Recent Latvian polls show a fragmented field ahead of the October 3 Saeima election, with Apvienotais saraksts (AS) at the top but SV, LPV, and the Progressives clustered within a few points, keeping second place highly contested. The May 2026 government collapse over drone incidents and coalition realignment—installing a new centre-right grouping that excluded the Progressives—has reshaped voter alignments and campaign dynamics. This volatility, combined with the 5% threshold and multi-party competition, sustains tight implied probabilities across leading contenders in the prediction market. Further shifts could arise from late polling swings, turnout differences among key voter blocs, or campaign events in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAS 28%
SV 22%
LPV 20%
PRO 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 окт. 2026 г.
AS
28%
SV
22%
LPV
20%
PRO
14%
ZZS
9%
SC
8%
LA
6%
NA
6%
ASL
6%
JV
4%
JKP
4%
MMN
3%
ST!
2%
GS
1%
AS 28%
SV 22%
LPV 20%
PRO 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 окт. 2026 г.
AS
$300 Объем
28%
SV
$46 Объем
22%
LPV
$401 Объем
20%
PRO
$58 Объем
14%
ZZS
$41 Объем
9%
SC
$25 Объем
8%
LA
$241 Объем
6%
NA
$46 Объем
6%
ASL
$72 Объем
6%
JV
$66 Объем
4%
JKP
$75 Объем
4%
MMN
$46 Объем
3%
ST!
$237 Объем
2%
GS
$62 Объем
1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).Recent Latvian polls show a fragmented field ahead of the October 3 Saeima election, with Apvienotais saraksts (AS) at the top but SV, LPV, and the Progressives clustered within a few points, keeping second place highly contested. The May 2026 government collapse over drone incidents and coalition realignment—installing a new centre-right grouping that excluded the Progressives—has reshaped voter alignments and campaign dynamics. This volatility, combined with the 5% threshold and multi-party competition, sustains tight implied probabilities across leading contenders in the prediction market. Further shifts could arise from late polling swings, turnout differences among key voter blocs, or campaign events in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
Открытие рынка: Aug 5, 2026, 7:40 AM ET
Объем
$1,717Дата окончания
3 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 7:40 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cvk.lv/lvResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).Recent Latvian polls show a fragmented field ahead of the October 3 Saeima election, with Apvienotais saraksts (AS) at the top but SV, LPV, and the Progressives clustered within a few points, keeping second place highly contested. The May 2026 government collapse over drone incidents and coalition realignment—installing a new centre-right grouping that excluded the Progressives—has reshaped voter alignments and campaign dynamics. This volatility, combined with the 5% threshold and multi-party competition, sustains tight implied probabilities across leading contenders in the prediction market. Further shifts could arise from late polling swings, turnout differences among key voter blocs, or campaign events in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
Объем
$1,717Дата окончания
3 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 7:40 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cvk.lv/lvResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Latvian polls show a fragmented field ahead of the October 3 Saeima election, with Apvienotais saraksts (AS) at the top but SV, LPV, and the Progressives clustered within a few points, keeping second place highly contested. The May 2026 government collapse over drone incidents and coalition realignment—installing a new centre-right grouping that excluded the Progressives—has reshaped voter alignments and campaign dynamics. This volatility, combined with the 5% threshold and multi-party competition, sustains tight implied probabilities across leading contenders in the prediction market. Further shifts could arise from late polling swings, turnout differences among key voter blocs, or campaign events in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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