facilitated the requested design information verification or inventory checks at Isfahan's tunnel complex. Upcoming diplomatic milestones, including further Vienna talks or Board sessions, could determine whether access expands before any market resolution window, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over the pace of verification amid ongoing negotiations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$348,717
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**IAEA access to Iran's struck enrichment and conversion facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan remains limited as of mid-August 2026.** US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 heavily damaged aboveground structures at Natanz and Isfahan while impacting Fordow's underground halls; inspectors were withdrawn for safety and Iran curtailed cooperation, leaving the Agency unable to verify the status of enriched uranium stockpiles or post-strike activities at the affected sites. An interim US-Iran memorandum in June 2026 explicitly requires IAEA supervision for certain nuclear activities, including dilution of highly enriched material. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that visits to the enrichment sites would occur under the accord, with modalities, dates, and procedures under discussion, though Iran has tied full access to completion of a final agreement. The IAEA Board adopted a June 2026 resolution urging greater cooperation, and inspectors have resumed work at unaffected locations such as Bushehr. Satellite imagery continues to show limited activity or concealment measures at the three sites, while Iran has not yet facilitated the requested design information verification or inventory checks at Isfahan's tunnel complex. Upcoming diplomatic milestones, including further Vienna talks or Board sessions, could determine whether access expands before any market resolution window, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over the pace of verification amid ongoing negotiations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$348,717
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря» с 22%, за ним следует «31 октября» с 14%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 22¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 22%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $348.7K с момента запуска рынка Jun 24, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?», просмотри 4 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?» — «31 декабря» с 22%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 22%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 октября» с 14%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «МАГАТЭ посещает Исфахан, Фордо или ядерный объект в Натанзе...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.