Louisiana's 2026 Senate race remains a strong Republican hold following the May 16 jungle primary, where incumbent Bill Cassidy placed third and failed to advance, leaving a June 27 Republican runoff between Julia Letlow and John Fleming. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with the party's control of key statewide offices and voter registration advantages, underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican general election victory on November 3. Democratic runoff contenders Jamie Davis and Gary Crockett face structural barriers in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Recent polling and fundraising data show limited crossover appeal for Democrats, while the Republican primary outcome reinforced party unity heading into the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$13,549 Объем
$13,549 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican
93%
Democrat
8%
$13,549 Объем
$13,549 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican
$5,231 Объем
93%
Democrat
$8,318 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's 2026 Senate race remains a strong Republican hold following the May 16 jungle primary, where incumbent Bill Cassidy placed third and failed to advance, leaving a June 27 Republican runoff between Julia Letlow and John Fleming. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with the party's control of key statewide offices and voter registration advantages, underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican general election victory on November 3. Democratic runoff contenders Jamie Davis and Gary Crockett face structural barriers in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Recent polling and fundraising data show limited crossover appeal for Democrats, while the Republican primary outcome reinforced party unity heading into the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Объем
$13,549Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's 2026 Senate race remains a strong Republican hold following the May 16 jungle primary, where incumbent Bill Cassidy placed third and failed to advance, leaving a June 27 Republican runoff between Julia Letlow and John Fleming. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with the party's control of key statewide offices and voter registration advantages, underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican general election victory on November 3. Democratic runoff contenders Jamie Davis and Gary Crockett face structural barriers in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Recent polling and fundraising data show limited crossover appeal for Democrats, while the Republican primary outcome reinforced party unity heading into the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$13,549Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 2026 Senate race remains a strong Republican hold following the May 16 jungle primary, where incumbent Bill Cassidy placed third and failed to advance, leaving a June 27 Republican runoff between Julia Letlow and John Fleming. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with the party's control of key statewide offices and voter registration advantages, underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican general election victory on November 3. Democratic runoff contenders Jamie Davis and Gary Crockett face structural barriers in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Recent polling and fundraising data show limited crossover appeal for Democrats, while the Republican primary outcome reinforced party unity heading into the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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