**South Korea’s Democratic Party holds a legislative majority, which has blocked any realistic path to impeachment for President Lee Jae-myung despite a June 2026 National Assembly petition that quickly gathered over 100,000 signatures.** The petition met formal thresholds for consideration but stands little chance of referral or plenary action given the ruling party’s seat advantage and the two-thirds vote typically required to advance such measures. Lee’s approval ratings have declined from the low-to-mid 60s earlier in his term to the mid-to-high 40s by July 2026 amid local election controversies, including ballot shortages, and policy debates over taxes and prosecutorial powers. These pressures have fueled opposition criticism and occasional calls for accountability, yet they have not translated into cross-party legislative support or new formal proceedings. Traders therefore assign a 93.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the structural barrier of partisan control in the Assembly and the absence of any active impeachment process or qualifying scandal since Lee took office in June 2025. Resolution would require either a successful Assembly vote followed by Constitutional Court review or another extraordinary trigger before the end of 2026.