Jerome Powell’s transition from Fed Chair in May 2026 to governor through January 2028 frames the low market-implied odds of an early exit from the Board. Political pressure from the Trump administration, including prior efforts to influence the central bank and ongoing questions around Fed independence, remains the dominant driver of trader positioning, though historical precedent shows most outgoing chairs depart their governor seats shortly after their leadership term. Powell’s April 2026 statement committing to remain until a headquarters-construction probe concluded—with that matter now closed without charges—has anchored expectations of continuity. No major economic data releases, FOMC meetings, or regulatory filings in the past month have altered the balance. Traders continue to price limited near-term catalysts capable of forcing resignation before year-end.