**Bolsonaro remains under ongoing Supreme Court oversight for his 27-year coup-plot conviction, with house arrest extended into 2026 on health grounds by Justice Alexandre de Moraes.** Recent rulings have denied full humanitarian release despite medical procedures and appeals, while calculations indicate a closed regime until at least 2033 absent successful review or executive action. Post-October 2026 election developments, including Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead and potential second-round outcome, have raised prospects for congressional amnesty or a post-runoff injunction from Justice Kassio Nunes Marques. However, any pardon or conviction review would likely face procedural delays, full-court involvement, and institutional pushback, making release by the March 2027 cutoff uncertain. Traders price the “No” outcome at 61.5% amid these timelines and the distinction between house arrest and complete freedom from custody.