Recent Reserve Bank of India projections for FY 2026–27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, driven by unfavorable base effects and risks from geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and adverse weather, have anchored trader consensus around the 4.50 percent-plus outcome. Latest March 2026 readings showed headline CPI at 3.4 percent, still within the 2–6 percent tolerance band but trending higher from subdued 2025 levels near 2.1 percent. Market-implied odds reflect these forward-looking pressures over current prints, with lower ranges discounted amid expectations that food and core components could push the annual average above 4.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the next RBI monetary policy review and April–June 2026 data releases that could refine the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,50%+ 82%
1,50% до 2,24% 9.7%
2,25% – 2,99% 7.2%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 7.1%
$60,622 Объем
$60,622 Объем
<0,75%
4%
0,75% до 1,49%
2%
1,50% до 2,24%
10%
2,25% – 2,99%
7%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
7%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
10%
4,50%+
82%
4,50%+ 82%
1,50% до 2,24% 9.7%
2,25% – 2,99% 7.2%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 7.1%
$60,622 Объем
$60,622 Объем
<0,75%
4%
0,75% до 1,49%
2%
1,50% до 2,24%
10%
2,25% – 2,99%
7%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
7%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
10%
4,50%+
82%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Reserve Bank of India projections for FY 2026–27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, driven by unfavorable base effects and risks from geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and adverse weather, have anchored trader consensus around the 4.50 percent-plus outcome. Latest March 2026 readings showed headline CPI at 3.4 percent, still within the 2–6 percent tolerance band but trending higher from subdued 2025 levels near 2.1 percent. Market-implied odds reflect these forward-looking pressures over current prints, with lower ranges discounted amid expectations that food and core components could push the annual average above 4.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the next RBI monetary policy review and April–June 2026 data releases that could refine the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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