Broad-based consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions project positive real GDP growth of 0.8–1.0% for calendar 2026, underpinning the 77% market-implied probability against recession. This outlook rests on resilient domestic demand, with private consumption supported by sustained real wage gains—March readings showed nominal increases of 2.7% outpacing 1.5% inflation—and a tight labor market driving capital expenditure. Preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.8% annualized rate following a narrow escape from contraction in late 2025. While external risks from U.S. tariffs, elevated crude-oil prices, and yen volatility warrant monitoring, the positive output gap and upcoming May 17 full Q1 release plus June Tankan survey reinforce trader expectations of continued expansion rather than contraction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJapan recession in 2026?
Japan recession in 2026?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Broad-based consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions project positive real GDP growth of 0.8–1.0% for calendar 2026, underpinning the 77% market-implied probability against recession. This outlook rests on resilient domestic demand, with private consumption supported by sustained real wage gains—March readings showed nominal increases of 2.7% outpacing 1.5% inflation—and a tight labor market driving capital expenditure. Preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.8% annualized rate following a narrow escape from contraction in late 2025. While external risks from U.S. tariffs, elevated crude-oil prices, and yen volatility warrant monitoring, the positive output gap and upcoming May 17 full Q1 release plus June Tankan survey reinforce trader expectations of continued expansion rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$1,783Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Broad-based consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions project positive real GDP growth of 0.8–1.0% for calendar 2026, underpinning the 77% market-implied probability against recession. This outlook rests on resilient domestic demand, with private consumption supported by sustained real wage gains—March readings showed nominal increases of 2.7% outpacing 1.5% inflation—and a tight labor market driving capital expenditure. Preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.8% annualized rate following a narrow escape from contraction in late 2025. While external risks from U.S. tariffs, elevated crude-oil prices, and yen volatility warrant monitoring, the positive output gap and upcoming May 17 full Q1 release plus June Tankan survey reinforce trader expectations of continued expansion rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
Объем
$1,783Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Broad-based consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions project positive real GDP growth of 0.8–1.0% for calendar 2026, underpinning the 77% market-implied probability against recession. This outlook rests on resilient domestic demand, with private consumption supported by sustained real wage gains—March readings showed nominal increases of 2.7% outpacing 1.5% inflation—and a tight labor market driving capital expenditure. Preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.8% annualized rate following a narrow escape from contraction in late 2025. While external risks from U.S. tariffs, elevated crude-oil prices, and yen volatility warrant monitoring, the positive output gap and upcoming May 17 full Q1 release plus June Tankan survey reinforce trader expectations of continued expansion rather than contraction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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