Recent polling has driven the current trader consensus favoring Nithya Raman over incumbent Karen Bass in the November 3 runoff. A mid-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey showed Raman at 39% support among likely voters to Bass’s 28%, with one-third undecided, widening the challenger’s edge from the June primary where Bass led narrowly. High unfavorability ratings for Bass, reaching 63%, alongside persistent concerns over homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety have contributed to the shift. Raman, a city councilmember backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, benefits from momentum among younger and central-city voters. An upcoming October 13 debate and efforts to consolidate support from eliminated primary candidates remain key variables before mail ballots begin.