Israeli officials have not attributed the September 30 Flydubai incident—in which an Omani co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight—to Iran or its proxies, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating it remains too early to determine involvement and investigations led by the UAE focusing on the suspect’s individual radicalization. This absence of linkage after nearly a week, combined with the attacker’s nationality and ongoing probes by Saudi and Emirati authorities, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against an accusation by October 31. New forensic or intelligence findings tying the perpetrator to Iranian networks, or a shift in Israeli political messaging amid broader regional tensions, could still alter that outlook before the deadline.