Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured the party's nomination for Idaho’s 1st Congressional District with roughly 78 percent in the May 2026 primary, advancing to face Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who won her primary with about 87 percent. The district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent GOP control since 2000, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican outcome aligns with this structural advantage, limited polling showing double-digit leads for Fulcher, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national Democratic wave, a significant candidate-specific development, or unusually high independent or third-party turnout, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоID-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
ID-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$48,155 Объем
$48,155 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
95%
Демократическая партия
4%
$48,155 Объем
$48,155 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$32,526 Объем
95%
Демократическая партия
$15,629 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured the party's nomination for Idaho’s 1st Congressional District with roughly 78 percent in the May 2026 primary, advancing to face Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who won her primary with about 87 percent. The district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent GOP control since 2000, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican outcome aligns with this structural advantage, limited polling showing double-digit leads for Fulcher, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national Democratic wave, a significant candidate-specific development, or unusually high independent or third-party turnout, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$48,155Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured the party's nomination for Idaho’s 1st Congressional District with roughly 78 percent in the May 2026 primary, advancing to face Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who won her primary with about 87 percent. The district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent GOP control since 2000, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican outcome aligns with this structural advantage, limited polling showing double-digit leads for Fulcher, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national Democratic wave, a significant candidate-specific development, or unusually high independent or third-party turnout, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$48,155Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured the party's nomination for Idaho’s 1st Congressional District with roughly 78 percent in the May 2026 primary, advancing to face Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who won her primary with about 87 percent. The district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent GOP control since 2000, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Republican outcome aligns with this structural advantage, limited polling showing double-digit leads for Fulcher, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national Democratic wave, a significant candidate-specific development, or unusually high independent or third-party turnout, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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