Moonshot AI maintains a fast release cadence with its Kimi large language models, shipping major updates roughly every two to three months through 2026. Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window, launched on July 16 with weights released July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment on a K4 timeline reflects this pattern plus August reporting that Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. No official announcement, benchmarks, or date has surfaced yet, though competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5, plus Chinese rivals, favors continued acceleration. Key upcoming catalysts include any developer conference signals or compute procurement updates that could confirm an imminent reveal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKimi K4 выпущена...?
Kimi K4 выпущена...?
$17,498 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
3%
31 декабря 2026 года
14%
$17,498 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$9,489 Объем
3%
31 декабря 2026 года
$8,010 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI maintains a fast release cadence with its Kimi large language models, shipping major updates roughly every two to three months through 2026. Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window, launched on July 16 with weights released July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment on a K4 timeline reflects this pattern plus August reporting that Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. No official announcement, benchmarks, or date has surfaced yet, though competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5, plus Chinese rivals, favors continued acceleration. Key upcoming catalysts include any developer conference signals or compute procurement updates that could confirm an imminent reveal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$17,498Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI maintains a fast release cadence with its Kimi large language models, shipping major updates roughly every two to three months through 2026. Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window, launched on July 16 with weights released July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment on a K4 timeline reflects this pattern plus August reporting that Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. No official announcement, benchmarks, or date has surfaced yet, though competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5, plus Chinese rivals, favors continued acceleration. Key upcoming catalysts include any developer conference signals or compute procurement updates that could confirm an imminent reveal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,498Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI maintains a fast release cadence with its Kimi large language models, shipping major updates roughly every two to three months through 2026. Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window, launched on July 16 with weights released July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment on a K4 timeline reflects this pattern plus August reporting that Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. No official announcement, benchmarks, or date has surfaced yet, though competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5, plus Chinese rivals, favors continued acceleration. Key upcoming catalysts include any developer conference signals or compute procurement updates that could confirm an imminent reveal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы