The Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—centered on headquarters renovation cost overruns and related congressional testimony—has sharply lowered implied probabilities of federal charges. Launched in late 2025 under U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the inquiry involved grand jury subpoenas served in January but yielded no indictments after judicial pushback and lack of evidence. Powell has framed the effort as political pressure tied to the Fed's independent monetary policy stance amid debates over interest rates and inflation data. With the matter resolved and Powell's term winding down, traders are monitoring any potential new filings before resolution deadlines, though base rates for charging a sitting or recent Fed chair remain historically low absent concrete prosecutorial findings.