Iran’s political landscape has shifted markedly since the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior security officials. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as his successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, yet he has remained largely absent from public view, issued only written statements, and appears to share authority with a collective of IRGC commanders and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Recent developments include Iranian officials outlining conditions for war termination in mid-May and preparing measures to contain economic fallout that could spark domestic unrest. These factors, alongside the ongoing conflict and institutional power realignment, form the core context shaping trader assessments of further leadership transitions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$13,693,292 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
31 мая
6%
30 июня
13%
31 декабря
34%
$13,693,292 Объем
31 мая
$2,002,430 Объем
6%
30 июня
$1,096,823 Объем
13%
31 декабря
$2,398,158 Объем
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape has shifted markedly since the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior security officials. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as his successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, yet he has remained largely absent from public view, issued only written statements, and appears to share authority with a collective of IRGC commanders and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Recent developments include Iranian officials outlining conditions for war termination in mid-May and preparing measures to contain economic fallout that could spark domestic unrest. These factors, alongside the ongoing conflict and institutional power realignment, form the core context shaping trader assessments of further leadership transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Объем
$13,693,292Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape has shifted markedly since the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior security officials. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as his successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, yet he has remained largely absent from public view, issued only written statements, and appears to share authority with a collective of IRGC commanders and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Recent developments include Iranian officials outlining conditions for war termination in mid-May and preparing measures to contain economic fallout that could spark domestic unrest. These factors, alongside the ongoing conflict and institutional power realignment, form the core context shaping trader assessments of further leadership transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$13,693,292Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political landscape has shifted markedly since the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior security officials. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as his successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, yet he has remained largely absent from public view, issued only written statements, and appears to share authority with a collective of IRGC commanders and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Recent developments include Iranian officials outlining conditions for war termination in mid-May and preparing measures to contain economic fallout that could spark domestic unrest. These factors, alongside the ongoing conflict and institutional power realignment, form the core context shaping trader assessments of further leadership transitions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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