Indian military leaders have signaled heightened readiness for cross-border action against Pakistan-linked targets, with Western Command chief Lt. Gen. Manoj Kumar Katiyar stating on November 5 that India will not be deterred by Pakistan’s nuclear posture and would respond more forcefully to future provocations. This follows the May 2025 Pahalgam attack and India’s Operation Sindoor strikes on terror infrastructure, after which a brief escalation ended in a May 10 ceasefire that largely holds along the Line of Control. Persistent low-level ceasefire violations, infiltration attempts, and a September 2026 naval incident near the Arabian Sea maintain friction, while formal diplomatic channels remain closed since 2016 and the Indus Waters Treaty faces ongoing arbitration. Traders price the risk of renewed Indian strikes based on the absence of de-escalatory mechanisms and any new terror incidents that could trigger responses under India’s post-2025 deterrence approach.