Recent US-Iran talks remain stalled despite Qatari mediation, with Tehran insisting on immediate sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and full naval blockade removal before any Hormuz reopening or sustained ceasefire—conditions Washington has not accepted. Limited US strikes on Iranian targets in early November and the effective enforcement of the blockade, which has sharply curtailed Iranian crude loadings and export revenues, have reinforced trader views that the status quo will persist through the current 60-day framework. Post-midterm political dynamics and Iran’s seven demands further reduce near-term de-escalation odds. A sudden breakthrough on asset releases or compliance milestones could still shift probabilities, though markets currently price such outcomes as low-probability tail risks.