Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with the largest recent events reaching magnitude 3.1 near Compton on the Newport-Inglewood fault and numerous smaller tremors below 3.0. These align with normal background rates rather than foreshock sequences or accelerated strain release. Southern California faults exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for magnitude 6.5+ events, consistent with the USGS estimate of roughly 60% probability for a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years. With just over three months remaining until the end of 2026, the compressed timeframe keeps the implied probability of a qualifying event extremely low. A sudden escalation in foreshock activity or an unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗемлетрясение магнитудой 6,5 + в Лос-Анджелесе до 2027 года?
Землетрясение магнитудой 6,5 + в Лос-Анджелесе до 2027 года?
3% вероятность
$20,096 Объем
$20,096 Объем
7 янв. 2027 г.
3% вероятность
$20,096 Объем
$20,096 Объем
7 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with the largest recent events reaching magnitude 3.1 near Compton on the Newport-Inglewood fault and numerous smaller tremors below 3.0. These align with normal background rates rather than foreshock sequences or accelerated strain release. Southern California faults exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for magnitude 6.5+ events, consistent with the USGS estimate of roughly 60% probability for a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years. With just over three months remaining until the end of 2026, the compressed timeframe keeps the implied probability of a qualifying event extremely low. A sudden escalation in foreshock activity or an unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Объем
$20,096Дата окончания
8 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with the largest recent events reaching magnitude 3.1 near Compton on the Newport-Inglewood fault and numerous smaller tremors below 3.0. These align with normal background rates rather than foreshock sequences or accelerated strain release. Southern California faults exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for magnitude 6.5+ events, consistent with the USGS estimate of roughly 60% probability for a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years. With just over three months remaining until the end of 2026, the compressed timeframe keeps the implied probability of a qualifying event extremely low. A sudden escalation in foreshock activity or an unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Объем
$20,096Дата окончания
8 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with the largest recent events reaching magnitude 3.1 near Compton on the Newport-Inglewood fault and numerous smaller tremors below 3.0. These align with normal background rates rather than foreshock sequences or accelerated strain release. Southern California faults exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for magnitude 6.5+ events, consistent with the USGS estimate of roughly 60% probability for a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years. With just over three months remaining until the end of 2026, the compressed timeframe keeps the implied probability of a qualifying event extremely low. A sudden escalation in foreshock activity or an unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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