Marine Le Pen remains a National Assembly deputy and RN group leader following her July 2026 appeal court ruling in the European Parliament funds case, which upheld the embezzlement conviction but shortened the firm ineligibility period so that it had already expired, restoring her eligibility at that stage. She promptly confirmed her 2027 presidential candidacy and filed a cassation appeal, whose outcome could determine whether a longer or immediate ban takes effect and removes her from the lower house. Recent Senate gains by RN and her party's role in budget negotiations underscore institutional entrenchment, yet the pending cassation decision and any enforcement of ineligibility represent the dominant near-term catalyst for removal. Traders weigh the timing of a final ruling against historical patterns of suspended sentences and procedural delays in French political cases.