Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMD-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MD-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$24,585 Объем
$24,585 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
5%
$24,585 Объем
$24,585 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,057 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$16,528 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$24,585Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$24,585Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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