Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government has faced repeated no-confidence motions in the National Assembly since his reappointment in late 2025, relying on Article 49.3 to secure passage of the 2026 budget after months of deadlock with opposition parties on both the left and right. The budget’s approval in early 2026, followed by survival of two no-confidence votes, has provided short-term stability while highlighting ongoing parliamentary fragmentation and the absence of a durable majority. Lecornu has since outlined priorities in energy and defense and signaled a limited cabinet reshuffle ahead of March local elections, events that could test coalition support and influence future confidence votes. Trader assessments of an imminent exit hinge on whether these pressures erode his position before scheduled milestones or trigger new opposition alliances.