Recent polling consistently positions Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party as the largest faction ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, reflecting its security-focused centrist platform and Eisenkot’s background as former IDF chief of staff. This has driven trader consensus toward Yashar at 73%, well ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 26.5%. Final surveys from major networks project Yashar with 22–23 seats compared with 19–21 for Likud, while Naftali Bennett’s Together ranks third. Neither the anti-Netanyahu change bloc nor the pro-Netanyahu camp reaches the 61-seat majority needed to govern, leaving outcomes dependent on post-election coalition talks and Arab party support. Small parties such as Shas and Otzma Yehudit remain below 1% in market pricing due to threshold risks and limited projected gains.