The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, shifting authority toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and officials such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Mojtaba's reported injuries from the attacks and limited public role have left day-to-day decisions more distributed among security elites, while the regime maintains formal continuity. Recent statements from senior IRGC figures underscore demands for guarantees against future strikes before any negotiations, reflecting internal priorities amid the conflict. These developments keep focus on whether further leadership adjustments occur by key dates, with traders weighing risks from health concerns, coalition pressures, or escalation in the ongoing war.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$13,674,407 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
31 мая
7%
30 июня
13%
31 декабря
34%
$13,674,407 Объем
31 мая
$1,990,780 Объем
7%
30 июня
$1,089,613 Объем
13%
31 декабря
$2,398,133 Объем
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, shifting authority toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and officials such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Mojtaba's reported injuries from the attacks and limited public role have left day-to-day decisions more distributed among security elites, while the regime maintains formal continuity. Recent statements from senior IRGC figures underscore demands for guarantees against future strikes before any negotiations, reflecting internal priorities amid the conflict. These developments keep focus on whether further leadership adjustments occur by key dates, with traders weighing risks from health concerns, coalition pressures, or escalation in the ongoing war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Объем
$13,674,407Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, shifting authority toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and officials such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Mojtaba's reported injuries from the attacks and limited public role have left day-to-day decisions more distributed among security elites, while the regime maintains formal continuity. Recent statements from senior IRGC figures underscore demands for guarantees against future strikes before any negotiations, reflecting internal priorities amid the conflict. These developments keep focus on whether further leadership adjustments occur by key dates, with traders weighing risks from health concerns, coalition pressures, or escalation in the ongoing war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$13,674,407Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, shifting authority toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and officials such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Mojtaba's reported injuries from the attacks and limited public role have left day-to-day decisions more distributed among security elites, while the regime maintains formal continuity. Recent statements from senior IRGC figures underscore demands for guarantees against future strikes before any negotiations, reflecting internal priorities amid the conflict. These developments keep focus on whether further leadership adjustments occur by key dates, with traders weighing risks from health concerns, coalition pressures, or escalation in the ongoing war.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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